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2024 Croatian parliamentary election

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2024 Croatian parliamentary election
Croatia
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All 151 seats in the Croatian Parliament
76 seats needed for a majority
Turnout62.31% (Increase 15.87pp)
Party Leader Vote % Seats +/–
HDZ-led coalition Andrej Plenković 34.42 61 −6
Rivers of Justice Peđa Grbin 25.40 42 +2
DP-led coalition Ivan Penava 9.56 14 +2
Možemo! Sandra Benčić[a] 9.10 10 +5
Most–Sovereignists Nikola Grmoja[a] 8.02 11 −1
Focus–Republic Damir Vanđelić [hr][a] 2.25 1 0
IDS–PGS Dalibor Paus [hr] 2.25 2 −1
NPS Matija Posavec 1.22 2 New
Minority lists
SDSS Milorad Pupovac 89.00 3 0
DZMH Róbert Jankovics [hu] 100 1 0
Kali Sara Veljko Kajtazi [fr] 62.11 1 0
BZ Armin Hodžić 47.04 1 New
Independents – – 2 0
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
Result by constituency
Prime Minister before Prime Minister after
Andrej Plenković
HDZ		 Andrej Plenković
HDZ
Politics of Croatia
Coat of arms
Constitution
Executive
Legislative
Judiciary
Political parties in Sabor
Elections and referendums
Recent elections

Recent referendums

Administrative divisions
Foreign relations

Parliamentary elections were held in Croatia on 17 April 2024 to elect the members of the 11th Sabor. Prior to the elections, the government consisted of a coalition of the Croatian Democratic Union and Independent Democratic Serb Party, with parliamentary support of five national minority MPs, two MPs from the Croatian Social Liberal Party and Croatian Demochristian Party, and one independent MP, Silvano Hrelja.

The ruling centre-right HDZ won a plurality of seats for the fourth straight election obtaining a victory over the centre-left Rivers of Justice. The right-wing populist Homeland Movement finished third, with the left-wing and green We can! in fourth place. The HDZ subsequently formed a right-wing coalition with the Homeland Movement and returned HDZ leader Andrej Plenković as Prime Minister for a third term.[1]

Background

[edit]

The pre-election period was marked by speculation about the possible date of the election, potential coalitions and unification of the opposition, as well as accusations of corruption and nepotism in the government led by Prime Minister Andrej Plenković and his changes in ministers.

Changes of ministers in the government

[edit]

Plenković's two governments were marked by many changes in ministerial positions, a total of 30 ministers. Of its initial lineup in 2016, only Nina Obuljen Koržinek (Minister of Culture and Media), the Deputy Prime Minister Oleg Butković (Minister of the Sea, Transport and Infrastructure), and the Deputy Prime Minister Tomo Medved (Minister of Croatian Veterans) remained.[2] The Bridge ministers Vlaho Orepić (Minister of the Interior), Ante Šprlje (Minister of Justice), and Slaven Dobrović (Minister of Environmental Protection and Energy) were the first to leave the government. They were dismissed by Plenković for refusing to reject the vote of no confidence in Zdravko Marić (Finance Minister) requested by the opposition. Immediately afterwards, fourth The Bridge member Ivan Kovačić (Minister of Administration) resigned from the government, as did Pavo Barišić (Minister of Education) who was facing accusations of plagiarism which were later dismissed by the University of Augsburg.[2][3]

Scandals occurred in 2018, which began with the Borg affair that led to the departure of Economy Minister Martina Dalić and her replacement by Darko Horvat, who was incarcerated in Remetinec prison in 2022 after being charged with illegally awarding 2.6 million Kuna.[2][3] Davor Ivo Stier (Minister of Foreign Affairs) resigned after a disagreement with the party leadership, and his successor Marija Pejčinović Burić left in 2019 after being elected Secretary General of the Council of Europe. In 2019, five ministers left the government following a series of scandals. Lovro Kušćević (Minister of Construction and Spatial Planning) after it was found that he conducted illegal real estate brokerage while he was the mayor of Nerežišća on Brač, Goran Marić (Minister of State Property) resigned after a series of real estate scandals. An indictment against Gabrijela Žalac (Minister of Regional Development and European Union Funds) was brought for abuse of position and authority in the "Software affair", and her name was also mentioned in the Vjetroelektrana affair with Josipa Rimac. Tomislav Tolušić (Minister of Agriculture) was mentioned in numerous scandals and was later indicted for embezzlement with EU funds, including 2.5 million Kuna for his winery, which he received under irregular circumstances.[3] Nada Murganić (Minister of Demography, Family, Youth and Social Policy) was dismissed for unsatisfactory performance.[2][4]

More controversies occurred in 2020, with Milan Kujundžić (Minister of Health) leaving the government following a series of real estate scandal. Damir Krstičević (Minister of Defence) resigned after the crash of a military training plane in which two members of the Croatian Air Force died near Biljana Donje near Zadar. He was replaced by Mario Banožić, who left after committing manslaughter while driving irresponsibly.[2][3] Marko Pavić was removed as Ministry of Regional Development and EU Funds, along with Gari Cappelli (Minister of Tourism).[2] Vesna Bedeković was replaced as Minister for Demography, Family, Youth and Social Policy by Josip Aladrović, who himself was under investigation by USKOK and also resigned.[2][3] Nataša Tramišak was replaced as Minister of Regional Development and European Union Funds by Šime Erlić as part of Plenković's personal intentions. Ivan Paladina, Minister of Spatial Planning, Construction and State Property, was removed due to the slow pace of reconstruction after Zagreb and Petrinja earthquakes.[2][3]

Election date

[edit]

In 2023, it was reported that the HDZ was preparing to hold elections in April 2024, two months before the elections for members of the European Parliament. From conversations with several high-ranking HDZ members, Jutarnji list reported that that Andrej Plenković would collect advantages with which he will go before the voters and ask for another prime ministerial mandate in the next year, so that the elections can be held before the Easter holidays in 2024.[5]

On 28 February 2024, Jutarnji list reported that HDZ planned to hold the General Assembly on 17 March 2024 in the Vatroslav Lisinski Concert Hall in Zagreb, three months before the deadline. Information subsequently began to circulate that the Parliament could be dissolved on 22 March, the last day of the 21st session of the Croatian Parliament, and the dissolution could be voted on.[6] On 8 March, Plenković confirmed the dissolution of parliament on 14 March.[7]

On 14 March 2024, the Parliament unanimously voted to dissolve itself, without specifying a date for the election.[8] The following day, president Zoran Milanović announced that elections will be held on 17 April.[9][10] For the first time, the election will be held on a Wednesday,[11] while the 2000 Croatian parliamentary election was held on a Monday.[12]

Pre-election events

[edit]

The first pre-election coalition was agreed by The Bridge and Croatian Sovereignists on 8 July 2023, with an open spot for other parties ranging from the center to the right including the Homeland Movement.[13] Ivan Penava (DP) did not decline the possibility but instead called for Most to join a coalition with DP.[14] After that DP entered a short-lived alliance with the Croatian Democratic Peasant Party on 16 December 2023.[15] On 27 March 2024, DP concluded an agreement with Law and Justice, a party which emerged following the unification of The Key of Croatia, Let's Change Croatia and Independent list of Mislav Kolakušić.[16][17] On the other hand, Most and HS decided to enlarge coalition with the Independent Youth List (NLM) on 22 March 2024.[18]

On 28 July 2023, a coalition was agreed between two liberal regional parties, the Istrian Democratic Assembly and the Alliance of Primorje-Gorski Kotar, with a main goal to represent Istria and Kvarner in VII and VIII electoral districts. The coalition will also contest the 2024 European Parliament elections.[19][20] Two more liberal parties, Focus and the People's Party – Reformists announced their cooperation on 10 November 2023. The leader of the Reformists Radimir Čačić said that with a high level of certainty they expect a large expansion of this cooperation with parties close to them, who believe that Croatia is institutionally and as a society trapped by the HDZ, and that this should be stopped and space should be opened for a different, much more modern, more liberal Croatia.[21] Finally two groups made one single alliance on 9 December 2023. Four party leaders: Davor Nađi (Focus), Dalibor Paus (IDS), Radimir Čačić (NS-R) and Darijo Vasilić (PGS) pointed out that they are running against the HDZ and that after the elections they will not participate in the government with the HDZ, although Čačić did not rule out the possibility of supporting a minority government.[22] On 5 March 2024, the coalition was formally constituted under the name "For Better Croatia".[23] The coalition later collapsed after Focus decided to ally with the Republic party of Damir Vanđelić, while the Reformists still partnered with IDS and PGS in VII. and VIII constituencies and with the Rivers of Justice coalition in other constutuencues.[24][25]

Social Democratic Party dissidents led by Davorko Vidović as leader of Social Democrats made an agreement with the Croatian Peasant Party on 7 October 2023, creating the "Our Croatia" (Croatian: Naša Hrvatska) coalition.[26] Ten days later Croatian Labourists – Labour Party joined coalition emphasizing this is just continued cooperation and trust.[27] On 2 March 2024, the Democrats joined the coalition, claiming that they recognized the great potential for positive change as well as the courage and ability to gather broadly on the left and center.[28] HSS left the coalition on 5 March 2024 and joined the Rivers of Justice on 22 March 2024.[23][29] On 27 March 2024 "Our Croatia" announced a deal with the IDS, PGS and the NPS in III, VII and VIII electoral districts.[30]

The most anticipated coalition of the 2024 election was an alliance of the main opposition party Social Democratic Party of Croatia and left wing contender We can! (Možemo!). Such an idea was seen as probable because of similar policies of the parties. We can! announced on 27 June 2023 that it would run separately, leaving the possibility after the election to form a government with parties of the center to the left, including the SDP.[31] On 1 March 2024, Sandra Benčić (We can!) announced the start of negotiations with the SDP on a "dotted coalition", which means a coalition in constituencies where they do not have enough support individually. In that case, the coalition would be implemented in IV., V., VII. and IX. electoral unit, while in other units the parties would go separately.[32] On 22 March 2024 Možemo and SDP announced that an agreement was not reached, which means that they will go separately in all constituencies.[33]

On 17 February 2024, members of the left-liberal opposition held a protest under the name "Enough! Let's Go to the Elections!" (Croatian: Dosta je! Odmah na izbore!). The protest was organized by SDP, We can!, Centre, IDS, HSS and RF, Focus, SD, NS-Reformists, GLAS, and SsIP. The reason for the protest was the appointment of Judge Ivan Turudić as the Attorney General. The day before, the same parties submitted a request for the dissolution of parliament and the holding of early elections. Most and HS joined them with signatures even if they did not participate in the protests.[34][35] The next protest was held on 23 March 2024 simultaneously in Zagreb, Split, Rijeka, Osijek and Varaždin.[36]

On 5 March 2024, a large left-liberal future coalition named For a Better Croatia was announced after an inter-party meeting. The coalition will be led by the SDP with Peđa Grbin as prime ministerial candidate and will include Focus, NS R, PGS, IDS, Centre, HSS, Glas, RF, and SsIP.[23] On 6 March, IDS and PGS claimed there will be no coalition in VIII electoral district with other parties than Focus and NS-R, per previous agreements.[37] On 17 March, Grbin announced that the Workers' Front would not be part of the coalition, while the Istrian Democratic Assembly, Alliance of Primorje-Gorski Kotar and Fokus left the coalition on 19 March, citing Milanović's candidacy, which is not in accordance with the law, as the reason.[38][39][40] After the collapse of the coalition, the remaining parties reached an agreement on going to the elections under the Rivers of Justice coalition.[29]

Following the creation of the opposition coalition, HDZ announced that it would cooperate with HSLS, HDS, HNS, and HSU in some electoral districts.[41][42] Hours after announcing the election date on 15 March, President Zoran Milanović announced at a press conference that he would be the SDP's candidate for prime minister in the elections,[43] during which he would run against incumbent prime minister Andrej Plenković in electoral district I.[44] On 18 March, the Constitutional Court ruled that Milanović may not be a candidate nor could he actively participate in support of the SDP during the election campaign,[45] unless he resigns from the presidency of Croatia. In response, Milanović described the ruling as "done in a gangster way".[46] Ahead of the election, researchers from the Faculty of Political Science of University of Zagreb have developed an online electoral compass test in cooperation with Kieskompas, which positions the main political parties and the user, based on a set of questions, on the political spectrum.[47]

Electoral system

[edit]
Main article: Elections in Croatia § Parliamentary Elections
Electoral districts in use from 2023

The 151 members of the Croatian Parliament are elected from 10 geographical and two special electoral districts:[48]

  • 140 seats are elected in ten geographical 14-seat electoral districts (1st–10th Electoral Districts) by open list proportional representation (using a 5% electoral threshold) with seats allocated using the d'Hondt method
    • A voter can give their "preference vote" to a single candidate on the list, but only candidates who have received at least 10% of the party's votes take precedence over the other candidates on the list.[49]
  • 3 seats are elected in a special electoral district (11th Electoral District) for Croatian citizens living abroad
  • 8 seats are elected from an electoral district for national minorities (12th Electoral District): 3 seats for Serbian, 1 seat for Italian, 1 seat for Hungarian, 1 seat for Czech and Slovak, 1 seat for Albanian, Bosniak, Macedonian, Montenegrin and Slovenian, and 1 seat for Austrian, Bulgarian, German, Jewish, Polish, Roma, Romanian, Rusyn, Russian, Turkish, Ukrainian and Vlach national minority
    • Voters with the right to vote in the 12th Electoral District can choose to either vote for a candidate list on the ballot in the district they belong to according to their place of residence (one of the 10 geographical districts) or for a candidate of their minority in the 12th Electoral District.[50]

On 28 October 2022, the Constitutional Court issued a warning that it could declare the next elections unconstitutional unless the electoral law was changed, due to excessive differences in the number of voters for each constituency, leading to significant variations in vote weight.[51] On 7 February 2023, the Constitutional Court repealed the electoral law because the difference in vote weight between different electoral districts was too large to comply with the constitutional provision that each vote must be of equal weight.[52] Parliament passed a new electoral law on 20 October 2023, which came into effect on 3 November, requiring the next elections to be held with reorganized electoral districts.[53]

Submission of candidate lists

[edit]

Lists for the election of representatives may be proposed independently by one political party or by two or more political parties (coalition list) which are registered in the Republic of Croatia on the day the Decision to call the elections is announced, or by voters. Voters shall propose independent candidate lists on the basis of validly collected 500 signatures of residents of the Electoral District the list is running in.[54]

Parliamentary parties

[edit]

The table below lists political parties represented in the 10th Sabor prior to the election.

Parties Ideology Leader Seats Status
Last election Before election
HDZ Croatian Democratic Union Conservativism Andrej Plenković
61 / 151
61 / 151
 Governing coalition
SDP Social Democratic Party of Croatia Social democracy Peđa Grbin
34 / 151
13 / 151
 Opposition
SD Social Democrats Social democracy Davorko Vidović split from SDP
11 / 151
 Opposition
Most The Bridge Social conservatism Božo Petrov
8 / 151
8 / 151
 Opposition
DP Homeland Movement Croatian nationalism Ivan Penava
11 / 151
5 / 151
 Opposition
HS Croatian Sovereignists Souverainism Marijan Pavliček [hr]
3 / 151
4 / 151
 Opposition
Možemo! We Can! – Political Platform Green politics Sandra Benčić,
Tomislav Tomašević[55]
4 / 151
4 / 151
 Opposition
SDSS Independent Democratic Serb Party Serb minority politics Milorad Pupovac
3 / 151
3 / 151
 Governing coalition
IDS Istrian Democratic Assembly Istrian regionalism Dalibor Paus [hr]
3 / 151
2 / 151
 Opposition
HSS Croatian Peasant Party Agrarianism Krešo Beljak
2 / 151
2 / 151
 Opposition
HSLS Croatian Social Liberal Party Conservative liberalism Dario Hrebak [hr]
2 / 151
2 / 151
 Support
HDS Croatian Demochristian Party Christian democracy Goran Dodig [hr]
1 / 151
2 / 151
 Support
Fokus Focus Classical liberalism Davor Nađi [hr]
1 / 151
2 / 151
 Opposition
Centar Centre Social liberalism Ivica Puljak merger of Pametno
and IP
1 / 151
 Opposition
DO i SIP Dalija Orešković and People with a First and Last Name Anti-corruption Dalija Orešković
1 / 151
successor of IP
1 / 151
 Opposition
RF Workers' Front Democratic socialism Collective leadership
1 / 151
1 / 151
 Opposition
HNS-LD Croatian People's Party – Liberal Democrats Social liberalism Mirko Korotaj
1 / 151
1 / 151
 Support
NL New Left Social democracy Ivana Kekin
1 / 151
1 / 151
 Opposition
GLAS Civic Liberal Alliance Social liberalism Anka Mrak-Taritaš
1 / 151
1 / 151
 Opposition
NS-R People's Party – Reformists Liberalism Radimir Čačić
1 / 151
1 / 151
 Opposition
BLOK Bloc for Croatia Croatian nationalism Zlatko Hasanbegović
1 / 151
1 / 151
 Opposition
PH Righteous Croatia Croatian nationalism Milan Vrkljan split from DP
1 / 151
 Opposition
OIP Determination and Justice [hr] Croatian nationalism Karolina Vidović Krišto [hr] split from DP
1 / 151
 Opposition

Electoral lists

[edit]

On 30 March 2024, the State Electoral Commission of the Republic of Croatia (DIP) made decisions on validly submitted lists in I. – XI. electoral district and validly proposed candidates in XII. electoral district. All decisions on validly submitted lists and validly proposed candidates and summary lists were published on the same day at 5:00 p.m. on the website of the DIP.[56] The table below is a list of the main parties and electoral coalitions which are contesting the election.

Coalition Parties Leading candidate Ideology Position 2020 result Seats at dissolution Gov.
Votes (%) Seats
HDZ-led coalition
List
 Andrej Plenković Conservatism
Christian democracy
Pro-Europeanism 		Centre-right 38.56%
67 / 151
68 / 151
 checkY
Rivers of Justice
List
 Peđa Grbin Social democracy
Social liberalism
Pro-Europeanism 		Centre to centre-left 24.87%
(Restart)
3.98%
(IP–P–F)
40 / 151
20 / 151
 ☒N
DP-led coalition
List
 Ivan Penava National conservatism
Right-wing populism 		Right-wing to far-right 10.89%
12 / 151
6 / 151
 ☒N
The Bridge–Sovereignists
List
 Nikola Grmoja[a] Social conservativism
Economic liberalism
Souverainism 		Centre-right to right-wing 7.39%
12 / 151
12 / 151
 ☒N
Možemo!
List
 Sandra Benčić[a] Progressivism
Green politics 		Centre-left to left-wing 6.99%
(Green–Left)
4 / 151
4 / 151
 ☒N
Our Croatia
List
 Davorko Vidović Social democracy
Social liberalism
Regionalism 		Centre to centre-left part of Restart
3 / 151
14 / 151
 ☒N
Focus–Republic
List
 Damir Vanđelić [hr][a] Classical liberalism
Economic liberalism 		Centre 3.98%
(IP–P–F)
2 / 151
2 / 151
 ☒N
Workers' Front
List
 None[e] Democratic socialism
Left-wing populism
Progressivism 		Left-wing to far-left part of Green–Left
1 / 151
1 / 151
 ☒N
For Homeland
List
 Nikica Augustinović
Željko Glasnović 		Croatian ultranationalism
Neo-fascism 		Far-right 0.44%[f]
0 / 151
1 / 151
 ☒N
Party/Coalition I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI Submitted
Most – HS – HKS – NLM x x x x x x x x x x 27 March 2024.
Most x 27 March 2024.
Independent list of Viktor Šimunić x 27 March 2024.
MDS x 27 March 2024.
SDP – CENTAR – HSS – DO i SIP – GLAS x x 28 March 2024.
SDP – CENTAR – HSS – DO i SIP – NS R – GLAS x x x x x x x x 28 March 2024.
IDS – PGS – UK – ISU – SD – NS R – D – HL SR x 28 March 2024.
NS R – PGS – IDS – UK – SHU x 28 March 2024.
OIP x x x x x x x x x x x 28 March 2024.
SHZ x 28 March 2024.
DP – PiP – Blok – Agrameri x 28 March 2024.
DP – PiP – nezavisni – DHSS – ZL x 28 March 2024.
DP – PiP – DHSS – ZL x x 28 March 2024.
DP – PiP x x x x 28 March 2024.
DP – PiP – DHSS – ZL – Agrameri x x 28 March 2024.
Fokus – Republika x x x x x x x x x x x 28 March 2024.
AP – AS x x 28 March 2024.
HSGO x x x 28 March 2024.
NPS x 29 March 2024.
PMH x x 29 March 2024.
UZ – SU – BUZ – DSU x x x x x x x x x x 29 March 2024.
PH x x 29 March 2024.
HDZ – HSLS – HDS – HNS – HSU x x x x x x x x x x 29 March 2024.
HDZ x 29 March 2024.
Ričard nezavisni x x 29 March 2024.
RF x x x x x x x x x x 29 March 2024.
Možemo – HP x x x x x 29 March 2024.
Možemo x x x x x 29 March 2024.
Možemo – SJG x 29 March 2024.
SD – HL SR – D x 29 March 2024.
SD – IDS – PGS – HL SR – D x x x x x x x 29 March 2024.
HB x 29 March 2024.
HSP AS x 29 March 2024.
A-HSP x x x x x x x x x x x 29 March 2024.
SIP x x x x x x x x x x x 29 March 2024.
DA x 29 March 2024.
HSP – HB – HDSS x x x x x x x x x x 29 March 2024.
Independent list of Damir Kristijan Rogina x 29 March 2024.
AS – AP x x x 29 March 2024.
SRP x x 29 March 2024.
JD x x x x 29 March 2024.

12th Electoral District

[edit]
Candidate, Party Ser Hun Ita CzS xYu Oth Submitted
Armin Hodžić, Bošnjaci zajedno! x 18 March
Veljko Kajtazi, SRRH "Kali Sara" x 18 March
Franjo Horvat, "Udruga Roma korak po korak" x 23 March
Elvis Kralj, Independent x 24 March
Róber Jankovics, DZMH x 27 March
Ermina Lekaj Prljaskaj, UARH x 27 March
Furio Radin, Independent x 27 March
Vladimir Bilek, Independent x 27 March
Šoip Šoipi, Independent x 28 March
Ivan Komak, MSO x 28 March
Srđan Milaković, DSS x 28 March
Milorad Pupovac, SDSS x 29 March
Dragana Jeckov, SDSS x 29 March
Anja Šimpraga, SDSS x 29 March
Sulejman Tabaković, Independent x 29 March
Corrado Dussich, Independent x 29 March
Dragan Crnogorac, Independent x 29 March

Female representation

[edit]

It is required by the election law that each list running in the election contains at least 40% of both men and women, to ensure equality. For the lists that do not adhere to this rule, the State Electoral Commission (DIP) will report them to The Ombudsperson for Gender Equality and the State's Attorney Office of the Republic of Croatia (DORH) when the parties and candidates proposing those lists can expect a fine of up to 33 000 euros.[57][58]

Thirty-two out of 165 lists did not respect the rule and will be reported. A number of the main parties respected the rule and have at least six women and men on all their lists, among them Focus/Republic (11 lists), MOST/HS (11), RF (10), the Rivers of Justice coalition (10) and the Our Croatia coalition (eight). On the other hand, the biggest offenders are HDZ, DP/PiP coalition and MP Karolina Vidović Krišto's party OiP. For both HDZ and OiP, the fine could be high as much as 60 000 euros all together. When asked about this, Andrej Plenković responded: "There are many more women than 30, but the circumstances are such that we have a lot of candidates, we try to balance it ... ."[59][60]

While We Can! holds the record for the most women holding the first place on their lists (six constituencies), HDZ and DP/PiP have none.[61][62]

Campaign

[edit]

The official political campaign started on 30 March with the DIP publishing all of the valid lists. It will last until the end of 15 April as the election silence is enforced. It starts at midnight and lasts until 7:00 pm on the election day when the polling stations close and exit polls are published.[63][64]

The campaign was marked by increased social media advertising and content creation. Many politicians have, in order to appeal to young voters, joined social media platforms like TikTok, among the most prominent ones being Prime Minister Andrej Plenković and the Diaspora candidate Ljubo Ćesić Rojs. The platforms are still being used mostly for critique, negativity and personal attacks on opponents. Mass buying of bots, specifically HDZ's bot farms from Vietnam, has come to light.[65][66][67][68][69] On April Fools' Day, We Can! has introduced the first Croatian AI politician Nitkolina (Nikolina being a common name and "nitko" meaning "nobody") to fight fake news and misinformation.[70]

Issues

[edit]

On 12 January 2024, President Zoran Milanović publicly outed HDZ minister Damir Habijan as gay.[71] It was the first case of outing a political opponent as part of LGBT community without their approval in the political history of the country. The situation caused a wave of reactions, but LGBT rights organizations did not react and a rift was created between the activists of the community.[72][73] In April, Zagreb Pride released a controversial list of candidates running who are members of the community. The list of 11 candidates, mostly members of We Can!, included three incumbent HDZ officials who either hadn't publicly announced their orientation before or didn't give permission to be on the list, as well as two SDP candidates. Politicians like Peđa Grbin (SDP) and Damir Vanđelić (Republic) condemned the list.[74][75]

During the campaign, Zoran Milanović voiced his plan to form a broad "national salvation" coalition government of all parties except the currently governing HDZ. He also urged voters to vote for anyone except HDZ.[76][77] The Bridge stated that they will form a government with any party which accepts their program and PM candidate Nikola Grmoja. Unlike SDP, We Can! strongly rejected participating in a government with the Most or DP, saying they are the only barrier to the right in government. In case of a gridlock in government formation after the election, they are ready to provide confidence and supply to an SDP minority government from Sabor, with the condition that the right does the same and doesn't enter the new cabinet.[78][79] Ivan Penava stated that We Can! and SDSS are unacceptable as partners for the Homeland Movement, but not SDP.[80]

During a campaign rally in Split, Andrej Plenković criticized Zoran Milanović, who has espoused supportive stances on Russia, for "pushing Croatia and the Croatian people into the ‘Russian World’". He also compared the Russian invasion of Ukraine to Serbian aggression against Croatia in the 1990s.[81] The numerous political corruption scandals within the government have weakened the HDZ campaign. Some thirty ministers have had to leave the government in eight years because of corruption.[82] The scandal involving private WhatsApp messages of former HDZ official Josipa Rimac with the new State Attorney of Croatia Ivan Turudić, that were one of the causes of the 2024 Zagreb protest, continued during the campaign and this time involved the HDZ Minister of Maritime Affairs, Transport and Infrastructure Oleg Butković. In April, several previously unreleased sets of leaked messages were published by Faktograf.hr that apparently testify to some dubious actions and deal-making by Rimac, involving suspicions of lobbying, influence peddling and nepotism. Butković denied remembering contacts with Rimac.[83][84][85] In the messages, Rimac also criticized the former Conflict of Interest Commission presidents Nataša Novaković and Dalija Orešković.[86][87]

Party slogans

[edit]
Party/alliance Original slogan English translation Ref.
HDZ „Za sve izazove.“ "For all challenges." [88]
Rivers of Justice „Rijeke pravde dolaze“ "Rivers of justice are coming" [89]
Most–HS–NLM „Na tvojoj strani“ "On your side" [90][91]
DP–PiP–BLOK „Ustani i ostani“ "Rise up and remain" [92]
Možemo! „Zamisli drugačiju Hrvatsku“ "Imagine a different Croatia" [93][94]
SD–IDS–PGS–D–HL „Ozbiljno. Za Hrvatsku” "Seriously. For Croatia" [95]
Fokus–Republika „Glas razuma" "Voice of reason" [96][97]
SDSS „Hrvatska treba Srbe” "Croatia needs Serbs" [98]
RF „Beskompromisno!” "Uncompromisingly!" [99]

Election debates

[edit]
2024 Croatian parliamentary election debates
Date Organizers     P  Present    A  Absent invitee   I  Invitee   N  Non-invitee 
HDZ SDP DP Most Možemo F–R Refs
20 Feb Nova TV P

Damir Habijan

P

Branko Grčić

P

Mario Radić

P

Zvonimir Troskot

P

Damir Bakić

NI [100]
5 Mar Nova TV P

Ivan Malenica

P

Mišel Jakšić

P

Igor Peternel

P

Nikola Grmoja

P

Morena Lekan

NI [101]
19 Mar Nova TV P

Vili Beroš

P

Mišo Krstičević

P

Damir Biloglav

P

Ivan Bekavac

P

Ivana Kekin

NI [102]
20 Mar Jutarnji list P

Nikola Mažar

P

Siniša Hajdaš Dončić

P

Mario Radić

P

Nino Raspudić

P

Gordan Bosanac

NI [103]
20 Mar N1 P

Damir Habijan

P

Sanja Radolović

P

Mario Radić

P

Zvonimir Troskot

P

Damir Bakić

NI [104]
27 Mar N1 P

Nikola Mažar

P

Dalija Orešković[g]

P

Igor Peternel

P

Nikola Grmoja

P

Đuro Capor

NI [105]
2 Apr Nova TV P

Marin Piletić

P

Arsen Bauk

P

Davor Dretar

P

Marija Selak Raspudić

P

Sandra Benčić

NI [106]
3 Apr N1 P

Gordan Grlić Radman

P

Ranko Ostojić

P

Josip Jurčević

P

Nino Raspudić

P

Gordan Bosanac

NI [107]
4 Apr Večernji list P

Ivan Anušić

P

Mišel Jakšić

P

Ivan Penava

P

Vesna Vučemilović[h]

NI NI [108]
5 Apr Večernji list P

Marko Primorac

P

Ivan Račan

P

Igor Peternel

P

Nikola Grmoja

P

Gordan Bosanac

P

Davor Nađi

[109]
5 Apr RTL NI NI P

Ivan Penava

P

Nikola Grmoja

P

Sandra Benčić

NI [110]
8 Apr RTL P

Davor Božinović

P

Siniša Hajdaš Dončić

P

Stipo Mlinarić

P

Nino Raspudić

P

Gordan Bosanac

NI [111]
9 Apr Večernji list P

Gordan Grlić Radman

P

Bojan Glavašević[i]

P

Tomislav Josić

P

Nino Raspudić

P

Danijela Dolenec

NI [112]
9 Apr RTL P

Nikola Mažar

P

Dalija Orešković[g]

P

Ante Šušnjar

P

Nikola Grmoja

P

Sandra Benčić

NI [113]
10 Apr RTL P

Marin Piletić

P

Sanja Radolović

P

Igor Peternel

P

Marija Selak Raspudić

P

Danijela Dolenec

NI [114]
11 Apr Večernji list P

Davor Ivo Stier

P

Arsen Bauk

NI P

Nino Raspudić

P

Gordan Bosanac

NI [115]
12 Apr Večernji list P

Nina Obuljen Koržinek

P

Dalija Orešković[g]

NI P

Marija Selak Raspudić

P

Sandra Benčić

NI [116]
Date Organizers HDZ SDP DP Most Možemo IDS F–R RF NPS UZ Refs
12 Apr HRT P

Marin Piletić

P

Mirela Ahmetović

P

Tomislav Josić

P

Nikola Grmoja

P

Sandra Benčić

P

Dalibor Paus

P

Davor Nađi

P

Katarina Peović

P

Matija Posavec

P

Milivoj Špika

[117]
[118]
[119]

Unlike in 2016[120] and 2020,[121] the leaders of two biggest parties, HDZ and SDP, did not attend a single debate. Peđa Grbin challenged Andrej Plenković to one, but Plenković refused to debate Grbin, as the PM candidate of Rivers of Justice is Zoran Milanović. The Prime Minister refused to debate other political opponents, saying that he doesn't have anyone to debate with. DP leader Ivan Penava and PM candidates Nikola Grmoja (Most) and Sandra Benčić (Možemo!) also challenged Plenković to a debate. Grbin, Grmoja and Benčić all suggested Plenković is afraid and/or called him a coward.[122][123][124][125][126] To the calls to debate them, Plenković responded by saying: "This is a political match in which Grbin capitulated before the formal campaign, Milanović violates the Constitution, and a political trifle, like Most, is not someone we would confront (in a debate)." Plenković, Grbin and Penava all skipped the big HRT debate, while Grmoja and Benčić attended.[127]

Opinion polls

[edit]
Main article: Opinion polling for the 2024 Croatian parliamentary election
LOESS curve of the polling for the 2024 Croatian Parliamentary Election excluding undecided.

Voter turnout

[edit]
Turnout Time
11:30 16:30 19:00
2020 2024 ± 2020 2024 ± 2020 2024 ±
Total 18.09% 24.18% Increase 6.09 pp 34.04% 50.60% Increase 16.56 pp 46.44% 62.31% Increase 15.87 pp
Sources: Izbori[128]

Results

[edit]

The election produced a fourth consecutive victory for the governing HDZ; however, the opposition parties denied it a one-party majority in the Sabor. The official results showed that HDZ's coalition won 61 seats, almost 20 seats more than the second placed Rivers of Justice coalition whose 42 candidates were elected.[129] Despite HDZ's plurality of votes, in order to form a governing majority, they still required to rely on forming a coalition, with the most likely partners the third-placed far-right party, the Homeland Movement, which won 14 seats.[130] The Homeland Movement therefore has the kingmaker position,[130] although it declined to say whether they would join a left-leaning or right-leaning bloc and setting the condition that they will not enter into a coalition with SDSS and Možemo.[131]

Among the other opposition parties, conservative The Bridge along with partners Croatian Sovereignists won 11 seats, and the green-left We Can! who won 10, both declared after the vote they intended to start talks with potential allies aimed at putting together some form of majority administration.[132] The latter party also encouraged all smaller parties regardless of political leanings to come to an agreement in order to oust HDZ from power. The Workers' Front failed to achieve the 5% electoral threshold, leaving the party without a representative in the Sabor.[133]

PartyVotes%Seats+/–
Croatian Democratic Union coalition[i]729,94934.4261–6
Rivers of Justice[ii]538,74825.4042+2
Homeland Movement coalition[iii]202,7149.5614+2
We can!193,0519.1010+5
The Bridge–Croatian Sovereignists[iv]169,9888.0211–1
Focus–Republic[v]47,7152.2510
Our Croatia[vi]47,6552.252–1
UZ–SU–BUZ [hr]–DSU40,7551.9200
Determination and Justice [hr]26,1981.240New
Independent Platform of the North25,8301.222New
Party of Ivan Pernar19,3670.9100
HSP–HB–HDSS18,1280.8500
Workers' Front16,8690.800–1
Agrarian Party–Action for Change7,0510.330New
Autochthonous Croatian Party of Rights6,2910.3000
Movement for a Modern Croatia1,6840.0800
Public Good1,6500.080New
Socialist Labour Party of Croatia1,2060.0600
Righteous Croatia1,1240.050New
Croatian Civil Resistance Party9980.0500
Croatian Party of Rights — Dr. Ante Starčević8820.040New
Međimurje Democratic Union7620.040New
Dalmatian Action6990.030New
Party of Croatian Unity2310.010New
Independents21,2341.0000
Total2,120,779100.001430
Valid votes2,120,77997.27
Invalid/blank votes59,6322.73
Total votes2,180,411100.00
Registered voters/turnout3,523,27061.89
Minority lists
Independent Democratic Serb Party30
Bošnjaci zajedno!1New
Croatian Romani Union "Kali Sara"10
Democratic Union of Hungarians10
Independents20
Total80
Valid votes33,91497.56
Invalid/blank votes8492.44
Total votes34,763100.00
Source: Results[134]

Minority seats

[edit]
CandidatePartyVotes%
Serbs
Milorad PupovacIndependent Democratic Serb Party11,66031.60
Anja ŠimpragaIndependent Democratic Serb Party10,84229.38
Dragana JeckovIndependent Democratic Serb Party10,34428.03
Srđan MilakovićDemocratic Alliance of Serbs2,1895.93
Dragan CrnogoracIndependent1,8695.06
Total36,904100.00
Valid votes15,35396.37
Invalid/blank votes5793.63
Total votes15,932100.00
Registered voters/turnout15,93999.96
Italians
Furio RadinIndependent97150.92
Corrado DussichIndependent93649.08
Total1,907100.00
Valid votes1,90797.74
Invalid/blank votes442.26
Total votes1,951100.00
Registered voters/turnout1,951100.00
Hungarians
Róbert Jankovics [hu]Democratic Union of Hungarians of Croatia2,804100.00
Total2,804100.00
Valid votes2,80497.46
Invalid/blank votes732.54
Total votes2,877100.00
Registered voters/turnout2,877100.00
Czechs and Slovaks
Vladimir BilekIndependent1,76493.04
Ivan KomakMatica Slovačka Osijek1326.96
Total1,896100.00
Valid votes1,89699.42
Invalid/blank votes110.58
Total votes1,907100.00
Registered voters/turnout1,90899.95
Albanians, Bosniaks, Montenegrins, Macedonians and Slovenes
Armin HodžićBošnjaci zajedno!3,35747.04
Ermina Lekaj PrljaskajUnion of Albanians of Croatia2,24931.51
Šoip ŠoipiIndependent1,41419.81
Sulejman TabakovićIndependent1171.64
Total7,137100.00
Valid votes7,13799.04
Invalid/blank votes690.96
Total votes7,206100.00
Registered voters/turnout7,21399.90
Austrians, Bulgarians, Germans, Poles, Roma, Romanians,
Ruthenians, Russians, Turks, Ukrainians, Vlachs and Jews
Veljko KajtaziCroatian Romani Union "Kali Sara"3,01762.12
Franjo HorvatUdruga Roma "Korak po korak"1,40028.82
Elvis KraljIndependent4409.06
Total4,857100.00
Valid votes4,85798.60
Invalid/blank votes691.40
Total votes4,926100.00
Registered voters/turnout4,93199.90
Source: Results[134]

Results by constituency

[edit]
Constituency HDZ Rivers of Justice DP Most Možemo Our Croatia F-R
% Seats % Seats % Seats % Seats % Seats % Seats % Seats
I 27.7 5 24.4 4 9.3 1 7.4 1 19.9 3 0.9 – 3.4 –
II 35.3 6 24.8 4 11.1 2 9.1 1 8.6 1 1.2 – 2.8 –
III 27.6 5 36.8 6 5.1 0 3.8 – 6.2 1 12.2 2 0.9 –
IV 41.8 7 25.2 4 13.1 2 6.0 1 5.5 0 1.0 – 1.0 –
V 42.8 7 19.6 3 17.4 3 8.5 1 3.6 – 0.4 – 1.0 –
VI 24.8 4 23.8 4 8.7 1 9.5 1 18.1 3 0.6 – 7.8 1
VII 41.3 7 25.4 4 8.6 1 6.6 1 6.9 1 1.0 – 1.6 –
VIII 21.3 4 33.4 6 4.0 – 5.7 1 10.2 1 15.9 2 1.9 –
IX 39.7 7 19.4 3 10.6 2 12.1 2 4.4 – 0.9 – 1.0 –
X 37.0 6 25.5 4 10.8 2 11.5 2 5.3 0 0.5 – 0.5 –
XI 79.5 3 – – – – 6.6 0 3.0 – – – 0.5 –
Total 34.4 61 25.4 42 9.6 14 8.0 11 9.1 10 3.5 4 2.3 1
Source: Results[134]

Aftermath

[edit]

Andrej Plenković claimed victory on behalf of the HDZ and said that it would begin the process of forming a new parliamentary majority to form the HDZ's third government on 18 April 2024. He also congratulated other contesting parties.[129] SDP leader Peđa Grbin said that they had hoped for a better result but said that they would also start talks on the formation of a new government on 18 April.[135] During negotiation talks, the DP was labeled the kingmaker of the election.[136][137]

On 19 April, the Constitutional Court ruled that President Zoran Milanović was ineligible to become prime minister in the event that the SDP would be able to form a government, citing his statements and behavior during the electoral campaign. According to the ruling, he would be barred from being given the mandate to form a new government even if he previously resigned as President.[138] Three of the Constitutional Court judges released a dissenting opinion pointing out there are no specific arguments or regulations to justify the decision. They cited "unconstitutional threats" of the Court and criticized the potential undermining of the will of the people.[139] Milanović gave a statement in front of a photo showing "HDZ's man" Miroslav Šeparović, the Court's President, hanging out together with HDZ ministers Oleg Butković and Branko Bačić, accusing the Court of preparing a coup d'état.[140][141]

As one of the scenarios for the formation of a new government, Grbin presented the idea of an anti-corruption government. This would imply the constitution of a Parliament in which, at least temporarily, the majority will be all opposition parties (Možemo!, Rivers of Justice, IDS, Fokus, Most, and DP). Such a parliamentary majority could pass several important laws, including the electoral one, as well as annul the appointment of State Attorney Ivan Turudić. After that, in the event that the parties could not agree on the formation of a joint government, new elections could be held.[142]

On 21 April, elections were repeated in two polling stations. The first was in Sračinec, where an excess of ballots was found in the ballot boxes. The irregularity referred to the list of candidates in the XII electoral unit where representatives of the Albanian, Bosniak, Montenegrin, Macedonian and Slovenian national minorities were elected. The second polling station was in Markušica, where it was discovered that by mistake 83 persons of Serbian nationality voted twice, namely for the V electoral unit and for the candidates of the XII electoral unit of the Serbian national minority.[143]

On 27 April, the DP held negotiation talks with both the HDZ and SDP, with Prime Minister Andrej Plenković announcing that the HDZ would form a formal coalition with the DP some time in "the coming days."[144]

On 29 April, the State Electoral Commission published the final results, setting a deadline to 19 May for holding the first session of the Sabor with president Milanović deciding the exact date.[145]

On 5 May, an agreement was reached on the HDZ and DP government, with Plenković as prime minister. DP will receive three ministries, demography, agriculture, and energy, which will be separated from the Ministry of Economy.[146] Members of the Serb community were excluded from the new cabinet due to opposition from the DP.[147] On 10 May Plenković submitted 78 signatures of representatives at a meeting with president Milanović at the Presidential Palace, after which Milanović gave him a mandate to form the government. The signatures were given by 61 representatives of the HDZ coalition, 12 representatives of the DP, four representatives of minorities and Vesna Vučemilović, who was subsequently expelled from the Croatian Sovereignists.[148] The Sabor issued its approval of the new government in a 79-61 vote on 17 May.[149]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c d e f as a prime minister nominee
  2. ^ running on Our Croatia list in the 8th Electoral district
  3. ^ a b c IDS and PGS are running with a separate list from the rest of the Our Croatia coalition, but together with NS-R, in the 7th Electoral district
  4. ^ pact with Our Croatia; running independently in the 3rd Electoral district with support of the coalition
  5. ^ The party neither has a leader in general (Collective leadership) nor did it announce a PM candidate; Katarina Peović is the party's only MP and de facto spokesperson
  6. ^ Glasnović also won 20.97% as an independent candidate in the 11th Electoral district
  7. ^ a b c Debater for Rivers of Justice as part of coalition, member of DO I SIP
  8. ^ Debater for Most-HS-HKS-NLM coalition, member of HS
  9. ^ Debater for Rivers of Justice as part of coalition, Independent
  1. ^ Of the 61 seat won by the coalition, the Croatian Democratic Union won 55, Croatian Social Liberal Party won two, and Croatian Demochristian Party, Croatian People's Party – Liberal Democrats, Croatian Party of Pensioners and independent Marijana Petir won one each
  2. ^ Of the 42 seats won by the coalition, the Social Democratic Party of Croatia won 37, Centre won two, and Croatian Peasant Party, Civic Liberal Alliance, Dalija Orešković and People with a First and Last Name won one each
  3. ^ Of the 14 seats won by the coalition, the Homeland Movement won 11 and the Law and Justice, independent Željko Lacković and independent Ivan Šipić one each
  4. ^ Of the 11 seats won by the coalition, The Bridge won nine and the Croatian Sovereignists two
  5. ^ Only seat was won by the Focus
  6. ^ Including the IDS-PGS result in the VII district; both seats were won by Istrian Democratic Assembly

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Lajla Veselica (8 May 2024). "Croatia's Ruling Party Reaches Coalition Deal With Right Wing". Barron's.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h Deželić, Vanja (12 December 2023). "Ovo su svi ministri koji su otišli ili ih je Andrej Plenković smijenio" [These are all the ministers who left or were dismissed by Andrej Plenković]. N1 (in Croatian). Archived from the original on 18 February 2024. Retrieved 18 February 2024.
  3. ^ a b c d e f Srzić, Ante (13 December 2023). "Od neposlušnih mostovaca do zbunjenog Filipovića: Tko je sve odletio iz Plenkovićeve vlade" [From disobedient Most ministers to confused Filipović: Who flew away from Plenković's government]. tportal.hr. Archived from the original on 18 February 2024. Retrieved 18 February 2024.
  4. ^ Ivandić, Ivana (31 December 2019). "Smjena Nade Murganić i povećanje porodiljnih naknada obilježili su socijalnu politiku" [The dismissal of Nada Murganić and the increase in maternity benefits marked social policy]. tportal.hr (in Croatian). Archived from the original on 18 February 2024. Retrieved 18 February 2024.
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  18. ^ "Most na izbore ide s Nezavisnom listom mladih" [Bridge is going to the elections with the Independent Youth List]. Glas Istre (in Croatian). 22 March 2024. Archived from the original on 22 March 2024. Retrieved 22 March 2024.
  19. ^ "IDS i PGS zajedno na europarlamentarne i parlamentarne izbore" [IDS and PGS together in the European parliamentary and parliamentary elections]. HRT (in Croatian). 28 July 2023. Archived from the original on 25 November 2023. Retrieved 20 December 2023.
  20. ^ "Paus: IDS potpisivanjem koalicije s PGS-om ulazi u borbu za 4. mandat na parlamentarnim izborima i gradi širu koaliciju za europske izbore" [Paus: IDS, by signing a coalition with PGS, enters the fight for the 4th mandate in the parliamentary elections and builds a wider coalition for the European elections]. 5portal (in Croatian). 1 August 2023. Archived from the original on 20 December 2023. Retrieved 20 December 2023.
  21. ^ "Fokus i Reformisti potpisali predizbornu koaliciju: "S HDZ-om ni pod koju cijenu"" [Fokus and the Reformists signed a pre-election coalition: "Not with HDZ at any cost"]. Novi List (in Croatian). 10 November 2023. Archived from the original on 20 December 2023. Retrieved 20 December 2023.
  22. ^ "Sklopljena predizborna koalicija: "Manjinska bi vlada bila jako zdrava za Hrvatsku jer je previše bahatluka"" [The pre-election coalition was concluded: "A minority government would be very healthy for Croatia because there is too much arrogance"]. Dnevnik.hr (in Croatian). 9 December 2023. Archived from the original on 16 December 2023. Retrieved 20 December 2023.
  23. ^ a b c Škaro, Katarina (5 March 2024). "Postignut dogovor, SDP u koaliciju okuplja ljevicu i stranke centra: 'Dosta je HDZ-a, lopovluka, korupcije. Hrvatska zaslužuje bolje'" [An agreement has been reached, the SDP gathers the left and center parties into a coalition: 'Enough of HDZ, thievery, corruption. Croatia deserves better']. Telegram (in Croatian). Archived from the original on 5 March 2024. Retrieved 6 March 2024.
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