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2021 Icelandic parliamentary election

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2021 Icelandic parliamentary election
Iceland
← 2017 25 September 2021 2024 →
All 63 seats in the Althing
32 seats needed for a majority
Turnout80.09%
Party Leader Vote % Seats +/–
Independence Bjarni Benediktsson 24.39 16 0
Progressive Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson 17.27 13 +5
Left-Green Katrín Jakobsdóttir 12.57 8 −3
Social Democratic Logi Már Einarsson 9.93 6 −1
People's Inga Sæland 8.85 6 +2
Pirates Collective leadership[a] 8.63 6 0
Viðreisn Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir 8.33 5 +1
Centre Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson 5.45 3 −4
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
Results by constituency
Prime Minister before Prime Minister after election
Katrín Jakobsdóttir
Left-Green		 Katrín Jakobsdóttir
Left-Green

Parliamentary elections were held in Iceland on 25 September 2021 to elect the members of the Althing.[1] Following the elections, the three parties in the ruling coalition government – the Independence Party, Progressive Party and Left-Green Movement – agreed to continue in office, with Katrín Jakobsdóttir of the Left-Green Movement remaining Prime Minister despite her party being the smallest of the three.[2][3] It was the first time an incumbent government had retained power in an election since the 2008 financial crisis.[4]

Background

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2017 parliamentary election

[edit]
Main article: 2017 Icelandic parliamentary election

The 2017 parliamentary election was called after the collapse of the coalition government between the Independence Party, Reform Party, and Bright Future after the withdrawal of the latter over a breach of trust involving a request to grant a convicted child sex offender "restored honor" from the father of Prime Minister Bjarni Benediktsson.[5][6][7] In the 2017 election, the Independence Party lost 5 seats and was reduced to 16, while the Reform Party lost 3 to win 4, and Bright Future was eliminated from the Althing entirely. The Left-Green Movement gained 1 seat to win 11, the Social Democratic Alliance gained 4 seats to win 7, the Progressive Party remained steady with 8 seats, and the Pirate Party lost 4 seats and was reduced to 6 in total. Two parties entered the Althing for the first time, with the People's Party securing 4 seats and the Centre Party winning 7 seats.[8]

With 16 seats and 25% of the vote, the Independence Party saw its second-worst electoral performance in its history in terms of vote percentage, the worst being the 2009 election, and tied its record low number of seats.[9] A total of 24 women were elected to the Althing, compared to 30 in the 2016 election.[10] Of those elected to the Althing, 19 were new, but this was considerably lower than in 2016 with 32.[11]

Government formation

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Main article: 2017 Icelandic parliamentary election § Government formation

On 30 October 2017 President Guðni Th. Jóhannesson met with the leaders of the eight parliamentary parties.[12] The four former opposition parties held informal talks,[13] with the Progressive Party in pole position to determine whether the Independence Party or the Left-Greens would lead the next government.[14] After meeting with Jóhannesson, Left-Green leader Katrín Jakobsdóttir declared that she wanted to form a government with the four former opposition parties,[15] noting that though a coalition with additional parties would provide more than 32 seats, it was out of consideration before a four-party coalition was first attempted.[16] On 2 November, Guðni Th. Jóhannesson granted Katrín Jakobsdóttir, leader of the Left-Green Movement, the mandate to form a coalition between her party, the Progressives, Social Democratic Alliance, and Pirates,[17] the four having agreed to begin formal coalition talks.[18]

On 6 November, after the Progressives announced that they would not continue talks over difficult issues with such a thin majority, Katrín Jakobsdóttir announced that she would return her mandate.[19] In the following days, the leaders of the Left-Greens, Independence Party, and Progressive Party discussed the possibility of forming a coalition together, with the Left-Greens insistent that Katrín become prime minister in that case,[20] an idea supported by the Progressives;[21] in exchange, demissionary prime minister Bjarni Benediktsson would be appointed finance minister.[22] Talks between the three parties were completed swiftly, and after meeting with Katrín on 28 November, president Guðni formally granted her the mandate to lead a government with the Independence Party and Progressive Party, pending the support of each of the parties, with the new government seated on 30 November.[23] According to Article 22 of the constitution, the president must convene the newly elected Althing within 10 weeks of the election.[24]

Electoral system

[edit]
Further information: Elections in Iceland and Politics of Iceland

The 63 members of the Althing were elected by open list proportional representation in six multi-member constituencies, with 54 seats distributed between parties at the constituency level with no electoral threshold and 9 leveling seats assigned to party lists at the national level with a threshold of 5 percent required in order to ensure proportionality with the election result.[25] The 54 constituency seats were distributed within each constituency according to the D'Hondt method.[26] Election lists were determined by parties. Voters had the option of marking preferential votes for particular candidates of the party they vote for, which can result in the order of the candidates being altered.[25][27]

In the 2017 election, the Social Democratic Alliance received 7 seats – fewer than the Progressive Party, which came third in number of seats – despite the fact that it came third in the overall vote,[28] with the Centre Party similarly receiving more votes but securing fewer seats than the Progressive Party.[8] In the aftermath of the election, two professors at the University of Akureyri suggested that there was no need for a national constituency to allocate equalization seats, and that 15 leveling seats would be necessary to ensure proportionality in the future.[29] In addition, the imbalance in number of votes between constituencies nearly violated the level stipulated in the constitution, with 2,690 eligible voters per seat in the Northwest constituency compared to 5,346 in the Southwest constituency, a ratio of 199%, just short of the constitutional limit of 200%.[30]

Date

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Per Article 20 in Chapter V of Act No. 24 from the 16 May 2000 Law Concerning Parliamentary Elections to the Althing, last amended in 2017, elections must be held no later than the same weekday of the month four years after the previous elections, counting from the turn of the month;[31] because the 2017 parliamentary took place on the fourth Saturday in October, the latest possible date for the next election would be 23 October 2021.[32]

Members of the opposition parties had called for the election to be scheduled for the spring of 2021, arguing that Icelandic elections are traditionally held during the spring — a tradition broken only by the premature elections in autumn of 2016 and 2017 – and that autumn elections give a newly-formed government too little time to prepare next year's budget.[33] Finance Minister Bjarni Benediktsson dismissed those arguments, saying that gaining power had involved "blood, sweat and tears", and he had no interest in giving it away half a year earlier than required.[34] On 24 July 2020, Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir announced that the it would take place on 25 September 2021, a month earlier than required, calling the decision "a compromise".[1]

Political parties

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See also: List of political parties in Iceland

The table below lists political parties represented in the Althing after the 2017 parliamentary election and parties which were on the ballot in at least one constituency in 2021.

Name Ideology Position Leader 2017 result Before election
Votes (%) Seats
D Independence Party
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 		Liberal conservatism Centre-right to right-wing Bjarni Benediktsson 25.2%
16 / 63
16 / 63
V Left-Green Movement
Vinstrihreyfingin – grænt framboð 		Eco-socialism Centre-left to left-wing Katrín Jakobsdóttir 16.9%
11 / 63
9 / 63
B Progressive Party
Framsóknarflokkurinn 		Nordic agrarianism Centre to centre-right Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson 10.7%
8 / 63
8 / 63
S Social Democratic Alliance
Samfylkingin 		Social democracy Centre-left Logi Már Einarsson 12.1%
7 / 63
8 / 63
M Centre Party
Miðflokkurinn 		Populism Centre-right Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson 10.9%
7 / 63
9 / 63
P Pirate Party
Píratar 		Pirate politics Syncretic None[a] 9.2%
6 / 63
7 / 63
F People's Party
Flokkur fólksins 		Disability rights Centre-left to right-wing Inga Sæland 6.9%
4 / 63
2 / 63
C Reform Party
Viðreisn 		Liberalism Centre-right Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir 6.7%
4 / 63
4 / 63
J Icelandic Socialist Party
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 		Socialism Left-wing Gunnar Smári New
0 / 63
0 / 63
O Liberal Democratic Party
Frjálslyndi lýðræðisflokkurinn 		Classical liberalism Right-wing Guðmundur Franklín Jónsson New
0 / 63
0 / 63
Y Responsible Future
Ábyrg framtíð 		Right-libertarianism Right-wing Jóhannes Loftsson New
0 / 63
0 / 63

Opinion polls

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Main article: Opinion polling for the 2021 Icelandic parliamentary election

Graphical summary

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30 day moving average of polls from the election in 2017 to the next

D = Independence Party, V = Left-Green Movement, S = Social Democratic Alliance, M = Centre Party, B = Progressive Party, P = Pirate Party, F = People's Party, C = Reform Party, J = Socialist Party.

Results

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Compared to polling, the Progressive Party and the People's Party performed better than expectations, while the Social Democratic Alliance, the Reform Party, the Pirate Party, and the new Icelandic Socialist Party performed slightly worse. The Centre Party saw its vote percentage and seat count reduced by half compared to the prior elections, while the Progressive Party saw a vote percentage increase of over 6% and a seat increase of 5. The governing grand coalition of the Independence Party, the Left-Green Movement, and the Progressive Party were expected to negotiate to continue their cooperation.[35][36]

On 9 October, Birgir Þórarinsson, who was originally elected to represent the Centre Party, announced that he was defecting to the Independence Party, making him the 17th member of the Althing for the Independence Party and leaving the Centre Party with just two members.[37]

PartyVotes%Seats+/–
Independence Party48,70824.39160
Progressive Party34,50117.2713+5
Left-Green Movement25,11412.578–3
Social Democratic Alliance19,8259.936–1
People's Party17,6728.856+2
Pirate Party17,2338.6360
Reform Party16,6288.335+1
Centre Party10,8795.453–4
Icelandic Socialist Party8,1814.100New
Liberal Democratic Party8450.420New
Responsible Future1440.070New
Total199,730100.00630
Valid votes199,73097.92
Invalid/blank votes4,2492.08
Total votes203,979100.00
Registered voters/turnout254,68180.09
Source: Statistics Iceland

By constituency

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Constituency D B V S F P C M
Reykjavík North 20.9 12.3 15.9 12.6 7.7 12.8 7.7 3.5
Reykjavík South 22.8 11.5 14.7 13.3 8.9 10.9 8.6 4.1
Southwest 30.2 14.5 12.1 8.1 7.6 8.3 11.4 4.5
Northwest 22.5 25.8 11.5 6.9 8.8 6.3 6.2 7.4
Northeast 18.5 25.6 12.9 10.5 8.6 5.3 5.4 8.9
South 24.6 23.9 7.4 7.6 12.9 5.6 6.2 7.4
Constituency D B V S F P C M Total
Reykjavík North 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 0 11
Reykjavík South 3 1 2 1 1 2 1 0 11
Southwest 4 2 1 1 1 2 2 0 13
Northwest 2 3 1 0 1 0 0 1 8
Northeast 2 3 2 1 1 0 0 1 10
South 3 3 0 1 1 0 1 1 10

Recounts

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It was initially reported that 33 women and 30 men were elected, making Iceland the first European nation to have a female-majority parliament.[38] Among them was Lenya Rún Taha Karim of the Pirate Party, who at 21 would become the youngest MP in Iceland's history.[39] Following a recount in the Northwest Constituency, the representation became a majority of men.[40] The Left-Green Movement and the Pirate Party both requested recounts in the South Constituency.[41]

Government formation

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On 21 October, the Left-Green Movement, the Independence Party, and the Progressive Party were negotiating a continued coalition with Katrín remaining Prime Minister. The coalition talks focused on energy and climate issues.[42] On 28 November, the three parties agreed on a renewed coalition.[43][44][45]

Notes

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  1. ^ a b The Pirate Party rejects the regular leadership model. A new formal chair is chosen at the start of each parliamentary session by coin toss. Their formal chairperson for the 2021–2022 period was Halldóra Mogensen.

References

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  1. ^ a b Kristjánsson, Alexander (24 July 2020). "Kosið 25. september 2021". MBL.is (in Icelandic). Archived from the original on 29 June 2021. Retrieved 27 November 2020.
  2. ^ Hardarson, Ólafur Th; Kristinsson, Gunnar Helgi (2022). "Iceland: Political Developments and Data in 2021: First Government Survival since the Financial Crisis". European Journal of Political Research Political Data Yearbook. 61 (1): 214–224. doi:10.1111/2047-8852.12354. ISSN 2047-8844. S2CID 249531050.
  3. ^ Helgason, Agnar Freyr; Harðarson, Ólafur Þ.; Ólafsson, Jón Gunnar; Önnudóttir, Eva H.; Þórisdóttir, Hulda (2022). "Electoral politics after the crisis: Change, fluctuations and stability in the 2021 Althingi Election". Stjórnmál og stjórnsýsla. 18 (1): 1–26. doi:10.13177/irpa.a.2022.18.1.1. ISSN 1670-679X. S2CID 250012505.
  4. ^ Hardarson, Ólafur Th. (2023). "Iceland: Political Developments and Data in 2022: Back to Normal after Covid—Government Popularity Goes Down". European Journal of Political Research Political Data Yearbook. 62 (1): 230–238. doi:10.1111/2047-8852.12397. ISSN 2047-8844. S2CID 214060768.
  5. ^ Brynjólfur Þór Guðmundsson (15 September 2017). "Benedikt segir sig frá málum um uppreist æru". RÚV. Archived from the original on 20 October 2017. Retrieved 30 October 2017.
  6. ^ Ásrún Brynja Ingvarsdóttir (15 September 2017). "Viðreisn vill forsætis-og dómsmálaráðherra frá". RÚV. Archived from the original on 7 November 2017. Retrieved 30 October 2017.
  7. ^ Guðmundur Magnússon (17 September 2017). "Aftur tími óstöðugleikans". Morgunblaðið. Archived from the original on 7 November 2017. Retrieved 30 October 2017.
  8. ^ a b "Úrslit Alþingiskosninga í október 2017". Morgunblaðið. 29 October 2017. Archived from the original on 1 November 2017. Retrieved 1 November 2017.
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  15. ^ Hulda Hólmkelsdóttir (30 October 2017). "Katrín byrjuð að ræða ríkisstjórnarsamstarf við hina stjórnarandstöðuflokkana". Vísir. Archived from the original on 3 November 2017. Retrieved 3 November 2017.
  16. ^ Sólrún Lilja Ragnarsdóttir (1 November 2017). "Þarf að ákveða að fara áfram eða hætta". Morgunblaðið. Archived from the original on 3 November 2017. Retrieved 3 November 2017.
  17. ^ "Katrín komin með umboðið". Morgunblaðið. 2 November 2017. Archived from the original on 4 November 2017. Retrieved 2 November 2017.
  18. ^ Elín Margrét Böðvarsdóttir (2 November 2017). "Katrín mætt á fund forseta". Morgunblaðið. Archived from the original on 2 November 2017. Retrieved 3 November 2017.
  19. ^ Sólrún Lilja Ragnarsdóttir (6 November 2017). "Katrín skilar forsetanum umboðinu". Morgunblaðið. Archived from the original on 6 November 2017. Retrieved 6 November 2017.
  20. ^ Agnes Bragadóttir (9 November 2017). "Þrír að hefja viðræður". Morgunblaðið. Archived from the original on 10 November 2017. Retrieved 10 November 2017.
  21. ^ Sólrún Lilja Ragnarsdóttir (10 November 2017). "Þrír flokkar halda áfram óformlegum viðræðum". Morgunblaðið. Archived from the original on 10 November 2017. Retrieved 10 November 2017.
  22. ^ Agnes Bragadóttir (11 November 2017). "Sætta sig við Katrínu í forsæti". Morgunblaðið. Archived from the original on 11 November 2017. Retrieved 11 November 2017.
  23. ^ Jón Pétur Jónsson (28 November 2017). "Katrín fær stjórnarmyndunarumboðið". Morgunblaðið. Archived from the original on 28 November 2017. Retrieved 28 November 2017.
  24. ^ Sigtryggur Sigtryggsson (1 November 2017). "Fjárlög knýja á um að Alþingi komi saman". Morgunblaðið. Archived from the original on 3 November 2017. Retrieved 3 November 2017.
  25. ^ a b Ísland, Alþingiskosningar, 27. April 2013: Úttektarskýrsla (Report). OSCE/ODIHR. 24 June 2013. Archived from the original on 14 September 2016. Retrieved 30 October 2017.
  26. ^ "Útreikningar við úthlutun jöfnunarsæta". Kosningavefur Dómsmála- og Mannréttindaráðuneytisins. 27 April 2013. Archived from the original on 2 November 2017. Retrieved 30 October 2017.
  27. ^ Helgason, Þorkell (1 March 2009). "Apportionment of Seats to the Althingi, the Icelandic Parliament" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on 8 December 2020. Retrieved 28 November 2020.
  28. ^ Jóhann Ólafsson (29 October 2017). ""Haa, nei! Ég var að skoða þetta"". Morgunblaðið. Archived from the original on 1 November 2017. Retrieved 3 November 2017.
  29. ^ Ingvar Þór Björnsson (29 October 2017). "Fjölga þurfi jöfnunarsætum í fimmtán". Vísir. Archived from the original on 7 November 2017. Retrieved 3 November 2017.
  30. ^ "Vægi atkvæða nær tvöfalt í NV-kjördæmi". Morgunblaðið. 31 October 2017. Archived from the original on 2 November 2017. Retrieved 3 November 2017.
  31. ^ "24/2000: Lög um kosningar til Alþingis". Alþingi. 1 September 2017. Archived from the original on 30 October 2017. Retrieved 30 October 2017.
  32. ^ "Atkvæðagreiðsla utan kjörfundar hefst í dag". Morgunblaðið. 20 September 2017. Archived from the original on 7 November 2017. Retrieved 30 October 2017.
  33. ^ "Lýðræðismál að kjósa að vori". mbl.is. 26 February 2020. Archived from the original on 28 February 2020. Retrieved 1 December 2020.
  34. ^ "Bjarni í Silfrinu: "Það kostaði blóð svita og tár að komast til valda"". DV. 23 February 2020. Archived from the original on 24 February 2020. Retrieved 1 December 2020.
  35. ^ "Iceland government poised to win majority, but future uncertain". Al Jazeera. 26 September 2021. Archived from the original on 16 October 2021. Retrieved 16 October 2021.
  36. ^ Fontaine, Andie Sophia Fontaine (26 September 2021). "Iceland's coalition government set to retain power after election". Euronews. Archived from the original on 16 October 2021. Retrieved 16 October 2021. Updated 27 September 2021{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: postscript (link)
  37. ^ Fontaine, Andie Sophia (11 October 2021). "From Iceland — Independence Party Gains New MP, Centre Party Loses One". The Reykjavik Grapevine (in Icelandic). Archived from the original on 11 October 2021. Retrieved 13 October 2021.
  38. ^ "Iceland elects Europe's first women-majority parliament". CNN. Reuters. 26 September 2021. Archived from the original on 26 September 2021. Retrieved 26 September 2021.
  39. ^ "Kosningasigur kvenna vekur heimsathygli". Morgunblaðið (in Icelandic). 26 September 2021. Archived from the original on 26 September 2021. Retrieved 26 September 2021.
  40. ^ Gronholt-pedersen, Jacob; Jacobsen, Stine (26 September 2021). "Iceland will have a male-majority parliament after all, election recount shows". Reuters. Archived from the original on 26 September 2021. Retrieved 26 September 2021.
  41. ^ Óttar Kolbeinsson Proppé (26 September 2021). "Fleiri vilja endurtalningu í Suðurkjördæmi". Vísir.is (in Icelandic). Archived from the original on 27 September 2021. Retrieved 27 September 2021.
  42. ^ Ciric, Jelena (21 October 2021). "Energy and Climate Issues Biggest Stumbling Blocks in Coalition Talks". Iceland Review. Archived from the original on 21 October 2021. Retrieved 25 October 2021.
  43. ^ "Iceland's ruling coalition agrees on new government". France 24. Agence France-Presse. 28 November 2021. Archived from the original on 28 November 2021. Retrieved 3 December 2021.
  44. ^ "Iceland's left-right coalition agrees to take another term". Reuters. 28 November 2021. Archived from the original on 30 November 2021. Retrieved 3 December 2021.
  45. ^ "Katrin Jakobsdottir, Iceland's Staunch Feminist PM, Begins Second Term". Voice of America. 28 November 2021. Archived from the original on 29 November 2021. Retrieved 15 December 2021.
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