2024 Brandenburg state election
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All 88 seats of the Landtag of Brandenburg 45 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Turnout | 1,513,638 (72.9%)  11.6 pp | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Winning candidates in the single-member constituencies. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The election to the state parliament Landtag of Brandenburg of 22 September 2024 was the third state election within Germany in the month of September 2024, three weeks after the state elections in Thuringia and in Saxony, all part of former East Germany.[1][2][3][4] The outgoing government was a black-red-green "flag of Kenya" coalition consisting of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and The Greens, led by Minister-President Dietmar Woidke of the SPD.
Despite polling showing them consistently trailing in second place, the SPD, which has governed Brandenburg since its 1990 re-establishment, remained the largest party with a five percentage point swing in its favour. The Alternative for Germany gained six points and won 29% of the vote. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) debuted at 13.5%, followed by the CDU which declined to 12%. The outgoing government narrowly lost its majority as the Greens collapsed and fell short of the 5% electoral threshold, losing all their seats. The Left also suffered major losses and fell out of the Landtag, as did the Free Voters. The FDP, which had won 9.3 % of the vote in the 2021 German federal election in Brandenburg, fell to 0.8 % of the vote, their worst result in any state election ever, eclipsing the 0.9 % of the vote in Saxony two weeks prior.
Background
[edit]The 2019 Brandenburg state election had resulted in the formation of the third Woidke cabinet, a "Kenya" coalition of the SPD, CDU, and Greens. The SPD remained the strongest party with small losses, just ahead of the AfD, which became the second largest party on a large swing. The CDU and The Left each recorded significant losses. The Greens achieved their best result to date with almost 11%. BVB/Free Voters improved to 5.0%. The FDP remained below the electoral threshold with 4.1% and did not win seats.
The SPD has governed Brandenburg continuously since the first post-reunification election in 1990. In the 2021 German federal election, the party won all 10 federal constituencies across the state.
The Brandenburg election was the third in a string of elections in Eastern Germany in September 2024, each of which saw a strong performance for the far-right AfD. In Thuringia the party became the largest in a state parliament for the first time; it also recorded its best result to date in Saxony. The parties involved in the federal Scholz government also suffered losses in each. The performance of Woidke's SPD in Brandenburg was considered a key test of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's leadership. The Brandenburg SPD campaigned on Woidke's personal popularity; Woidke pledged to resign if the SPD did not remain the largest party, encouraging tactical voting to deny AfD first place. He also received an unusual endorsement from the Minister-President of Saxony, Michael Kretschmer of CDU, who stated "the strongest party needs to be a democratic party".[5][6]
Parties and lists
[edit]| Party | 2019 result | Con. candidates |
List candidates |
Lead candidate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Social Democratic Party (SPD) | 26.2% | 44 | 87 | Dietmar Woidke | |
| Alternative for Germany (AfD) | 23.5% | 43 | 35 | Hans-Christoph Berndt | |
| Christian Democratic Union (CDU) | 15.6% | 44 | 45 | Jan Redmann | |
| Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE) | 10.8% | 44 | 30 | Antje Töpfer | |
| The Left (LINKE) | 10.7% | 43 | 35 | Sebastian Walter | |
| Brandenburg Civic Movement/Free Voters (BVB/FW) | 5.0% | 44 | 39 | Péter Vida | |
| Free Democratic Party (FDP) | 4.1% | 44 | 17 | Zyon Braun | |
| Human Environment Animal Protection (Tierschutz) | 2.6% | 4 | 13 | Christiane Müller-Schmolt | |
| Plus Brandenburg (PLUS) | 1.3% | 12 | 17 | Thomas Bennühr | |
| BSW Brandenburg (BSW) | – | – | 30 | Robert Crumbach | |
| Third Way (III. Weg) | – | 5 | 7 | Matthias Fischer | |
| German Communist Party (DKP) | – | 4 | 4 | Fabian Große | |
| German Rural Economy (DLW) | – | 6 | 10 | Benjamin Meise | |
| Values Union (WU) | – | – | 13 | Anna-Sophia Werz | |
| Other | – | 11 | – | ||
Opinion polls
[edit]Graphical summary
[edit]
Party polling
[edit]| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
SPD | AfD | CDU | Grüne | Linke | BVB/FW | FDP | BSW | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 state election | 22 Sep 2024 | – | 30.9 | 29.2 | 12.1 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 13.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 17–21 Sep 2024 | 940 | 28 | 27 | 13.5 | 4 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 12.5 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 18–19 Sep 2024 | 1,118 | 27 | 28 | 14 | 4.5 | 4 | 3.5 | – | 13 | 6 | 1 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 11–18 Sep 2024 | 982 | 26.5 | 28.5 | 15 | 4 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 2 |
| INSA | 9–16 Sep 2024 | 1,000 | 25 | 28 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 4 | 3 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 10–12 Sep 2024 | 1,060 | 26 | 29 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 3 | – | 14 | 5 | 3 |
| Infratest dimap | 9–11 Sep 2024 | 1,513 | 26 | 27 | 16 | 4.5 | 4 | 4.5 | – | 13 | 5 | 1 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 28 Aug – 5 Sep 2024 | 1,420 | 20.5 | 30 | 15 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 1 | 14.5 | 5.5 | 9.5 |
| Infratest dimap | 3–4 Sep 2024 | 1,207 | 23 | 27 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 3 | – | 15 | 5 | 4 |
| INSA | 29 Jul–6 Aug 2024 | 1,000 | 20 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 4 | 4 |
| INSA | 8–15 Jul 2024 | 1,000 | 19 | 24 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 5 |
| Infratest dimap | 4–9 Jul 2024 | 1,153 | 19 | 23 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 6 | 4 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 15–23 Jun 2024 | 1,000 | 16 | 29 | 16.5 | 5 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 17 | 6 | 12.5 |
| European Parliament election | 9 Jun 2024 | – | 13.1 | 27.5 | 18.4 | 6.0 | 4.4 | – | 3.2 | 13.8 | 13.6 | 9.1 |
| INSA | 13–21 May 2024 | 1,000 | 19 | 25 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 6 |
| Infratest dimap | 4–8 Apr 2024 | 1,161 | 22 | 26 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 3 | – | 10 | 7 | 4 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 28 Mar – 7 Apr 2024 | 1,100 | 21 | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 6 |
| INSA | 14–22 Mar 2024 | 1,000 | 19 | 25 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 6 |
| INSA | 8–15 Jan 2024 | 1,000 | 17 | 28 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 3[a] | 10 |
| Forsa | 6–10 Jan 2024 | 1,007 | 22 | 32 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| INSA | 13–22 Nov 2023 | 1,000 | 20 | 27 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 7 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 24 Oct–1 Nov 2023 | 1,017 | 27 | 32 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 7 | 6 | 2.5 | – | 5.5 | 5 |
| 21.5 | 22 | 12 | 4.5 | 5 | 4 | 2.5 | 21.5 | 7 | 0.5 | |||
| Infratest dimap | 8–11 Sep 2023 | 1,160 | 20 | 32 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | – | 4 | 12 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 10–14 Aug 2023 | 1,003 | 25 | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 2 | – | 6 | 5 |
| 22 | 22 | 13 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 5 | 2 | 19.5 | 4.5 | Tie | |||
| INSA | 26 Jun–3 Jul 2023 | 1,000 | 21 | 28 | 18 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 3 | – | 6 | 7 |
| IFM | 22 May–1 Jun 2023 | 1,000 | 24 | 24 | 17 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 4 | – | 2 | Tie |
| Infratest dimap | 19–24 Apr 2023 | 1,200 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 5 | – | 6 | Tie |
| INSA | 27 Mar–4 Apr 2023 | 1,000 | 21 | 25 | 19 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 4 | – | 6 | 4 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 7–13 Mar 2023 | 978 | 23.5 | 26 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 6.5 | 3 | – | 7 | 2.5 |
| pmg – policy matters | 28 Nov–15 Dec 2022 | 1,011 | 27 | 23 | 17 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 6 | – | 6 | 4 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 6–18 Nov 2022 | 1,922 | 26 | 26 | 13.5 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 3.5 | – | 6 | Tie |
| INSA | 4–10 Oct 2022 | 1,000 | 22 | 25 | 17 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 4 | – | 6 | 3 |
| Infratest dimap | 22–26 Sep 2022 | 1,165 | 24 | 24 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 4 | – | 6 | Tie |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 4–11 Sep 2022 | 1,100 | 26.5 | 25 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 5 | – | 6.5 | 1.5 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 9–17 May 2022 | 1,001 | 30 | 19 | 16 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 4.5 | – | 5.5 | 11 |
| Infratest dimap | 21–24 Apr 2022 | 1,182 | 30 | 19 | 18 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 6 | – | 3 | 11 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 21–29 Mar 2022 | 1,002 | 29 | 20 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 5 | – | 6 | 9 |
| Forsa | 9–17 Dec 2021 | 1,008 | 28 | 17 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 6 | – | 5 | 11 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 8–16 Dec 2021 | 1,040 | 34 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 7 | – | 6 | 15 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 7–14 Oct 2021 | 980 | 32 | 19.5 | 9 | 9.5 | 7 | 9.5 | 7 | – | 6.5 | 12.5 |
| 2021 federal election | 26 Sep 2021 | – | 29.5 | 18.1 | 15.3 | 9.0 | 8.5 | – | 9.3 | – | 10.3 | 11.4 |
| Infratest dimap | 25–30 Aug 2021 | 1,157 | 34 | 17 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 7 | – | 5 | 17 |
| Infratest dimap | 12–15 May 2021 | 1,183 | 23 | 18 | 16 | 16 | 11 | 4 | 7 | – | 5 | 5 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 7–13 May 2021 | – | 22 | 18 | 14 | 19 | 9 | 8 | 5 | – | 5 | 3 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 12–19 Mar 2021 | – | 24 | 18 | 14 | 14 | 10.5 | 9 | 5 | – | 5.5 | 6 |
| Forsa | 10–15 Dec 2020 | 1,001 | 23 | 16 | 20 | 15 | 12 | 6 | 4 | – | 4 | 7 |
| Infratest dimap | 12–17 Nov 2020 | 1,002 | 26 | 19 | 20 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 5 | – | 4 | 7 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 30 Sep–7 Oct 2020 | 1,089 | 23 | 19 | 17 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 2 | – | 5.5 | 4 |
| INSA | 29 Sep–6 Oct 2020 | 1,043 | 21 | 20 | 17 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 4 | – | 4 | 1 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 19–27 Aug 2020 | – | 26 | 16.5 | 19 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | – | 5.5 | 7 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 12–19 Jun 2020 | – | 28 | 16 | 22 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 3 | – | 4 | 6 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 4–11 May 2020 | – | 29.5 | 20 | 23 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 4 | 4 | – | 4.5 | 6.5 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 3–8 Apr 2020 | – | 28 | 21 | 20.5 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 3 | – | 5.5 | 7 |
| Infratest dimap | 31 Mar–4 Apr 2020 | 1,000 | 27 | 20 | 19 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 4 | – | 4 | 7 |
| Forsa | 20–25 Feb 2020 | 1,001 | 22 | 18 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 7 | 3 | – | 6 | 4 |
| Infratest dimap | 11–16 Nov 2019 | 1,000 | 25 | 22 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 5 | – | 5 | 1 |
| 2019 state election | 1 Sep 2019 | – | 26.2 | 23.5 | 15.6 | 10.8 | 10.7 | 5.0 | 4.1 | – | 4.1 | 2.7 |
Results
[edit]
The SPD secured a victory, increasing both its popular vote percentage and the amount of seats held.[5][7] Nonetheless, the two largest populist parties – the left-wing[8] BSW[9] and the far-right AfD[10] – earned significant results, combining for precisely half of all the seats in the legislature. The Greens, the Left and the BVB/Free Voters faced a complete defeat, losing all of their seats. Finally, the FDP fell to less than 1% of the vote.
Overall, the outgoing coalition between the SPD, the CDU and the Greens earned 47.1% of the vote in a decline compared to their combined total of 52.6% of the vote in the 2019 election.[11]
 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Party-list | Constituency | Total seats | +/– | ||||||||
| Votes | % | +/– | Seats | Votes | % | +/– | Seats | |||||
| Social Democratic Party | 463,678 | 30.89 | 4.70 | 13 | 500,923 | 33.57 | 7.75 | 19 | 32 | 7 | ||
| Alternative for Germany | 438,811 | 29.23 | 5.72 | 5 | 470,412 | 31.52 | 9.37 | 25 | 30 | 7 | ||
| Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance | 202,343 | 13.48 | New | 14 | 14 | New | ||||||
| Christian Democratic Union | 181,632 | 12.10 |  3.47 | 12 | 238,247 | 15.97 | 1.49 | 0 | 12 | 3 | ||
| Alliance 90/The Greens | 62,031 | 4.13 | 6.65 | 0 | 51,373 | 3.44 | 6.86 | 0 | 0 | 10 | ||
| The Left | 44,692 | 2.98 | 7.74 | 0 | 77,123 | 5.17 | 7.01 | 0 | 0 | 10 | ||
| BVB/Free Voters | 38,596 | 2.57 | 0.19 | 0 | 104,722 | 7.02 | 2.48 | 0 | 0 | 5 | ||
| Animal Protection Party | 30,032 | 2.00 | 0.60 | 0 | 3,758 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | – | ||
| Plus Brandenburg | 13,577 | 0.90 | 0.36 | 0 | 8,900 | 0.60 | 0.48 | 0 | 0 | – | ||
| Free Democratic Party | 12,462 | 0.83 | 3.25 | 0 | 20,389 | 1.37 | 2.28 | 0 | 0 | – | ||
| German Rural Economy | 6,619 | 0.44 | New | 0 | 4,536 | 0.30 | New | 0 | 0 | – | ||
| Values Union | 3,877 | 0.26 | New | 0 | 0 | – | ||||||
| Third Way | 1,810 | 0.12 | New | 0 | 756 | 0.05 | New | 0 | 0 | – | ||
| German Communist Party | 1,028 | 0.07 | New | 0 | 743 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | – | ||
| Grassroots Democratic Party | 394 | 0.03 | New | 0 | 0 | – | ||||||
| Democrats BB | 800 | 0.05 | New | 0 | 0 | – | ||||||
| Die PARTEI | 222 | 0.01 | 0.51 | – | 0 | – | ||||||
| Other | 8,939 | 0.60 | – | 0 | – | |||||||
| Total | 1,501,188 | 100.00 | – | 44 | 1,492,237 | 100.00 | – | 44 | 88 | – | ||
| Valid votes | 1,501,188 | 99.18 | 1,492,237 | 98.59 | ||||||||
| Invalid/blank votes | 12,450 | 0.82 | 21,401 | 1.41 | ||||||||
| Total votes | 1,513,638 | 100.00 | 1,513,638 | 100.00 | ||||||||
| Registered voters/turnout | 2,076,953 | 72.88 | 11.55 | 2,076,953 | 72.88 | |||||||
| Source: Wahlen Brandenburg | ||||||||||||
-
SPD vote -
AfD vote -
BSW vote -
CDU vote -
Green vote -
Linke vote -
BVB-FW vote -
Turnout
Members
[edit]| Constituency | Member | Party | Votes (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | Prignitz I | Adam, Jean-René | AfD | 34.5 |
| 002 | Prignitz II/Ostprignitz-Ruppin II | Arndt, Torsten | AfD | 36.2 |
| 003 | Ostprignitz-Ruppin I | Liedtke, Ulrike | SPD | 34.6 |
| 004 | Ostprignitz-Ruppin III/Havelland II | Berger, Kai | AfD | 35.0 |
| 005 | Havelland I | Funke, Johannes | SPD | 36.1 |
| 006 | Havelland II | Sahi, Julia | SPD | 37.1 |
| 007 | Oberhavel I | Noack, Andreas | SPD | 34.0 |
| 008 | Oberhavel II | Grimm, Benjamin | SPD | 37.0 |
| 009 | Oberhavel III | Zimmermann, Tim | AfD | 33.4 |
| 010 | Uckermark III/Oberhavel IV | Galau, Andreas | AfD | 35.8 |
| 011 | Uckermark I | Teichner, Felix | AfD | 39.8 |
| 012 | Uckermark II | Rescher, Norbert | AfD | 39.7 |
| 013 | Barnim I | Kuffert, Roman | AfD | 32.8 |
| 014 | Barnim II | John, Steffen | AfD | 26.3 |
| 015 | Barnim III | Kotré, Lena | AfD | 34.9 |
| 016 | Brandenburg an der Havel I/Potsdam-Mittelmark I | Wernitz, Udo | SPD | 32.1 |
| 017 | Brandenburg an der Havel II | Kornmesser Britta, | SPD | 39.2 |
| 018 | Potsdam-Mittelmark II | Balzer, Melanie | SPD | 38.3 |
| 019 | Potsdam-Mittelmark III/Potsdam III | Adler, Uwe | SPD | 39.8 |
| 020 | Potsdam-Mittelmark IV | Rüter, Sebastien | SPD | 40.0 |
| 021 | Potsdam I | Schüle, Majna | SPD | 34.4 |
| 022 | Potsdam II | Keller, Daniel | SPD | 42.8 |
| 023 | Teltow-Fläming I | Penquitt, Marcel | SPD | 36.8 |
| 024 | Teltow-Fläming II | Stohn, Erik | SPD | 38.8 |
| 025 | Teltow-Fläming III | Seiler, Ines | SPD | 32.5 |
| 026 | Dahme-Spreewald I | Fischer, Tina | SPD | 36.5 |
| 027 | Dahme-Spreewald II/Oder-Spree I | Scheetz, Ludwig | SPD | 35.7 |
| 028 | Dahme-Spreewald III | Berndt, Hans-Christoph | AfD | 39.3 |
| 029 | Oder-Spree II | Hohloch, Denis | AfD | 40.5 |
| 030 | Oder-Spree III | Muxel, Kathleen | AfD | 36.9 |
| 031 | Märkisch-Oderland I/Oder-Spree IV | Vogelsänger, Jörg | SPD | 32.7 |
| 032 | Märkisch-Oderland II | Pardeik, Erik | AfD | 33.5 |
| 033 | Märkisch-Oderland III | Günther, Lars | AfD | 38.0 |
| 034 | Märkisch-Oderland IV | Janke, Falk Gerd | AfD | 38.8 |
| 035 | Frankfurt (Oder) | Möller, Wilko | AfD | 33.6 |
| 036 | Elbe-Elster I | Drenske, Peter | AfD | 36.3 |
| 037 | Elbe-Elster II | Nothing, Volker | AfD | 43.5 |
| 038 | Oberspreewald-Lausitz I | Bessin, Birgit | AfD | 44.3 |
| 039 | Oberspreewald-Lausitz II/Spree-Neiße IV | Jank, Fabian | AfD | 38.7 |
| 040 | Oberspreewald-Lausitz III/Spree-Neiße III | Münschke, Daniel | AfD | 36.8 |
| 041 | Spree-Neiße I | Kubitzki, Steffen | AfD | 41.5 |
| 042 | Spree-Neiße II | Hanko, Michael | AfD | 46.5 |
| 043 | Cottbus I | Hohm, Jean-Pascal | AfD | 34.6 |
| 044 | Cottbus II | Katzmarek, Lars | SPD | 38.0 |
| List | Freiherr von Lützow, Daniel | AfD | ||
| Kaufner, Dominik | ||||
| Hünich, Lars | ||||
| Filter, Benjamin | ||||
| Oeynhausen, Daniela Rita | ||||
| Crumbach, Robert | BSW | |||
| Gruhn, Jouleen | ||||
| Roth, Stefan | ||||
| Lüders, Niels-Olaf | ||||
| von Ossowski, André | ||||
| Matzies-Köhler, Melanie | ||||
| Peschel, Falk | ||||
| Hornauf, Sven | ||||
| Meyer, Jenny | ||||
| Kutsche, Andreas | ||||
| Reinhard, Simon | ||||
| Dorst, Christian | ||||
| Lehmann, Gunnar | ||||
| Skopec, Oliver | ||||
| Redmann, Jan | CDU | |||
| Augustin, Kirsty | ||||
| Hoffmann, Gordon | ||||
| Genilke, Rainer | ||||
| Bretz, Steeven | ||||
| Ludwig, Saskia | ||||
| Bommert, Frank | ||||
| Schierack, Michael | ||||
| Walter-Mundt, Nicole | ||||
| Eichelbaum, Danny | ||||
| Brüning, Julian | ||||
| Fährmann, Ellen | ||||
| Woidke, Dietmar | SPD | |||
| Lange, Katrin | ||||
| Lüttmann, Björn | ||||
| Poschmann, Katja | ||||
| Roick, Wolfgang | ||||
| Hildebrandt, Elske | ||||
| Mittelstädt, Hanka | ||||
| Wolff, Annemarie | ||||
| Fischer, Kurt | ||||
| Graßmel, Nadine | ||||
| Steinfurth, Matthias | ||||
| Schmidt, Martina Maxi | ||||
| Schönbrunn, Sina | ||||
Electorate
[edit]| Demographic | SPD | AfD | CDU | Grüne | Linke | BVB/FW | FDP | BSW | Other | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total vote | 30.9% | 29.2% | 12.1% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 13.5% | 3.8% | |||
| Sex | ||||||||||||
| Men | 29% | 35% | 12% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 12% | 2% | |||
| Women | 33% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 16% | 4% | |||
| Age | ||||||||||||
| 16–24 years old | 19% | 31% | 9% | 6% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 13% | 11% | |||
| 25–34 years old | 20% | 33% | 11% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 14% | 7% | |||
| 35–44 years old | 24% | 34% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 12% | 4% | |||
| 45–59 years old | 29% | 32% | 13% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 13% | 3% | |||
| 60–69 years old | 35% | 28% | 12% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 15% | 3% | |||
| 70 and older | 49% | 17% | 12% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 16% | -1% | |||
| Employment status | ||||||||||||
| Self-employed | 24% | 34% | 18% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 11% | 2% | |||
| Employees | 31% | 29% | 11% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 12% | 4% | |||
| Workers | 24% | 46% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 12% | 4% | |||
| Pensioners | 40% | 22% | 12% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 18% | 2% | |||
| Education | ||||||||||||
| Simple education | 30% | 37% | 14% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 12% | 3% | |||
| Medium education | 28% | 36% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 14% | 4% | |||
| High education | 34% | 21% | 13% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 13% | 4% | |||
| Source: Infratest dimap[12] | ||||||||||||
Aftermath
[edit]Immediate reaction to the results focused on the successful use of tactical voting to deny AfD first place, and the SPD closing the large gap in pre-election polling as a result. The ARD exit poll found that 75 percent of SPD voters and 59 percent of CDU voters agreed with the statement "I was not convinced by the party, but I'm voting for it to prevent a strong AfD".[13]
This was the worst result for CDU in any state election in the east. Lead candidate Jan Redmann was critical of what he called Woidke's "AfD or me" campaign tactics, arguing that it only served to depress the vote share of the other mainstream parties and did not dissuade anyone from voting for AfD.[14][15] As well, state party leaders criticized CDU Minister-President Michael Kretschmer of Saxony's endorsement of Woidke in the run-up to the election; general secretary Gordon Hoffmann called the endorsement "uncooperative" while Redmann stated it was "completely unhelpful" and disappointed CDU campaigners.[16] The CDU campaign was also damaged by Redmann's arrest for drunk driving in Potsdam in mid-July. He was stopped driving an electric scooter with a blood alcohol content of 1.28 per mille (0.128%), well above the 0.5 legal limit and also past the limit of 1.1 where the offense becomes a crime with a potential prison sentence instead of only a fine. Despite questions about his fitness for office, he remained their lead candidate.[17][18]
This was also the worst result for FDP in any state, federal or European election in the party's history. Its total of 12,462 party-list votes, a share of 0.8%, barely eclipsed the 12,450 invalid party-list votes. FDP federal leader Christian Lindner blamed the poor result on the "tactical situation" and the unpopularity of the federal traffic light coalition, not on lead candidate Zyon Braun or any of the campaign.[19]
The seat distribution was in doubt for part of election night, as Brandenburg has a version of the "basic mandate clause" (Grundmandatsklausel) where all parties winning at least one constituency seat are granted full proportional representation according to their share of party-list votes. Both Green MP Marie Schäffer and BVB-FW leader Péter Vida were competitive in their respective constituencies in Potsdam and Barnim, though neither ultimately won; their parties lost all of their seats as a result. The Left failed to pass the five-percent electoral threshold and also lost its seats, marking the first time the party is not represented in a state parliament in the former East Germany.[20]
Dietmar Woidke lost his constituency seat Spree-Neiße I, which he had represented since 2009, to the AfD candidate Steffen Kubitzki by a margin of seven votes. As all leading candidates are also first on their party's list, Woidke instead fills one of SPD's thirteen list seats.[21]
With more than one-third of seats, AfD has a "blocking minority" (Sperrminorität) that allows it to veto certain parliamentary actions requiring a two-thirds majority, even if it is not in government. In Brandenburg, this includes the selection of constitutional court judges and approval of state constitutional amendments.[20]
On 25 September, the joint leaders of Alliance 90/The Greens, Omid Nouripour and Ricarda Lang, announced their resignations after poor results in the three eastern state elections. After the Greens entered all of them as part of the respective governing coalitions, it was wiped out in Brandenburg and Thuringia, while it received only 5.1% of the party-list vote in Saxony to narrowly retain representation.[22]
Government formation
[edit]The incumbent "Kenya coalition" is no longer possible. With an SPD-CDU coalition one seat short of a majority, and all parties having ruled out working with AfD, the only two mathematically possible majority coalitions are that of SPD and BSW or SPD, BSW and CDU. SPD general secretary Kevin Kühnert confirmed the day after the election that coalition talks would take place with BSW.[23]
In a press conference at SPD headquarters in Berlin later on 23 September, Woidke announced he was inviting both BSW and CDU to begin exploratory talks. BSW leader Robert Crumbach would not commit to participating in government and suggested the SPD-CDU minority government would be workable. CDU leaders, however, ruled out any participation in government in view of their party's poor results. Hoffmann reacted skeptically to the invitation: "To be honest, I don't know what there is to discuss in these talks...we have no mandate to govern."[24][25]
Exploratory talks between SPD and BSW began on 1 October, with a second round occurring the following week. Woidke described good progress but emphasized that "exploratory talks are exploratory talks. The decision is made at the end." The SPD state executive committee scheduled a meeting at the end of the month to potentially consider a recommendation to move forward with negotiations.[26][27] On 28 October, both parties presented an exploratory paper and reached an agreement on the issue of peace, clearing the way for coalition negotiations to begin.[28]
See also
[edit]
Notes
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "A German far-right party wins its first state election". NPR. September 1, 2024. Archived from the original on 1 September 2024.
- ^ "Far-right AfD wins eastern state in Germany's regional election". Al Jazeera. 1 September 2024. Archived from the original on 1 September 2024. Retrieved 2 September 2024.
- ^ "Success of far-right AfD shows east and west Germany are drifting further apart". The Guardian. 1 September 2024. Archived from the original on 1 September 2024. Retrieved 2 September 2024.
- ^ "German far right hails 'historic' election victory in east". BBC News. 1 September 2024. Archived from the original on 2 September 2024. Retrieved 2 September 2024.
- ^ a b Karnitschnig, Matthew (22 September 2024). "Scholz survives as his party edges far-right AfD in Brandenburg election". politico.eu. Archived from the original on 23 September 2024. Retrieved 24 September 2024.
- ^ "Brandenburg: CDU-Regierungschef Kretschmer unterstützt Ministerpräsident Woidke". tagesschau.de (in German). Archived from the original on 18 September 2024.
- ^ "Germany's Scholz escapes far-right win in home state - exit polls". BBC News. 22 September 2024. Archived from the original on 22 September 2024. Retrieved 22 September 2024.
- ^ "BSW: the newly founded party on the left of the political spectrum". deutschland.de. 3 August 2024. Archived from the original on 24 September 2024. Retrieved 24 September 2024.
- ^ Knight, Ben (2 September 2024). "What is Germany's populist BSW party?". dw.com. Archived from the original on 2 September 2024. Retrieved 24 September 2024.
- ^ Kuner, Lisa (24 May 2024). "Populist AfD "sand in the gears" of German climate efforts". cleanenergywire.org. Archived from the original on 17 September 2024. Retrieved 24 September 2024.
- ^ "Der Landeswahlleiter – Brandenburger Wahlergebnisse". brandenburg.de. Archived from the original on 2024-09-26. Retrieved 25 September 2024.
- ^ "Wer wählte wen in Brandenburg?". Infratest dimap. September 22, 2024.
- ^ "Germany's Social Democrats hold off far right in Brandenburg election". Financial Times. 22 September 2024. Archived from the original on 23 September 2024.
- ^ "Redmann (CDU) kritisiert "extreme Polarisierungsstrategie" der SPD". www.inforadio.de (in German). 23 September 2024. Archived from the original on 23 September 2024.
- ^ "Woidke will mit CDU reden – AfD sieht sich als "Partei der Zukunft"". rbb24.de (in German). 2024-09-22. Archived from the original on 23 September 2024. Retrieved 2024-09-22.
- ^ "Brandenburg-Wahl: CDU kritisiert Michael Kretschmer als »unkollegial«". Der Spiegel (in German). 23 September 2024. Archived from the original on 23 September 2024.
- ^ "Brandenburgs CDU-Spitzenkandidat mit 1,3 Promille: Jan Redmann betrunken bei E-Scooter-Fahrt erwischt". Der Tagesspiegel (in German). Archived from the original on 12 July 2024.
- ^ Böger, Frauke (17 July 2024). "CDU-Spitzenkandidat Jan Redmann in Brandenburg: Nach Alkoholfahrt mit E-Scooter tauchen neue Fragen auf". Der Spiegel (in German). Archived from the original on 17 July 2024.
- ^ "FDP erzielt in Brandenburg schlechtestes Zweitstimmen-Ergebnis ihrer Geschichte". www.rbb24.de (in German). 24 September 2024. Archived from the original on 2024-09-23.
- ^ a b "Das bedeuten Sperrminorität, Grundmandatsklausel und Überhangmandat". www.rbb24.de (in German). 23 September 2024. Archived from the original on 22 September 2024.
- ^ Heflik, Katharina (22 September 2024). "Wahl in Brandenburg: Dietmar Woidke verliert Direktmandat an AfD-Politiker". Die Zeit (in German). Archived from the original on 23 September 2024.
- ^ "German Greens leadership quits after series of election blows". Reuters. 25 September 2024. Archived from the original on 2024-09-25.
- ^ "SPD to seek talks with upstart left party BSW – DW – 09/23/2024". Deutsche Welle. 23 September 2024. Archived from the original on 23 September 2024.
- ^ "Brandenburg-Wahl: CDU lehnt Sondierungsgespräche mit SPD ab". Der Spiegel (in German). 2024-09-23. ISSN 2195-1349. Archived from the original on 23 September 2024. Retrieved 2024-09-23.
- ^ Eydlin, Alexander (23 September 2024). "Landtagswahl Brandenburg: Dietmar Woidke kündigt Gespräche mit CDU und BSW an – CDU lehnt ab". Die Zeit (in German). Archived from the original on 23 September 2024.
- ^ "Brandenburger SPD fordert vom BSW Kompromissbereitschaft". rbb24.de (in German). 2024-09-29. Archived from the original on 2024-09-28. Retrieved 2024-10-01.
- ^ "Regierungsbildung: Woidke sieht Fortschritte bei Gesprächen von SPD und BSW". Die Zeit (in German). 11 October 2024.
- ^ "SPD und BSW billigen Koalitionsgespräche". www.rbb24.de (in German). 2024-10-28. Retrieved 2024-10-28.
