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2021 Scottish Parliament election

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2021 Scottish Parliament election
← 2016 6 May 2021 (2021-05-06) Next →
All 129 seats to the Scottish Parliament
65 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
TurnoutConstituency – 63.5% Increase7.7pp
Regional – 63.5% Increase7.7pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Nicola_Sturgeon_2021.jpg
Douglas Ross 2021.jpg
Anas Sarwar MSP.jpg
Leader Nicola Sturgeon Douglas Ross Anas Sarwar
Party SNP Conservative Labour
Leader since 14 November 2014 5 August 2020 27 February 2021
Leader's seat Glasgow Southside Highlands and Islands[a] Glasgow
Last election 63 seats 31 seats 24 seats
Seats before 61 30 23
Seats won 64 31 22
Seat change Increase 1 Steady Decrease 2
Constituency vote 1,291,204 592,526 584,392
% and swing 47.7% Increase1.2% 21.9% Decrease0.1% 21.6% Decrease1.0%
Regional vote 1,094,374 637,131 485,819
% and swing 40.3% Decrease1.4% 23.5% Increase0.6% 17.9% Decrease1.2%
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Lorna Slater MSP and Patrick Harvie MSP.jpg
Official Portrait of Willie Rennie MSP.jpg
Leader Lorna Slater /
Patrick Harvie 		Willie Rennie
Party Scottish Green Liberal Democrats
Leader since 1 August 2019 (Slater) /
22 November 2008 (Harvie) 		17 May 2011
Leader's seat Lothian (Slater) /
Glasgow (Harvie) 		North East Fife
Last election 6 seats 5 seats
Seats before 5 5
Seats won 8 4
Seat change Increase 2 Decrease 1
Constituency vote 34,990 187,816
% and swing 1.3% Increase0.7% 6.9% Decrease0.9%
Regional vote 220,324 137,151
% and swing 8.1% Increase1.5% 5.1% Decrease0.1%
The map shows the election results in single-member constituencies. The additional member MSPs in the 8 regions are shown around the map.
First Minister before election

Nicola Sturgeon
SNP

First Minister after election

Nicola Sturgeon
SNP

The 2021 Scottish Parliament election took place on 6 May 2021 under the provisions of the Scotland Act 1998. All 129 Members of the Scottish Parliament were elected in the sixth election since the parliament was re-established in 1999. The election was held alongside the Senedd election in Wales, English local elections, London Assembly and mayoral election and the Hartlepool by-election.

The election campaign started on 25 March 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic in Scotland. Parliament was officially dissolved on 5 May, the day before the election.[3] The main parties fielding candidates were: the Scottish National Party (SNP), led by First Minister Nicola Sturgeon; the Scottish Conservatives, led by Douglas Ross; Scottish Labour, led by Anas Sarwar; the Scottish Liberal Democrats, led by Willie Rennie, and the Scottish Greens, jointly led Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater. Of those five parties, three had changed their leader since the 2016 election.

Newer parties set up since the 2016 election included: Reform UK Scotland, led by Michelle Ballantyne; the Alba Party, led by former First Minister and SNP leader Alex Salmond; and All for Unity, led by George Galloway. These parties only competed for seats on the regional lists. They all failed to win any seats.

The election resulted in the SNP winning a fourth consecutive term in government. They won 64 seats, a net increase of one. The SNP gained Edinburgh Central, Ayr, and East Lothian, as well as winning the largest share of the popular vote and the largest number of constituency seats in any Scottish Parliament election (62).[4] The Greens won eight seats, their best result to date at a Scottish Parliament election, while the Conservatives retained second place with 31 seats. Labour had its worst-ever result with 22 seats, and the lowest share of the vote in both constituency and list votes for either Westminster or Holyrood since 1910. The Liberal Democrats (Lib Dems) also had their worst showing at a Holyrood election to date, winning only four seats.[5]

The SNP and the Greens, both of which support Scottish independence, won 72 of the 129 seats in the parliament. Unionist parties (that is, those against independence) achieved a small majority of votes in constituency contests, whilst pro-independence parties achieved a small majority in the regional lists.[6] The turnout was 63.5%, which is the highest ever at a Scottish Parliament election. Following the election, the third Sturgeon government was formed. It initially consisted of just the SNP, but later included Slater and Harvie of the Scottish Greens as junior ministers after the two parties negotiated a power-sharing agreement.[7]

Background

[edit]

Electoral events

[edit]

2016 Scottish Parliament election

[edit]

At the 2016 election, the ruling Scottish National Party (SNP) lost its parliamentary majority but was able to continue governing under Nicola Sturgeon as a minority administration.[8] At the same election, the Conservatives overtook Labour to place second, whilst the Greens overtook the Liberal Democrats to place fourth.[8] No representatives of minor parties were elected to the Parliament.[8]

Other elections

[edit]

Four further elections affecting Scotland took place between the 2016 and 2021 Scottish Parliament elections:

  • May 2017: Scottish local government elections. The SNP retained its position as the largest party in terms of votes and councillors. The Conservatives displaced Labour as the second largest party, while the Liberal Democrats suffered a net loss of councillors despite increasing their share of the vote.[9]
  • June 2017: United Kingdom general election. The SNP lost 21 of its MPs, winning 35 seats. The Conservatives won 13 seats, with their highest vote share in any election in Scotland since 1979. Labour won seven seats, while the Liberal Democrats won four.[10]
  • May 2019: European Parliament election. This was dominated by the impending Brexit-deadline. The SNP won three of the six seats in Scotland, with the Brexit Party, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats each winning one seat.[11]
  • December 2019: United Kingdom general election. The SNP increased its share of the vote, reclaiming thirteen of the seats they lost in 2017. The Conservatives won six Scottish seats with a net lost of seven. The Liberal Democrats won four seats with no net losses, but their leader, Jo Swinson, lost her own seat to the SNP. Labour was reduced to a single Scottish seat, a net loss of six.[12]

Leadership changes

[edit]

Three parties underwent leadership changes during the parliamentary term leading up to the election. In August 2017, Kezia Dugdale resigned as leader of Scottish Labour and was replaced by Richard Leonard.[13] In January 2021, less than four months before the election, Leonard resigned.[14] Anas Sarwar won the subsequent leadership election.[15]

In August 2019, Lorna Slater and Patrick Harvie became co-leaders of the Scottish Greens.[16]

Also in August 2019, Ruth Davidson resigned as leader of the Scottish Conservatives and was succeeded by Jackson Carlaw.[17] Carlaw resigned as leader in July 2020,[18] with Douglas Ross winning the subsequent leadership election unopposed.[19]

Expansion of the electorate

[edit]

This is the first election after the passage of the Scottish Elections (Franchise and Representation) Act, which extended the franchise to those serving prison sentences of 12 months or less.[20][21] In 2005, the United Kingdom was found in breach of Protocol 1, Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights in regards to prisoner voting rights in the European Court of Human Rights as a result of Hirst v United Kingdom (No 2); the Act brings Scotland in line with the court ruling.[22]

This act also allows all foreign nationals resident in Scotland to vote and all those with indefinite leave to remain or equivalent status, including pre–settled status in the United Kingdom, to stand as candidates.[23][20][24] A BBC News report in April 2021 said that there were around 55,000 foreign nationals who had been given the right to vote as a result of these changes, including 20,000 refugees.[24]

Date

[edit]

Under the Scotland Act 1998, an ordinary general election to the Scottish Parliament would normally have been held on the first Thursday in May four years after the 2016 election, i.e. in May 2020.[25] This would have clashed with the proposed date of a UK general election, although this became a moot point when a snap UK general election was held in June 2017 (a further UK general election was held in December 2019).[26] In November 2015, the Scottish Government published a Scottish Elections (Dates) Bill, which proposed to extend the term of the Parliament to five years.[26] That Bill was passed by the Scottish Parliament on 25 February 2016 and received Royal Assent on 30 March 2016, setting the new date for the election as 6 May 2021.[27]

The Scottish Elections (Dates) Act did not affect the legal possibilities for the Parliament to be dissolved earlier, those being;

  • That the date of the poll may be varied by up to one month either way by the monarch, on the proposal of the Presiding Officer.[25]
  • If Parliament itself resolves that it should be dissolved, with at least two-thirds of the Members (i.e. 86 Members) voting in favour, the Presiding Officer proposes a date for an extraordinary general election and the Parliament is dissolved by the monarch by royal proclamation.[28]
  • If Parliament fails to nominate one of its members to be First Minister within 28 days, irrespective of whether at the beginning or in the middle of a parliamentary term.[28] Therefore, if the First Minister resigned, Parliament would then have 28 days to elect a successor and if no new First Minister was elected then the Presiding Officer would ask for Parliament to be dissolved. This process could also be triggered if the First Minister lost a vote of confidence by a simple majority, as they must then resign.

Nevertheless, no extraordinary general elections have been held to date. Any extraordinary general election would be in addition to the ordinary general elections, unless held less than six months before the due date of an ordinary general election, in which case it would supplant it.[28] This would not affect the year in which the subsequent ordinary general election would be held.[28]

On 16 November 2020, the Scottish General Election (Coronavirus) Bill was introduced.[29] This draft legislation stated that while the next election was intended to be held on 6 May 2021, the Presiding Officer would gain the power to postpone the election by up to six months if the spread of COVID-19 made that date impractical.[29] The bill also proposed to change the date of dissolution to the day before the election, meaning that the Parliament could be recalled during the election period.[29] The bill was enacted and received Royal Assent on 29 January 2021.[30] Parliament was in fact recalled on 12 April, to allow MSPs to mark the death of Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh.[31]

Retiring MSPs

[edit]
MSP Constituency/Region First elected Party Date announced
Neil Findlay Lothian 2011 Labour 28 May 2019[32][33]
Mary Fee West Scotland 2011 7 August 2019[32][34][35]
John Finnie Highlands and Islands 2011 Green 27 August 2019[32][36]
Elaine Smith Central Scotland 1999 Labour 3 September 2019[32][37]
Ruth Davidson Edinburgh Central 2011 Conservative 6 October 2019[32][38]
Bruce Crawford Stirling 1999 SNP 18 February 2020[32][39]
Richard Lyle Uddingston and Bellshill 2011 20 February 2020[32][40]
Gail Ross Caithness, Sutherland and Ross 2016 27 February 2020[32][41]
Michael Russell Argyll and Bute 1999 1 March 2020[32][42]
Stewart Stevenson Banffshire and Buchan Coast 2001 1 March 2020[32][42]
Mark McDonald Aberdeen Donside 2011 Independent[b] 5 March 2020[32][43]
Aileen Campbell Clydesdale 2007 SNP 8 March 2020[32][44]
Margaret Mitchell Central Scotland 2003 Conservative 18 April 2020[32][45]
David Stewart Highlands and Islands 2007 Labour 9 June 2020[32][46]
Angus MacDonald Falkirk East 2011 SNP 11 June 2020[32][47]
Iain Gray East Lothian 1999 Labour 18 June 2020[32][48]
Adam Tomkins Glasgow 2016 Conservative 17 July 2020[32][49]
Gil Paterson Clydebank and Milngavie 1999 SNP 31 July 2020[32][50]
Linda Fabiani East Kilbride 1999 11 August 2020[32][51]
Derek Mackay Renfrewshire North and West 2011 Independent[c] 14 August 2020[32][52]
Roseanna Cunningham Perthshire South and Kinross-shire 1999 SNP 22 August 2020[32][53]
Alex Neil Airdrie and Shotts 1999 23 August 2020[32][54]
Jeane Freeman Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley 2016 24 August 2020[32][55]
Sandra White Glasgow Kelvin 1999 27 August 2020[32][56]
Maureen Watt Aberdeen South and North Kincardine 2006[d] 7 September 2020[32][57]
Peter Chapman North East Scotland 2016 Conservative September 2020[32]
Mike Rumbles 1999 Liberal Democrats September 2020[32]
Ken Macintosh West Scotland 1999 Presiding Officer[e] 22 September 2020[32][58]
Jenny Marra North East Scotland 2011 Labour 28 November 2020[32][59]
Lewis Macdonald 1999 30 November 2020[32][60]
Johann Lamont Glasgow 1999 4 March 2021[32][61]
Alison Harris Central Scotland 2016 Conservative 7 March 2021[62]
Bill Bowman North East Scotland 2016 9 March 2021[63]
Tom Mason 2017 9 March 2021[63]

James Dornan announced in February 2020 his intention to retire at the next Holyrood election,[64] but reversed this decision some months later.[65]

Parties

[edit]
See also: List of political parties in Scotland

The SNP, Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats fielded candidates in all 73 constituencies and all eight of the regional ballots.[66] Five other parties contested both all eight regions and at least one constituency: the Scottish Greens (12 constituencies) the Scottish Libertarian Party (9), the Scottish Family Party (7), UKIP (5) and the Freedom Alliance (4). Four parties – Abolish the Scottish Parliament Party, Alba Party, All for Unity, and Reform UK – stood in all eight electoral regions, but did not contest any constituencies.

Six other parties contested some of the regions and at least one constituency: TUSC (3 regions and 3 constituencies), Restore Scotland (2 regions, 4 constituencies), Scotia Future (2 of each), the Communist Party of Britain (2 regions and 1 constituency), the Reclaim Party (1 of each) and the Vanguard Party (also 1 of each). Five other parties – Independent Green Voice (5 regions), Renew (5), the Social Democratic Party (2), Women's Equality (2) and Animal Welfare (1) – contested some of the regions, but not any constituencies.

The Scottish Socialist Party, which participated in the last election as part of the electoral alliance RISE – Scotland's Left Alliance, opted not to participate in this election, for the first time since its inception.

List of parties contesting all regional ballots

[edit]
Name Ideology Leader(s) 2016 Scottish Parliament election result Seats at dissolution
Votes (%) Seats
Constituency Regional
Scottish National Party Social democracy
Scottish independence 		Nicola Sturgeon
MSP for Glasgow Southside 		46.5 41.7
63 / 129
61 / 129
Scottish Conservatives Conservatism
Unionism 		Douglas Ross
Not an MSP 		22.0 22.9
31 / 129
30 / 129
Scottish Labour Social democracy
Unionism 		Anas Sarwar
MSP for Glasgow region 		22.6 19.1
24 / 129
23 / 129
Scottish Greens Green politics
Scottish independence 		Patrick Harvie (co-leader)
MSP for Glasgow region 		0.6 6.6
6 / 129
5 / 129
Lorna Slater (co-leader)
MSP for Lothian region
Scottish Liberal Democrats Liberalism
Federalism 		Willie Rennie
MSP for North East Fife 		7.8 5.2
5 / 129
5 / 129
Reform UK Scotland Right-wing populism
Euroscepticism 		Michelle Ballantyne
MSP for South Scotland region 		– –
0 / 129
1 / 129
UKIP Scotland Right-wing populism
Anti-devolution 		Donald Mackay[67]
Not an MSP 		– 2.0
0 / 129
0 / 129
Scottish Libertarian Party Libertarianism
Scottish independence 		Tam Laird
Not an MSP 		0.0 0.1
0 / 129
0 / 129
Scottish Family Party Anti-abortion
Social conservatism 		Richard Lucas
Not an MSP 		– – Did not exist
0 / 129
Alba Party Scottish nationalism
Scottish independence 		Alex Salmond
Not an MSP 		– – Did not exist
0 / 129
All for Unity Anti-nationalism
Unionism 		George Galloway
Not an MSP 		– – Did not exist
0 / 129
Abolish the Scottish Parliament Anti-devolution
Unionism 		John Mortimer
Not an MSP 		– – Did not exist
0 / 129

Election system, seats and regions

[edit]
Main article: List of Scottish Parliament constituencies and electoral regions (2011–present)
An Electoral Commission voter guide booklet sent to Scottish households ahead of the election.

The total number of Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) elected to the Parliament is 129.

The Scottish Parliament uses an additional member system (AMS), designed to produce approximate proportional representation for each region. There are 8 regions, each sub-divided into smaller constituencies. There is a total of 73 constituencies. Each constituency elects one MSP by the plurality (first past the post) system of election. Each region elects 7 additional MSPs using an additional member system. A modified D'Hondt method using the constituency results[clarification needed] is used to elect these additional MSPs.[68][69]

The boundaries of the 73 constituencies last changed as of the 2011 Scottish Parliament election, as did the configuration of the electoral regions used to elect "list" members of the Scottish Parliament.[70] These revisions were the outcome of the First Periodical Review of the Scottish Parliament's constituencies and regions conducted by the Boundary Commission for Scotland; the Review was announced on 3 July 2007 and the Commission published its final report on 26 May 2010.

The Scottish Parliament constituencies have not been coterminous with Scottish Westminster constituencies since the 2005 general election, when the 72 former UK Parliament constituencies were replaced with a new set of 59, generally larger, constituencies (see Scottish Parliament (Constituencies) Act 2004). The size difference between Westminster and Holyrood boundaries was due to diverge further upon the implementation of the Sixth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies, which has not been voted upon by Parliament. The 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies for a UK total of 650 MPs commenced in England in 2021 and will complete for the UK by 2023.

Campaign

[edit]

The election campaign started on 25 March 2021.[3] The Scottish Conservatives launched their campaign the same day, with a focus on promoting Scotland's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.[71]

On 26 March 2021, the Alba Party was publicly launched by former First Minister of Scotland and SNP leader, Alex Salmond.[72][73][74][75] The party announced plans to stand list-only candidates. Two sitting SNP MPs later defected to the Alba party.[76] The Action for Independence party, which had intended to pursue a similar list-only strategy, announced they would stand down their candidates in favour of Alba.[77] Sturgeon said she would refuse to have any dealings with Salmond unless he apologises to the women who had accused him of harassment.[78]

BBC Scotland announced that it would broadcast two debates between the main parties' leaders; the first was aired on 30 March 2021 and was moderated by the corporation's Scotland editor Sarah Smith.[79] The debate included key questions from the audience on the COVID-19 recovery, climate change, and a second referendum on Scottish independence. The second BBC debate was held on 4 May 2021 and was moderated by BBC Scotland's political editor Glenn Campbell.[80]

Commercial broadcaster STV held their leaders' debate on 13 April, moderated by their political editor Colin Mackay.[81][82][83] NUS Scotland held a debate on specifically on student issues which was moderated by NUS Scotland president, Matt Crilly on 20 April which featured the three main party leaders.[84]

On 1 April, Planet Radio announced that their Clyde 2 station would be hosting a Leaders Phone-In with the main parties' leaders every Sunday before the election. Douglas Ross was the first to be interviewed on 4 April,[85] with Willie Rennie following on 18 April. Whilst Nicola Sturgeon was set to be interviewed on 11 April, campaigning was delayed following the death of Prince Philip and her phone-in was instead held on 22 April. Patrick Harvie followed on 25 April; and Anas Sarwar had the final phone-in on 2 May.[86]

Following Prince Philip's death on 9 April, the SNP, Conservatives, Labour, Greens and Liberal Democrats said they would suspend election campaigning until further notice.[87][88][89] After discussion between the parties, they agreed to resume campaigning after a special parliamentary session on 12 April to make tributes and to pause activities again on the day of the funeral (17 April).[31][90]

Election debates

[edit]
2021 Scottish Parliament election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)  P  Present[f]    S  Surrogate[g]    NI  Not invited   A  Absent invitee  INV Invited 
SNP Conservatives Labour Greens Lib Dems Audience Ref.
30 March BBC Scotland
Sarah Smith
 P
Sturgeon 		P
Ross 		P
Sarwar 		P
Slater 		P
Rennie 		Virtual [91]
13 April STV Colin Mackay P
Sturgeon 		P
Ross 		P
Sarwar 		P
Harvie 		P
Rennie 		[92]
20 April NUS Scotland Matt Crilly P
Sturgeon 		P
Ross 		P
Sarwar 		S
Greer[h] 		S
Ford[i] 		Virtual [84]
22 April BBC (Question Time Special) Fiona Bruce S
Brown[j] 		P
Ross 		P
Sarwar 		P
Slater 		P
Rennie 		Virtual [93]
27 April Channel 4 News Krishnan Guru-Murthy P
Sturgeon 		P
Ross 		P
Sarwar 		P
Harvie 		P
Rennie 		[94]
4 May BBC Scotland Glenn Campbell P
Sturgeon 		P
Ross 		P
Sarwar 		P
Harvie 		P
Rennie 		[95]

Opinion polling

[edit]
Main article: Opinion polling for the 2021 Scottish Parliament election

Graph of opinion poll results prior to the 2021 Scottish Parliament election. Trendlines are 30-day moving averages.

Key

  SNP – Scottish National Party
  Conservative – Scottish Conservatives
  Labour – Scottish Labour
  Lib Dem – Scottish Liberal Democrats
  Green – Scottish Greens
  UKIP – UK Independence Party
  Reform – Reform UK
  SSP – Scottish Socialist Party
  Alba – Alba Party
  AFU – All for Unity

Target seats

[edit]

Below are listed all the constituencies which required a swing of less than 5% from the 2016 result to change hands. The most marginal opportunity for the Greens was in Glasgow Kelvin, which they needed a 7.1% swing to gain. The Liberal Democrats' best bet was Caithness, Sutherland and Ross, which required a 6.1% swing. The SNP ended up holding both of these constituencies.

SNP targets

[edit]
Rank Constituency Winning party
in 2016 		Swing to
gain % 		SNP's place
in 2016 		Result
1 Dumbarton Labour 0.17 2nd Labour hold
2 Edinburgh Central Conservative 0.90 SNP gain
3 Ayr Conservative 1.00
4 Aberdeenshire West Conservative 1.28 Conservative hold
5 East Lothian Labour 1.45 SNP gain
6 Edinburgh Southern Labour 1.47 Labour hold
7 Dumfriesshire Conservative 1.70 Conservative hold
8 Eastwood Conservative 2.22
9 Galloway and West Dumfries Conservative 2.27
10 Edinburgh Western Liberal Democrats 3.73 Lib Dems hold

Conservative targets

[edit]
Rank Constituency Winning party
in 2016 		Swing to
gain % 		Cons' place
in 2016 		Result
1 Perthshire South and Kinross-shire SNP 1.97 2nd SNP hold
2 Edinburgh Pentlands SNP 3.68
3 Angus North and Mearns SNP 4.21
4 Aberdeen South and North Kincardine SNP 4.26
5 Moray SNP 4.30
6 Edinburgh Southern Labour 4.74 3rd Labour hold
7 Perthshire North SNP 4.90 2nd SNP hold

Labour targets

[edit]
Rank Constituency Winning party
in 2016 		Swing to
gain % 		Labour's place
in 2016 		Result
1 Eastwood Conservative 2.56 3rd Conservative hold
2 Edinburgh Central Conservative 4.19 3rd SNP gain

Results

[edit]
See also: Results of the 2021 Scottish Parliament election
Election result with constituency names labeled

Overall

[edit]
PartyConstituencyRegionalTotal
seats		+/–
Votes%SeatsVotes%Seats
Scottish National Party1,291,20447.70621,094,37440.34264+1
Conservative592,52621.895637,13123.4926310
Labour584,39221.592485,81917.912022–2
Greens34,9901.290220,3248.1288+2
Liberal Democrats187,8166.944137,1515.0604–1
Alba44,9131.6600New
All for Unity23,2990.8600New
Scottish Family Party2,7340.10016,0850.5900New
Independent Green Voice9,7560.3600New
Abolish the Scottish Parliament7,2620.2700New
Freedom Alliance1,1540.0406,2710.2300New
Reform UK5,7930.2100New
Libertarian1,9130.0704,9870.18000
UKIP6990.0303,8980.14000
Animal Welfare2,3920.09000
Women's Equality1,8960.07000
TUSC9590.0401,4040.05000
Restore Scotland1,1920.0401,1490.0400New
Communist Party of Britain1940.0101,1420.04000
Renew4930.0200New
Scotia Future1,0320.0404510.0200New
Social Democratic4050.0100New
Reclaim1140.0001740.0100New
Vanguard670.000920.0000New
Liberal1020.0000New
Independents5,6730.2106,1220.23000
Total2,706,761100.00732,712,783100.00561290
Valid votes2,706,76199.632,712,78399.81
Invalid/blank votes10,0240.375,2820.19
Total votes2,716,785100.002,718,065100.00
Registered voters/turnout4,280,78563.464,280,78563.49
Source: Electoral Management Board for Scotland

Votes summary

[edit]
↓
64 8 31 22 4
SNP Green Conservative Labour LD
Popular Vote (Constituency)
SNP
 
 47.70%
Conservative
 
 21.89%
Labour
 
 21.59%
Liberal Democrats
 
 6.94%
Green
 
 1.29%
Other
 
 0.59%
Popular Vote (Regional)
SNP
 
 40.34%
Conservative
 
 23.49%
Labour
 
 17.91%
Green
 
 8.12%
Liberal Democrats
 
 5.06%
Alba
 
 1.66%
Other
 
 3.42%
Parliament seats
SNP
 
 49.61%
Conservative
 
 24.00%
Labour
 
 17.05%
Green
 
 6.20%
Liberal Democrats
 
 3.10%

Central Scotland

[edit]
2021 Scottish Parliament election: Central Scotland constituencies
Constituency Elected member Result
Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray SNP hold
Coatbridge and Chryston Fulton MacGregor
Cumbernauld and Kilsyth Jamie Hepburn
East Kilbride Collette Stevenson
Falkirk East Michelle Thomson
Falkirk West Michael Matheson
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse Christina McKelvie
Motherwell and Wishaw Clare Adamson
Uddingston and Bellshill Stephanie Callaghan
2021 Scottish Parliament election: Central Scotland regional list
Party Elected candidates Seats +/− Votes % +/−%
SNP 0 Steady 148,399 45.3 Decrease 2.4
Labour Richard Leonard
Monica Lennon
Mark Griffin 		3 Decrease 1 77,623 23.7 Decrease 1.1
Conservative Stephen Kerr
Graham Simpson
Meghan Gallacher 		3 Steady 59,896 18.3 Increase 2.2
Scottish Green Gillian Mackay 1 Increase 1 19,512 6.0 Increase 1.3

Glasgow

[edit]
2021 Scottish Parliament election: Glasgow constituencies
Constituency Elected member Result
Glasgow Anniesland Bill Kidd SNP hold
Glasgow Cathcart James Dornan
Glasgow Kelvin Kaukab Stewart
Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn Bob Doris
Glasgow Pollok Humza Yousaf
Glasgow Provan Ivan McKee
Glasgow Shettleston John Mason
Glasgow Southside Nicola Sturgeon
Rutherglen Clare Haughey
2021 Scottish Parliament election: Glasgow regional list
Party Elected candidates Seats +/− Votes % +/−%
SNP 0 Steady 133,917 43.9 Decrease 0.9
Labour Pauline McNeill
Anas Sarwar
Paul Sweeney
Pam Duncan-Glancy 		4 Steady 74,088 24.3 Increase 0.5
Conservative Annie Wells
Sandesh Gulhane 		2 Steady 37,027 12.1 Increase 0.2
Scottish Green Patrick Harvie 1 Steady 36,114 11.8 Increase 2.4

Highlands and Islands

[edit]
2021 Scottish Parliament election: Highlands and Islands constituencies
Constituency Elected member Result
Argyll and Bute Jenni Minto SNP hold
Caithness, Sutherland and Ross Maree Todd
Inverness and Nairn Fergus Ewing
Moray Richard Lochhead
Na h-Eileanan an Iar Alasdair Allan
Orkney Liam McArthur Liberal Democrat hold
Shetland Beatrice Wishart
Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch Kate Forbes SNP hold
2021 Scottish Parliament election: Highlands and Islands regional list
Party Elected candidates Seats +/− Votes % +/−%
SNP Emma Roddick 1 Steady 96,433 40.4 Increase 0.7
Conservative Douglas Ross
Donald Cameron
Edward Mountain
Jamie Halcro Johnston 		4 Increase 1 60,779 25.4 Increase 3.6
Liberal Democrats 0 Steady 26,771 11.2 Increase 2.1
Labour Rhoda Grant 1 Decrease 1 22,713 9.5 Decrease 1.7
Scottish Green Ariane Burgess 1 Steady 17,729 7.4 Increase 0.2

Lothian

[edit]
2021 Scottish Parliament election: Lothian constituencies
Constituency Elected member Result
Almond Valley Angela Constance SNP hold
Edinburgh Central Angus Robertson SNP gain from Conservative
Edinburgh Eastern Ash Denham SNP hold
Edinburgh Northern and Leith Ben Macpherson
Edinburgh Pentlands Gordon MacDonald
Edinburgh Southern Daniel Johnson Labour hold
Edinburgh Western Alex Cole-Hamilton Liberal Democrat hold
Linlithgow Fiona Hyslop SNP hold
Midlothian North and Musselburgh Colin Beattie
2021 Scottish Parliament election: Lothian regional list
Party Elected candidates Seats +/− Votes % +/−%
SNP 0 Steady 141,478 35.9 Decrease 0.3
Conservative Miles Briggs
Sue Webber
Jeremy Balfour 		3 Steady 78,595 19.9 Decrease 3.0
Labour Sarah Boyack
Foysol Choudhury 		2 Steady 76,689 19.4 Decrease 1.4
Scottish Green Alison Johnstone
Lorna Slater 		2 Steady 49,984 12.7 Increase 2.1
Liberal Democrats 0 Steady 28,433 7.2 Increase 1.6

Mid Scotland and Fife

[edit]
2021 Scottish Parliament election: Mid Scotland and Fife constituencies
Constituency Elected member Result
Clackmannanshire and Dunblane Keith Brown SNP hold
Cowdenbeath Annabelle Ewing
Dunfermline Shirley-Anne Somerville
Kirkcaldy David Torrance
Mid Fife and Glenrothes Jenny Gilruth
North East Fife Willie Rennie Liberal Democrat hold
Perthshire North John Swinney SNP hold
Perthshire South and Kinross-shire Jim Fairlie
Stirling Evelyn Tweed
2021 Scottish Parliament election: Mid Scotland and Fife regional list
Party Elected candidates Seats +/− Votes % +/−%
SNP 0 Steady 136,825 39.8 Decrease 1.5
Conservative Murdo Fraser
Liz Smith
Dean Lockhart
Alexander Stewart 		4 Steady 85,909 25.0 Decrease 0.2
Labour Claire Baker
Alex Rowley 		2 Steady 52,626 15.3 Decrease 2.3
Scottish Green Mark Ruskell 1 Steady 28,654 8.3 Increase 2.2
Liberal Democrats 0 Steady 25,489 7.4 Increase 0.4

North East Scotland

[edit]
2021 Scottish Parliament election: North East Scotland constituencies
Constituency Elected member Result
Aberdeen Central Kevin Stewart SNP hold
Aberdeen Donside Jackie Dunbar
Aberdeen South and North Kincardine Audrey Nicoll
Aberdeenshire East Gillian Martin
Aberdeenshire West Alexander Burnett Conservative hold
Angus North & Mearns Mairi Gougeon SNP hold
Angus South Graeme Dey
Banffshire & Buchan Coast Karen Adam
Dundee City East Shona Robison
Dundee City West Joe FitzPatrick
2021 Scottish Parliament election: North East Scotland regional list
Party Elected candidates Seats +/− Votes % +/−%
SNP 0 Steady 147,910 40.9 Decrease 3.8
Conservative Liam Kerr
Douglas Lumsden
Maurice Golden
Tess White 		4 Steady 110,555 30.6 Increase 2.6
Labour Michael Marra
Mercedes Villalba 		2 Steady 41,062 11.4 Decrease 1.2
Scottish Green Maggie Chapman 1 Increase 1 22,735 6.3 Increase 1.4
Liberal Democrats 0 Decrease 1 18,051 5.0 Decrease 1.0

South Scotland

[edit]
2021 Scottish Parliament election: South Scotland constituencies
Constituency Elected member Result
Ayr Siobhian Brown SNP gain from Conservative
Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley Elena Whitham SNP hold
Clydesdale Màiri McAllan
Dumfriesshire Oliver Mundell Conservative hold
East Lothian Paul McLennan SNP gain from Labour
Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire Rachael Hamilton Conservative hold
Galloway and West Dumfries Finlay Carson
Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley Willie Coffey SNP hold
Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale Christine Grahame
2021 Scottish Parliament election: South Scotland regional list
Party Elected candidates Seats +/− Votes % +/−%
SNP Emma Harper 1 Decrease 2 136,741 37.6 Decrease 0.7
Conservative Craig Hoy
Brian Whittle
Sharon Dowey 		3 Increase 1 121,730 33.5 Increase 1.4
Labour Colin Smyth
Carol Mochan
Martin Whitfield 		3 Increase 1 57,236 15.7 Decrease 2.1

West Scotland

[edit]
2021 Scottish Parliament election: West Scotland constituencies
Constituency Elected member Result
Clydebank and Milngavie Marie McNair SNP hold
Cunninghame North Kenneth Gibson
Cunninghame South Ruth Maguire
Dumbarton Jackie Baillie Labour hold
Eastwood Jackson Carlaw Conservative hold
Greenock and Inverclyde Stuart McMillan SNP hold
Paisley George Adam
Renfrewshire North and West Natalie Don
Renfrewshire South Tom Arthur
Strathkelvin and Bearsden Rona Mackay
2021 Scottish Parliament election: West Scotland regional list
Party Elected candidates Seats +/− Votes % +/−%
SNP 0 Steady 152,671 40.4 Decrease 1.8
Labour Neil Bibby
Katy Clark
Paul O'Kane 		3 Steady 83,782 22.2 Decrease 0.3
Conservative Russell Findlay
Jamie Greene
Pam Gosal 		3 Steady 82,640 21.9 Decrease 0.3
Scottish Green Ross Greer 1 Steady 26,632 7.1 Increase 1.8

Constituency seat changes compared to 2016

[edit]
Constituency Gain Loss
Ayr SNP Conservative
East Lothian Labour
Edinburgh Central Conservative

MSPs who lost their seats

[edit]
MSP Constituency/Region Party
Michelle Ballantyne[96] South Scotland Reform
Claudia Beamish[97] South Scotland Labour
Maurice Corry West Scotland Conservative
James Kelly[98] Glasgow Labour
Gordon Lindhurst Lothian Conservative
Joan McAlpine[99] South Scotland SNP
John Scott[100] Ayr Conservative
Paul Wheelhouse[99] South Scotland SNP
Andy Wightman[101] Lothian (contested Highlands and Islands) Scottish Greens (contested as independent)

Analysis

[edit]

The SNP won 64 seats, falling one seat short of an overall majority.[102] Some commentators put this down to unionists voting tactically for Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem candidates.[103][104] According to psephologist John Curtice, "Denying the SNP an overall majority was, indeed, a collective effort – at least on the part of Unionist voters, who on the constituency ballot demonstrated a remarkable willingness to back whichever pro-Union party appeared to be best placed locally to defeat the SNP. [...] These patterns had a decisive impact on the outcome."[105] This was apparent in seats like Dumbarton, where incumbent Labour MSP Jackie Baillie saw her 0.3% majority increased to 3.9%, whilst both the Conservative and Lib Dem vote share decreased.[106]

In The National, Emer O'Toole questioned whether social media adverts with "a lack of transparency over funding" may have cost the SNP key seats as well.[107] The day before the election, The Guardian reported that anti-independence groups and campaigners had "spent tens of thousands of pounds in the past week", including on Facebook adverts, calling for tactical voting to prevent the SNP getting a majority.[108] One of these groups was Scotland Matters, whose founder, Professor Hugh Pennington said, "Across the country as a whole, tactical voting is obviously one of the ways forward to basically harm the SNP, not to put too fine a point on it."[108]

Additionally, the Greens claimed that they may have been deprived of two seats because of Independent Green Voice (IGV), a far-right party which has nothing to do with the Scottish Greens (who support Scottish independence). IGV received nearly 10,000 votes, including 2,210 in Glasgow (where the Greens were 1,000 short of gaining a seat) and 1,690 in South Scotland (where the Greens fell 100 short). This potentially prevented pro-independence parties from having a 19-seat majority instead of 15 seats.[109]

The Scottish and Welsh Election Studies 2021, revealed on 13 June, found that around a third of Scottish voters who decided to vote differently in the run-up to the election did so to stop another party, and that 90% of those who did this did so in a bid to prevent the SNP winning the seat. Rob Johns, Professor in Politics at the University of Essex, said: "[W]e found a lot more switching than we had expected. The polls had suggested that not much was changing and obviously the overall election result was almost eerily similar to 2016. That can mean that nobody has changed their mind or it can mean lots of people have changed their mind – but these have cancelled out as people have moved in opposing directions. We found there was quite a lot more of that than we had expected."[110]

Voter demographics

[edit]

Data from Savanta ComRes:[111]

The 2021 Scottish Parliament constituency vote
Social group SNP Con Lab Lib Dem Others
Total vote 48 22 18 5 7
Gender
Male 43 26 24 7 0
Female 52 16 24 5 3
Age
16–34 58 10 24 3 5
35–54 51 16 25 5 3
55+ 38 31 22 9 0

Campaign spending

[edit]
Party Expenses[112][113]
SNP £1,468,343
Conservative £1,359,435
Labour £1,176,410
Liberal Democrats £434,354
Scottish Green £231,902
Alba £214,371
Reform UK £54,504
Scottish Family £32,908
All for Unity £29,620
TUSC £13,753
Reclaim £10,199
UKIP £8,230
Freedom Alliance £7,387
Communist £6,420

Aftermath

[edit]
Further information: Third Sturgeon government and Scottish National Party–Scottish Greens agreement
Election of the First Minister
Ballot → 18 May 2021
Required majority → 50 out of 99 valid votes
64 / 129
 checkY
31 / 129
 ☒N
4 / 129
 ☒N
Abstentions
28 / 129
Not voting
2 / 129
Sources[114]

Nicola Sturgeon was nominated as First Minister by a vote of the parliament on 18 May 2021.[115] Her cabinet was approved by the parliament two days later and thus the Third Sturgeon government, a minority government, was formed.[116]

On 3 August 2021, it was reported that a co-operation agreement between the SNP and the Greens was "on the brink of being finalised" and could see Green MSPs take ministerial positions in government.[117] On 19 August, the power-sharing agreement between the two parties was announced.[7] Under the terms of the agreement, the Greens have two MSPs appointed as junior ministers in the government who are invited to attend cabinet meetings when their portfolios are being discussed. The Greens signed up to the bulk of the SNP's policies, but in areas of disagreement such as international relations and fee-paying schools the two parties are free to publicly disagree.[7] The agreement states that the Greens support the government on votes of confidence and supply.[118]

A deal that would see Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater made ministers was revealed on 26 August, subject to being voted upon by Green Party members.[119][120] Two days later, members of both parties overwhelmingly voted in favour of the deal.[121]

See also

[edit]

Other elections in the UK which were held on the same day:

Footnotes

[edit]
  1. ^ Elected on the Highlands and Islands regional list while concurrently sitting as a Westminster MP for Moray.[1] Ruth Davidson, the Conservative leader at Holyrood before the leader, stood down at the election to take a seat in the House of Lords.[2]
  2. ^ Originally elected as SNP
  3. ^ Originally elected as SNP
  4. ^ Co-opted to replace Richard Lochhead, who became a constituency MSP in the 2006 Moray by-election
  5. ^ Originally elected as Labour
  6. ^ Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
  7. ^ Denotes a main invitee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
  8. ^ Ross Greer, Scottish Green spokesperson on International Development and External Affairs, Education and Skills, and Culture and Media.
  9. ^ Carole Ford, Liberal Democrat spokesperson on Children and Young People.
  10. ^ Keith Brown, SNP Depute Leader.

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