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2024 Northern Territory general election

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2024 Northern Territory general election
← 2020 24 August 2024 2028 →
All 25 seats in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly
13 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout68.5% (Decrease 6.5 pp)
  First party Second party Third party
 
Lia Finocchiaro (cropped).jpg
EvaLawler2023cropped.jpg
Greens_placeholder-01.png
Leader Lia Finocchiaro Eva Lawler No leader
Party Country Liberal Labor Greens
Leader since 1 February 2020 21 December 2023 N/A
Leader's seat Spillett Drysdale
(lost seat) 		N/A
Last election 8 seats, 31.34% 14 seats, 39.43% 0 seats, 4.46%
Seats before 7[a] 14[b] 0
Seats won 17 4 1
Seat change Increase 9 Decrease 10 Increase 1
Popular vote 49,738 29,292 8,272
Percentage 48.9% 28.8% 8.13%
Swing Increase 17.6 Decrease 10.6 Increase 3.67
TPP 57.4% 42.6%
TPP swing Increase 10.4 Decrease 10.4
Chief Minister before election

Eva Lawler
Labor

Elected Chief Minister

Lia Finocchiaro
Country Liberal

The 2024 Northern Territory general election was held on 24 August 2024 to elect all 25 members of the Legislative Assembly in the unicameral Northern Territory Parliament. Members were elected through full preferential instant-runoff voting in single-member electorates. The election was conducted by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission (NTEC).

The incumbent centre-left Labor majority government, led by Chief Minister Eva Lawler since December 2023, sought to win a third consecutive four-year term of government. They were defeated by the centre-right Country Liberal Party (CLP) opposition, led by Opposition Leader Lia Finocchiaro, in a landslide.[2][3]

The election saw the second-worst defeat of a sitting government in the Territory's history. From 14 seats at dissolution, Labor fell to four seats, its smallest presence in the Legislative Assembly since it entered the chamber in 1977; it won no seats at the first ever Northern Territory election in 1974. Labor also tallied its lowest primary vote in the Territory and suffered a complete wipeout in the urban areas of Darwin and Palmerston. The CLP swelled to 17 seats, up from seven at dissolution, giving the party a four-seat majority. There was a large swing to the CLP across Darwin, Palmerston and Alice Springs, as well as in the surrounding rural areas and in Katherine. The CLP swept the city of Palmerston and won all but two seats in Darwin and all but one seat in Alice Springs. The swing led to Eva Lawler losing her seat of Drysdale to CLP candidate Clinton Howe. She became the third Chief Minister and the first Labor Chief Minister lose her seat at an election.[4]

Of the four remaining seats, three were won by independents and one by left-wing minor party the Greens, whose candidate Kat McNamara defeated former Chief Minister Natasha Fyles in the seat of Nightcliff. This marked the first time the Greens entered the Legislative Assembly in the history of the Northern Territory.[5]

For the first time in Northern Territory history, both major parties at the election were led by female leaders. Additionally, both leaders were from the city of Palmerston; indeed, before her move to the then-new seat of Spillett in 2016, Finocchiaro was the member for Drysdale (the seat Lawler won in 2016 after Finocchiaro transferred to Spillett). Voter turnout dropped in remote Aboriginal communities, which the NTEC attributed to voter fatigue and apathy; others suggested the rejection of the Indigenous Voice to Parliament at the 2023 referendum contributed to low turnout among Indigenous voters.[6]

With the Northern Territory election results, Labor lost its first mainland state or territory since the 2018 South Australian election.

Background

[edit]

This was the first election for the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly where both major political parties were led by women, and the third in any Australian state or territory, after the 1995 ACT election and 2020 Queensland election.

Additionally, both leaders were from the city of Palmerston. Before her move to the then-new seat of Spillett in 2016, Finocchiaro was the member for Drysdale, the seat Lawler won in that election.

Previous election

[edit]

At the 2020 election, the Labor government led by Chief Minister Michael Gunner was re-elected with a reduced majority, winning 14 of the 25 seats in the parliament. The Country Liberals (CLP) won 8 seats, whilst the Territory Alliance party won 1 seat and a further 2 seats were won by independents.

Parliamentary composition

[edit]

Robyn Lambley, the Territory Alliance's sole representative in the parliament, left the party in October 2020 to sit as an independent.[7] Labor MLA Mark Turner was expelled from the party-room caucus in February 2021 due to what he acknowledged as an "inappropriate relationship" with a Labor Party staffer, though he remained a Labor-designated member in the assembly.[8]

A by-election was held for the seat of Daly on 11 September 2021, caused by the resignation of CLP member Ian Sloan due to health and personal issues. Labor candidate Dheran Young won the seat, the first time that an incumbent government has won a seat from the opposition in the history of the Legislative Assembly.[9]

On 10 May 2022, Chief Minister and Labor leader Michael Gunner announced his immediate resignation from both positions, citing his desire to spend more time with his family following the birth of his and his wife's second son on 29 April.[10] Following a party-room meeting on 13 May, Labor minister Natasha Fyles was elected unopposed to the leadership, and was sworn in as the new Chief Minister later that day.[11] Gunner resigned from the seat of Fannie Bay on 27 July and a by-election was held on 20 August 2022. Labor retained the seat at the by-election, with Labor candidate Brent Potter retaining the seat despite a 7 per cent swing against the party.[12]

On 17 December 2022, Labor MP for Arafura Lawrence Costa died. This triggered a by-election which was held on 18 March 2023. Manuel Brown retained the seat for Labor with a 15.6% swing towards the party on the two-party-preferred result.

In December 2023, it was revealed that Fyles holds 754 undeclared shares in South32, a company that owns a manganese mine on Groote Eylandt. Fyles faced further conflict of interest allegations and calls to resign, due to her decision earlier in 2023 to not investigate health impacts from the Groote Eylandt mine, with Leader of the Opposition Lia Finocchiaro calling her actions a 'profound betrayal of public trust'.[13][14] Due to the controversy, Fyles resigned on 19 December 2023.[14]

Three independents were elected at the 2020 election, the crossbench then increased to 4 when Mark Turner was expelled from the Labor Party.

Redistribution

[edit]
A map showing the first proposal of redistribution.

A redistribution took place in preparation for the 2024 election, largely due to the rapid population growth of Palmerston, but minor changes were also made to electorates outside the town.

The first redistribution proposal was published on 23 May 2023.[15]

Election date

[edit]

The parliament has fixed four-year terms, with elections to be held on the fourth Saturday of August every four years.[16]

Pendulum

[edit]

Pre-election pendulum

[edit]
Government seats (14)
Marginal
Port Darwin Paul Kirby ALP 1.9
Fong Lim Mark Monaghan ALP 2.2
Arafura Manuel Brown[c] ALP 3.6[d]
Drysdale Eva Lawler ALP 5.4
Fairly safe
Daly Dheran Young[e] ALP 6.1 [f]
Karama Ngaree Ah Kit ALP 8.3
Safe
Fannie Bay Brent Potter[g] ALP 10.9[h]
Arnhem Selena Uibo ALP 15.9[i]
Casuarina Lauren Moss ALP 16.0
Gwoja Chansey Paech ALP 16.2
Johnston Joel Bowden ALP 16.0
Wanguri Nicole Manison ALP 17.3
Sanderson Kate Worden ALP 18.8
Nightcliff Natasha Fyles ALP 24.1
Opposition seats (7)
Marginal
Barkly Steve Edgington CLP 0.1
Namatjira Bill Yan CLP 0.3
Braitling Joshua Burgoyne CLP 1.3
Katherine Jo Hersey CLP 2.5
Brennan Marie-Clare Boothby CLP 3.0
Fairly safe
Nelson Gerard Maley CLP 9.2 v IND
Safe
Spillett Lia Finocchiaro CLP 13.5
Crossbench seats (4)
Araluen Robyn Lambley IND 0.5 v CLP
Blain Mark Turner IND[j] 1.3 (ALP v CLP)
Mulka Yingiya Mark Guyula IND 5.1 v ALP
Goyder Kezia Purick IND 6.8 v CLP

Notes

[edit]
  • This pre-election pendulum is based on post-redistribution estimates of margins calculated by ABC election analyst Antony Green.[17]
  • Members listed in italics are retiring at the 2024 election.

Post-election pendulum

[edit]
Government seats (17)
Marginal
Fannie Bay Laurie Zio CLP 0.39 v GRN
Casuarina Khoda Patel CLP 0.70
Blain Matthew Kerle CLP 1.92 v IND
Barkly Steve Edgington CLP 1.93
Sanderson Jinson Charls CLP 2.20
Braitling Joshua Burgoyne CLP 3.85 v GRN
Fairly safe
Fong Lim Tanzil Rahman CLP 7.46
Wanguri Oly Carlson CLP 8.99
Safe
Karama Brian O'Gallagher CLP 11.33
Namatjira Bill Yan CLP 11.46
Port Darwin Robyn Cahill CLP 11.73
Katherine Jo Hersey CLP 12.16 v IND
Goyder Andrew Mackay CLP 12.66 v IND
Drysdale Clinton Howe CLP 14.96
Brennan Marie-Clare Boothby CLP 23.90
Nelson Gerard Maley CLP 25.0 v IND[k]
Spillett Lia Finocchiaro CLP 29.58
Opposition seats (4)
Marginal
Daly Dheran Young ALP 2.29
Safe
Arnhem Selena Uibo ALP 14.26
Gwoja Chansey Paech ALP 15.84
Arafura Manuel Brown ALP 19.68
Crossbench seats (4)
Nightcliff Kat McNamara GRN 0.40 v ALP
Johnston Justine Davis IND 7.64 v CLP
Araluen Robyn Lambley IND 14.73 v CLP
Mulka Yingiya Mark Guyula IND 25.20 v CLP

Registered parties

[edit]

At the close of nominations for the election, five parties were registered with the Northern Territory Electoral Commission (NTEC).[18]

Candidates and retiring MLAs

[edit]

Retiring MLAs

[edit]

The following members announced that they were not contesting the 2024 election:

Labor

[edit]

Independent

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Finocchiaro announced the first CLP candidates in May 2023.[22]

Labor confirmed they would not contest the seat of Mulka on 1 August 2024, with Chief Minister Eva Lawler citing her party's "good relationship with and respect for" incumbent MLA Yingiya Mark Guyula.[23]

Nominations closed on 8 August 2024 and the ballot draws were conducted the same day. In total, 80 candidates nominated for election, down from 111 at the previous election.[24]

This is the first election since the 2008 election where the only parties to field candidates were ALP, CLP, and the Greens.

Sitting members are listed in bold. Successful candidates are highlighted in the relevant colour. Where there is possible confusion, an asterisk is used.

Seat Held by ALP candidate CLP candidate Greens candidate Independent candidates
Arafura ALP Manuel Brown Yanja Thompson
Araluen Independent Gagandeep Sodhi Sean Heenan Hugo Wells Robyn Lambley*
Wayne Wright
Arnhem ALP Selena Uibo Ian Mongunu Gumbula
Barkly CLP Lizzie Hogan Steve Edgington
Blain Independent Danielle Eveleigh Matthew Kerle Mark Turner
Braitling CLP Allison Bitar Joshua Burgoyne Asta Hill
Brennan CLP Tony Sievers Marie-Clare Boothby
Casuarina ALP Lauren Moss Khoda Patel Pamela McCalman Martin Jackson
Daly ALP Dheran Young Kris Civitarese
Drysdale ALP Eva Lawler Clinton Howe Cindy Mebbingarri Roberts
Fannie Bay ALP Brent Potter Laurie Zio Suki Dorras-Walker Leonard May
Fong Lim ALP Mark Monaghan Tanzil Rahman Simon Niblock Amye Un
Goyder Independent Sandy Griffin Andrew Mackay Belinda Kolstad
Mathew Salter
Trevor Jenkins
Gwoja ALP Chansey Paech Jarrod Jupurula Williams
Johnston ALP Joel Bowden Gary Strachan Billie Barton Justine Davis
Karama ALP Ngaree Ah Kit Brian O'Gallagher Andy Rowan Justine Glover
Katherine CLP Nick Lovering Jo Hersey Sam Phelan
Mulka Independent Allen Fanning Yingiya Mark Guyula
Namatjira CLP Sheralee Taylor Bill Yan Blair McFarland
Nelson CLP Anthony Venes Gerard Maley Beverley Ratahi
Nightcliff ALP Natasha Fyles Helen Secretary Kat McNamara George Mamouzellos
Mililma May
Port Darwin ALP Brian Manning Robyn Cahill Greg Dickson Janey Davies
Leah Potter
Sanderson ALP Kate Worden Jinson Charls
Spillett CLP Caleb Burke Lia Finocchiaro
Wanguri ALP Shlok Sharma Oly Carlson Andrew Coates Graeme Sawyer

Disendorsed candidates

[edit]
Party Candidate Seat Disendorsed Reason for disendorsement
Greens Peltherre Chris Tomlins Araluen 8 March 2024 Disendorsed over a Facebook post expressing an anti-semitic conspiracy theory.[25]

Opinion polling

[edit]

Voting intention

[edit]
Date Firm Primary vote TPP[l]
ALP CLP IND GRN SFF OTH ALP CLP
2024 election 28.8% 48.9% 14.2% 8.1% − − 42.6% 57.4%
May 2024 Freshwater Strategy[27] 29% 39% 22% 9% − − 46% 54%
16–18 November 2023 Redbridge[28] 19.7% 40.6% 14% 13.1% 9.4% 2.4%[m] 43.5% 56.5%
2020 election 39.4% 31.3% 10.7% 4.5% N/A 14.1%[n] 53.3% 46.7%

Campaign issues

[edit]

The most prominent issue in the campaign was crime, which has dramatically increased in the Territory in recent years.[29] Other issues included cost of living and pet crocodiles.[30]

The Country Liberal Party (CLP) had a policy to lower the age of criminal responsibility from 12 to 10 years old, reversing the Gunner government's 2022 increase.[31][32][33]

Results

[edit]
Main article: Results of the 2024 Northern Territory general election

Results summary

[edit]
Legislative Assembly (IRV) – (CV)
PartyVotes%+/–Seats+/–
Country Liberal49,73848.89Increase 17.5517Increase 9
Labor29,29228.79Decrease 10.644Decrease 10
Independents14,43914.19Increase 3.453Increase 1
Greens8,2728.13Increase 3.671Increase 1
Total101,741100.00–25–
Valid votes101,74196.99+0.45
Invalid/blank votes3,1603.01−0.45
Total votes104,901100.00–
Registered voters/turnout153,24868.45−6.49
Source: ABC News NTEC
Two-party-preferred vote
Country Liberal57.4Increase 10.4
Labor42.6Decrease 10.4
Total

The CLP swept Labor from power in a massive landslide, winning 58 percent of the two-party vote on a swing of 11 percent. The swing was particularly pronounced in Darwin and Palmerston. The CLP took all of Palmerston and all but two seats in Darwin, all on swings of over 10 percent. Notably, the CLP took five out of seven seats in Darwin's northern suburbs, which had been Labor's power base in the Territory since the turn of the millennium. Labor won power for the first time in 2001 by sweeping the northern suburbs, and retained all but one seat there even when defeated in 2012. It initially appeared Fyles in Nightcliff would be the only Labor member left in the Darwin/Palmerston area, but the Greens narrowly defeated her to complete Labor's urban wipeout.

Lawler herself was defeated in Drysdale by CLP challenger Clinton Howe on a swing of over 21 percent, enough on paper to turn it into a safe CLP seat in one stroke. She is the third head of government in the Territory and the fourth major-party leader to lose their own seat. All but two members of her cabinet were defeated, the only survivors being Deputy Chief Minister Chansey Paech and Selena Uibo.

Seats changing hands

[edit]

Members in italics did not seek re-election.

Seat Pre-election Swing Post-election
Party Member Margin Margin Member Party
Blain Independent Mark Turner[o] 1.3 3.4 2.1 v IND Matthew Kerle Country Liberal
Casuarina Labor Lauren Moss 16.0 17.1 1.1 Khoda Patel Country Liberal
Drysdale Labor Eva Lawler 5.4 20.3 14.9 Clinton Howe Country Liberal
Fannie Bay Labor Brent Potter 10.9 11.3 0.8 v GRN Laurie Zio Country Liberal
Fong Lim Labor Mark Monaghan 2.2 10.3 8.1 Tanzil Rahman Country Liberal
Goyder Independent Kezia Purick 6.8 19.3 12.5 v IND Andrew Mackay Country Liberal
Johnston Labor Joel Bowden 16.0 8.1 7.9 v CLP Justine Davis Independent
Karama Labor Ngaree Ah Kit 8.3 20.4 12.1 Brian O'Gallagher Country Liberal
Nightcliff Labor Natasha Fyles 24.1 24.6 0.5 v ALP Kat McNamara Greens
Port Darwin Labor Paul Kirby 1.9 14.0 12.1 Robyn Cahill Country Liberal
Sanderson Labor Kate Worden 18.8 21.0 2.2 Jinson Charls Country Liberal
Wanguri Labor Nicole Manison 17.3 26.3 9.0 Oly Carlson Country Liberal

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ The Country Liberal Party lost the electorate of Daly to Labor at a by-election in 2021.
  2. ^ On 18 February 2021, Mark Turner, the member for Blain, was expelled from the Labor Party caucus but remained a rank-and-file member of the party, although he sits on the crossbench, bringing Labor's seat total to thirteen. However, Labor won the seat of Daly from the Country Liberal Party at the 2021 Daly by-election on 11 September 2021, bringing their seat total back to fourteen. Turner was later expelled from the party completely.[1]
  3. ^ Manuel Brown was elected at the 2023 Arafura by-election after the death of Lawrence Costa
  4. ^ 3.6% was the Labor margin at the 2020 general election. The Labor margin after the 2023 Arafura by-election was 19.1%.
  5. ^ Dheran Young was elected at the 2021 Daly by-election after the resignation of Ian Sloan
  6. ^ The margin after the 2021 Daly by-election was 7.3% for Labor. The by-election margin adjusted for redistribution is 6.1% for Labor. The margin at the 2020 general election was 1.2% for the Country Liberal Party
  7. ^ Brent Potter was elected at the 2022 Fannie Bay by-election after the resignation of former Chief Minister Michael Gunner
  8. ^ 10.9% was the Labor margin at the 2020 general election. The Labor margin after the 2022 Fannie Bay by-election was 2.2%.
  9. ^ The Labor margin in Arnhem at the 2020 general election was 1.4% versus Independent Ian Mongunu Gumbula. Gumbula is running as a CLP candidate in the 2024 general election without the support of Mulka Independent MLA Yingiya Mark Guyula who supported him in 2020, which would make the 2020 two-party preferred result adjusted for redistribution a better measure of the contest.
  10. ^ Mark Turner was expelled from the Labor Party caucus in 2021 and from the party completely in 2023.[1]
  11. ^ Margin is an ABC estimate
  12. ^ The TPP estimates have been manually calculated based on preference flows.[26]
  13. ^ Animal Justice Party 2.4%
  14. ^ Includes the now defunct, Territory Alliance, who were a 12.90% share of this figure.
  15. ^ Mark Turner was elected as a Labor candidate, but was sacked from the party.

References

[edit]
  1. ^ a b "NT politician Mark Turner expelled from Labor Party". ABC News. 8 June 2023.
  2. ^ "Landslide victory for the CLP in NT election, as party steamrolls Labor in Darwin heartland". ABC News. 24 August 2024.
  3. ^ "NT election: The Country Liberals claim a landslide victory in a contest decided in suburbia". The Conversation. 25 August 2024.
  4. ^ "NT election 2024: CLP romp it home, Eva Lawler loses seat". NT News. 24 August 2024.
  5. ^ Ben Raue (4 September 2024). "Greens win Nightcliff from third place". The Tally Room.
  6. ^ Samantha Dick (27 August 2024). "Low remote voter turnout in 2024 NT election linked to 'fatigue' and failed Voice referendum". ABC News.
  7. ^ James, Felicity (21 October 2020). "Territory Alliance party ousts Robyn Lambley, leaving it with no seats in Parliament". ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 27 October 2020.
  8. ^ Jane Gibson (18 February 2021). "Blain MLA Mark Turner exiled from NT Labor caucus as staffer resigns over scandal". ABC News.
  9. ^ "Results - 2021 Division of Daly - by-election". Northern Territory Electoral Commission. 24 September 2021. Archived from the original on 27 February 2022. Retrieved 27 February 2022.
  10. ^ "Northern Territory Chief Minister Michael Gunner to resign". ABC News. 10 May 2022. Retrieved 10 May 2022.
  11. ^ "Natasha Fyles sworn in as Northern Territory Chief Minister, replacing Michael Gunner". ABC News. 13 May 2022.
  12. ^ "VIDEO: Labor's Brent Potter wins Fannie Bay by-election". ABC News. 22 August 2022.
  13. ^ "NT chief minister Natasha Fyles under pressure to resign over alleged undisclosed shares worth $2,000". The Guardian. Australian Associated Press. 19 December 2023. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 19 December 2023.
  14. ^ a b "Northern Territory Chief Minister Natasha Fyles resigns amid mounting pressure over leadership". ABC News. 19 December 2023. Retrieved 19 December 2023.
  15. ^ "Northern Territory Election Commission". Archived from the original on 10 June 2023. Retrieved 10 June 2023.
  16. ^ "So when is the next election?". Aph.gov.au. 1 September 2016. Retrieved 28 September 2017.
  17. ^ Green, Antony. "Pendulum – NT Votes 2024". ABC Elections. ABC News. Retrieved 14 August 2024.
  18. ^ "Register of political parties in the Northern Territory" (PDF). NT Electoral Commission. 28 March 2024. Retrieved 18 August 2024.
  19. ^ Smith, Camden (28 January 2024). "Territory Labor pre-selection battle looms as candidates stand up". NT News. Retrieved 13 March 2024.
  20. ^ Hislop, Jack (12 January 2024). "Former NT deputy chief minister Nicole Manison will not recontest seat of Wanguri at 2024 election". ABC News. Retrieved 13 March 2024.
  21. ^ Morgan, Thomas (15 February 2024). "NT independent MLA Kezia Purick to retire from politics at next election in August". ABC News. Retrieved 13 March 2024.
  22. ^ Finocchiaro, Lia (10 May 2023). "Budget in Reply".
  23. ^ Walsh, Fia (1 August 2024). "'It's a struggle': Araluen, Mulka and Nelson candidates unconfirmed less than a month from NT election". NT News. Retrieved 6 August 2024.
  24. ^ "List of candidates". Northern Territory Electoral Commission. 8 August 2024.
  25. ^ "NT Greens candidate dumped after Facebook post resurfaces suggesting the government is 'owned' by Zionists". ABC News. 7 March 2024.
  26. ^ "Australian Federal 2pp Estimator".
  27. ^ "NT Labor still significantly trails Country Liberal Party on a two-party preferred basis ahead of August election, new poll reveals". SkyNews. 16 May 2024. Retrieved 16 May 2024.
  28. ^ "Northern Territory Social Services" (PDF). Redbridge Group. Archived from the original (PDF) on 29 November 2023. Retrieved 29 November 2023.
  29. ^ Government, Northern Territory (19 August 2019). "Crime statistics". nt.gov.au. Retrieved 24 August 2024.
  30. ^ "NT Australian election: Pet crocodile ban in the spotlight". BBC News. 23 August 2024. Retrieved 24 August 2024.
  31. ^ "NT opposition says 'everyday Territorians' are the experts on youth crime in election pitch". ABC News. 29 February 2024.
  32. ^ "After eight years in the political wilderness, the CLP hopes it can return to power in the NT". ABC News. 8 August 2024.
  33. ^ "Here's what the major parties have promised Territorians this election". ABC News. 10 August 2024.
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