Draft:Demographic Decline in China

Introduction

China’s population, once growing rapidly, peaked at 1.4 billion in 2017[1] and is now entering a period of significant demographic decline that would eventually carry Chinese’s population below the symbolic 1 billion in 2070. [2] Since the beginning of this contraction process, a pivotal demographic shift has already occurred when India overtook China in terms of population early this year. [3] Whereas India ranks at the top in the World’s largest nations, China, previously considered a fast-growing demographic, is about to shrink following the Western pattern. For a country that based its strength on its overwhelming labour force, this change represents a considerable challenge on which economic stability, labour force sustainability, and the integrity of social systems may depend. A worth-mentioning aspect of China’s demographic decline is its low total fertility rate (TFR), an average indicator of how many children a woman has in her lifetime. For 2024, China’s TFR was estimated at 1.55, according to the CIA. [4] Other data-banks, however, provide a less catastrophic forecast, placing China’s TFR at 1.71. [5] In both cases, China demonstrated its weakness as its position dropped below the replacement fertility level of 2.1 children per woman. [6] This level is considered necessary for a population to replace itself completely and, therefore, keep a stable trend. What made China such a huge nation was its high fertility rate in the post-war, which used to rank above 6.3 in 1968. [5] Due to the enforcement of birth control policies, China has drastically reduced the index and now suffers from demographic stagnation.

In parallel with fertility, the ageing population is another major issue related to the population decline as it raises social concerns on whether a shrinking working class could support a growing number of retirees and all the social services and healthcare assistance it demands. The ageing population is a growing phenomenon that is rooted in the better life conditions developed countries enjoy. Since China became one of the wealthiest nations in the World, life expectancy has increased accordingly. In 2020, the over 60 Chinese population reached 18% of the whole, in a vertiginously growing curve that will eventually bring the percentage to 40% in 2050. [7] Although it is unrealistic that China will lose its huge human capital overnight, we are expected to witness one of history's fastest population declines, whose causes are detected in people’s ageing and fewer birth contributions. China anticipates a forthcoming Worldwide trend; while the global population is still on the rise, the growth rate is slowing down, with the global TFR more than halved in the past half century (from over 5 children per woman to 2.3). [8] However, the Chinese government is responsible for this shift, as it adopted very specific nativity policies to tackle the out-of-control demographic boom, and now has to step back.

One Child Policy

One of the primary causes of China’s demographic change is the One Child Policy. The policy was introduced in 1979 under the leadership of Deng Xiaoping in response to fears that China would face difficulties in supporting its rapidly growing population. Non-compliance generally resulted in fines and economic sanctions and in some cases women were pressured into undergoing forced abortions and sterilisations. [9] This sparked global criticisms from a number of foreign governments and NGOs. [10]

The Chinese government claims that the policy prevented approximately 400 million births, however this figure is disputed with some scholars claiming that it does not consider other important factors that influence a decline in the fertility rate. [11] This restriction on the number of births has resulted in fewer young people in each subsequent generation and has made for a significant imbalance in the ratio of older people to younger people in China.

As a result of various cultural, social and economic factors there is a strong historical preference for boys in China. During the one child policy this led to an imbalanced sex ratio, with some families abandoning baby girls, carrying out sex-selective abortions or even female infanticide. [12] As a result China’s population consists of nearly 35 million more men than women and has made for fewer women of childbearing age in China. [13]

Increase in Life Expectancy

Improved public health and rising living standards have meant that life expectancy in China has increased from 40 to 78 years between 1961 and 2021. Over this period China’s health funding saw a significant increase and disease prevention and healthy lifestyle were promoted. [14] This coupled with the one child policy has furthered the ageing of the Chinese population.

Urbanisation

Researchers have argued that economic development and urbanisation have also contributed to China’s fertility decline. In 2023 it was estimated that 65% of the Chinese population lived in urban areas. This is a significant increase from 36% in 2000. [15]

The cost of urban housing and education as well as more limited space have been cited by researchers as impacting fertility rates in cities. Additionally, doctors have pointed towards biological factors such as the high stress of urban jobs and industrial pollution. A 2012 study found that urbanisation was responsible for about 22% of the decrease in China’s total fertility rate (TFR) between 1982 and 2008. [16]

Cultural shifts have also impacted the Chinese birth rate. Some women, particularly those in urban areas, now feel that having children will get in the way of their career development. In 2022 an online survey of 20,000 people, primarily women between the ages of 18 and 25 found that two thirds have a low desire to have children. [17]

On the Chinese social media site Weibo, the hashtag “why this generation of young people are unwilling to have babies” has been viewed more than 440 million times. [18]  

Effects

Areas of change

Demographic decline has only begun to be seen in the past two years but analysts are already beginning to discuss the effects the downward trend could have. This dramatic shift in population will “force Beijing to make some structural changes” in key areas such as economy, healthcare and housing. [19]

Transitioning economy

China’s transition over the last four decades from an agrarian economy to an industrial model will result in a “talent demand gap of nearly 30 million workers” [20] impacted by rural-urban inequalities in access to education and career opportunities. With an ageing population also comes the risk of a shrinking goods and services market. [20]

Urban-Rural divide

Statistics provided by the National Bureau of Statistics of China [21] shows a spike in divide between urban-rural disposable income levels in China since the start of the millennium. If China fails to address and make amends to this increasing divide, they could face major issues around unemployment for rural workers.

One solution looks at the potential of the technology market, with China at the forefront of its production force. Technology could compensate for the predicted decline in workers over the coming years, and help with societal issues of pensions and elderly care by extending active working years. [22]

Raising children to provide for old age (养儿防老)

The burden will fall on the working population to manage the care of their elders while maintaining full-time jobs [23]. Increasingly, the more affluent may turn to long-term elderly care facilities due to “limitations in the public healthcare system” [23]. As such, China will need to look at investing more in its public healthcare sector to provide for the increasing demand.

“Lonely” China

A delay in marriage, or the increasingly popular choice not to have a family altogether has been studied with a strong correlation found between marriage and childbirth, with results finding fewer babies. [24]

In order for a population to maintain its average, fertility rates are recommended at around 2.1 children per woman. The figures in China fall well below this as a result of decades of population control. Figures are now estimated at 1.3 births per woman. [25]

Gender inequality in the workplace has deterred women considering having children due to a lack of national law on paternity leave. Women put their careers on hold, facing workplace discrimination upon return, or the loss of a job altogether [26]. Chinese policymakers will have to work harder to bridge this gap if they wish to encourage more women to start families.

The appeal of immigrants

China continues to experience negative net migration numbers with almost no immigrants employed in the labour-intensive sectors. Since China introduced its “green-card” in the early 2000s, only 11,000 ten-year residence permits have been issued from 2004-2016. [27]

While there is very little policy debate about moving in a direction towards expanding out to immigrants, it would allow for opportunities in expanding the labour sector, relieving the burden on struggling communities.

Government Policies

Number of Children

Starting on January 1st, 2016, the Chinese Communist Party announced that it would increase the allowable number of children from one child per family to two. [28]

In 2021, the Communist Party announced that the two-child cap would be increase to three, the party stated that this would be ‘conducive to improving our country’s population structure’. [29]

Population Development Strategy

Xi Jinping stated in 2020, that China faces ‘challenges brought about by the transformation of the population structure’. [30] Similarly the 14th Five Year plan, brought forward by the CCP in 2021, following the census in 2020, established the need for a ‘long term population development strategy’, and called for greater measures to be implemented to encourage families to have more children. [31]

In 2024, Li Qiang, China’s Prime minister, announced measures related to the ageing population which included policies on insurance and pensions. [32]

Provincial and local governments have also introduced subsidies to incentivise an increase in birth rates such as in Jinan, Shandong Province, which implemented a policy of providing 600 RMB per month over a period of three years for a second or third child. [33] Similarly, in Hangzhou, measures have been introduced offering a reimbursement for IVF treatments of 3,000 yuan. Data from the National health and Medical commission has shown that from 2016 to 2021, the number of medical institutions approved greater assistance for the use of reproductive technology, this figure increased from 451 to 539. [34]

Social policies

The leadership announced in 2021, a ban on ‘effeminate men’. This was seen to be related to China’s desire to cultivate masculine role models, which would emphasise the traditional roles for men which is seen as a means to bring about an increase in birth rates. By returning to more traditional roles for men, political advisors have argued this would reverse the threat posed to China’s demographic survival caused by a lack of clear gender roles. [35]

The cost of higher education is also seen as one of the factors that has led to couple’s feeling discouraged from having children, to ease this the CCP banned the use of for-profit private tutoring organisations, which was seen as one of the main reasons why educational costs caused so much anxiety for would be parents. [36]

Maternity leave is also seen as one of the ways to mitigate population decline, in many regions across China maternity leave has been extended. Furthermore, in many locations paternity leave has been introduced as well as extended. [37] Marriage leave entitlement, for newlywed couples has been introduced and extended in some regions like Shanghai, which has increased the leave from three to five days. [38]

Effects of Policies

The effects of lifting the two child policies has led to a short-term increase in birth rates. [39] However the overall birth rate continues to decline in China and is currently at 6.39 births per 1,000 people, as of 2024, which has declined from 6.77 births in 2022. [40]

References

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