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Assessment on COVID-19 Origins

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Assessment on COVID-19 Origins
Location United States
TypeAssessment with declassified summary

Assessment on COVID-19 Origins[1] is a 2021 United States intelligence report, which was commissioned on May 26, 2021 by President Joe Biden and declassified in August of the same year. Biden initially ordered his intelligence services to "redouble efforts" concerning the origins of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.[2] The report was submitted to Biden on August 24, with an unclassified summary being made public three days later.[3]

Background

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President Joe Biden ordered the initial investigation

Since the initial outbreak of the COVID-19 disease in early 2020, the US federal government under the Trump administration had been pushing for an investigation into a possible artificial origin of the disease.[4] President Donald Trump and his Secretary of State Mike Pompeo claimed that there was "enormous evidence" regarding a lab leak from the Wuhan institute, even as these claims were contradicted by US intelligence officials.[5][6]

In February 2021, following a mission to Wuhan conducted by the World Health Organization (WHO), President Joe Biden's National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, publicly demanded transparency from Chinese authorities and the WHO in their investigation process, saying:

"We have deep concerns about the way in which the early findings of the COVID-19 investigation were communicated and questions about the process used to reach them. It is imperative that this report be independent, with expert findings free from intervention or alteration by the Chinese government. To better understand this pandemic and prepare for the next one, China must make available its data from the earliest days of the outbreak."[7]

On May 26, Biden ordered the United States Intelligence Community to conduct an assessment within ninety days. In a statement, he said Sullivan had been directed to conduct a review on whether SARS-CoV-2 had come from natural exposure to an infected animal or a laboratory incident. He added the intelligence community had "coalesced around two likely scenarios" but was unable to reach a consensus.[8][9]

Summary

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The Office of the Director of National Intelligence was in charge of declassifying the contents of the report.

A declassified summary of the report was published on the official website of the office of the Director of National Intelligence on August 27, 2021.[1] It states that SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19, "probably emerged and infected humans through an initial small-scale exposure that occurred no later than November 2019 with the first known cluster of COVID-19 cases arising in Wuhan, China in December".

  • Four intelligence agencies, as well as the National Intelligence Council, assessed "with low confidence" that the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection was most likely caused by natural exposure to an infected animal or a "close progenitor virus" (a virus which would likely be over 99% similar to SARS-CoV-2).
  • Another agency assessed "with moderate confidence" that the first human infection was most likely the result of a laboratory incident, likely involving experimentation, animal handling or sampling in the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
  • Three other agencies remained unable to agree on either hypothesis without additional evidence, with some "favoring natural origin, others a laboratory origin, and some seeing the hypotheses as equally likely."
  • Variations in analytical views were largely a result of differences in the way agencies have studied intelligence reports and scientific publications, as well as intelligence and scientific gaps.

The report said that cooperation with China "most likely would be needed to reach a conclusive assessment" on the origins of the disease, and additionally criticized governmental authorities for continuing to "hinder the global investigation" and refusing to share information. It also stated that the Chinese government's actions reflected its own uncertainty about where an investigation could lead, as well as its frustrations that the international community was "using the issue to exert political pressure on China".[1]

Reactions

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Analysts considered that the investigation proved incapable of reaching a definitive conclusion on the origins of COVID-19.[10]

On August 27, Biden released a statement praising "the thorough, careful, and objective work" of US intelligence officials, while also accusing the government of China of blocking access to international experts, and continuing "to reject calls for transparency and withhold information".[11][12]

Chinese officials and state media criticized the report, claiming that China was made a "scapegoat" in the investigation.[13] Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu said that "without providing any evidence", the United States planned to spread a "political virus" by criticizing Chinese authorities in origins research, and added that "over 25 million Chinese netizens have signed an open letter asking for an inquiry into the Fort Detrick base".[14] Fu Cong, a director-general at the Chinese Foreign Ministry, warned that "if they [the United States] baselessly accuse China, they better be prepared to accept the counterattack from China."[15]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ a b c "Unclassified Summary of Assessment on COVID-19 Origins" (PDF). Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Retrieved October 12, 2021.
  2. ^ "COVID-19's origins still uncertain, U.S. intelligence agencies conclude". www.science.org. Retrieved October 12, 2021.
  3. ^ Marquardt, Alex; Herb, Jeremy (August 27, 2021). "US intelligence community review does not determine origin of Covid-19". CNN. Retrieved October 12, 2021.
  4. ^ Mazzetti, Mark; Barnes, Julian E.; Wong, Edward; Goldman, Adam (April 30, 2020). "Trump Officials Are Said to Press Spies to Link Virus and Wuhan Labs". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved October 16, 2021.
  5. ^ "Trump claims to have evidence coronavirus started in Chinese lab but offers no details". the Guardian. May 1, 2020. Retrieved October 16, 2021.
  6. ^ "Mike Pompeo: 'enormous evidence' coronavirus came from Chinese lab". the Guardian. May 3, 2020. Retrieved October 12, 2021.
  7. ^ "Statement by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan". The White House. February 13, 2021. Retrieved October 12, 2021.
  8. ^ Shear, Michael D.; Barnes, Julian E.; Zimmer, Carl; Mueller, Benjamin (May 27, 2021). "Biden Orders Intelligence Inquiry Into Origins of Virus". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved August 7, 2024.
  9. ^ Sullivan, Kate; Judd, Donald; Mattingly, Phil (May 26, 2021). "Biden tasks intelligence community to report on Covid origins in 90 days". CNN. Retrieved August 7, 2024.
  10. ^ "Biden accuse la Chine de cacher des "informations cruciales" sur l'origine du Covid-19". France 24 (in French). August 28, 2021. Retrieved October 16, 2021.
  11. ^ "Statement by President Joe Biden on the Investigation into the Origins of COVID-⁠19". The White House. August 27, 2021. Retrieved October 16, 2021.
  12. ^ "Covid-19 : Joe Biden accuse la Chine de dissimuler des "informations cruciales sur les origines de la pandémie"". Franceinfo (in French). August 27, 2021. Retrieved October 16, 2021.
  13. ^ "Xinhua Commentary: U.S. attempt to pressure China by politicizing COVID-19 origins-tracing doomed to fail". Xinhua News Agency. August 28, 2021. Retrieved October 12, 2021.
  14. ^ "China firmly opposes U.S. intelligence community's COVID-19 origins tracing report". Xinhua News Agency. Retrieved October 12, 2021.
  15. ^ "China accuses US of politicizing COVID-19 origins research". Associated Press. August 25, 2021. Retrieved October 12, 2021.
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