2023 Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol provincial elections

2023 Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol
provincial elections
	Provincial election in Trentino
President before election; Maurizio Fugatti; LT–Lega	Elected President ; Maurizio Fugatti; LT–Lega
	Provincial election in South Tyrol
	All 35 seats to the Landtag of South Tyrol
Arno Kompatscher; SVP	Arno Kompatscher; SVP

The 2023 Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol provincial elections took place on 22 October 2023.^[2] It determined two seats for Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol out of 21 in the Conference of Regions and Autonomous Provinces.

Background

Since the 2018 Italian general election, many changes started to occur in the Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol political landscape. For the first time since the 1996 Italian general election, the centre-right coalition managed to defeat the centre-left coalition in Trentino in a general election. Shortly thereafter, the Trentino Tyrolean Autonomist Party (PATT) decided to run separately (German: Blockfrei), leading to the first victory of the Maurizio Fugatti-led centre-right coalition in a provincial election in Trentino since the start of the Second Italian Republic with the 1994 Italian general election.

In South Tyrol, the traditionally dominant-party system led by the South Tyrolean People's Party (SVP) lost its majority in the 2013 Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol provincial elections. In the 2018 general election, the SVP and the Democratic Party of the centre-left coalition lost their majority, forcing SVP to form a coalition with Lega Alto Adige Südtirol due to the ethnischer Proporz [it; de] system (Italian: proporzionale etnica). In the 2019 European Parliament election in Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol, the SVP broke their traditional alliance with the PD and joined forces with the centre-right Forza Italia. Similarly in the 2022 general election SVP and PATT decided to run separated from the centre-left and joined forced with some centre-right autonomist parties like Trentino Project.^[3]

After Brothers of Italy became largest party in Trentino in the 2022 general election, FdI proposed Francesca Gerosa as the new centre-right candidate.^[4] This led to a conflict with PATT, which joined the centre-right coalition in an election for the first time since 2001, which strongly spoke against her.^[5]

Trentino

In Trentino, the president is elected directly by the people; the candidate who gains the most votes is elected president.

Parties and candidates

Political party or alliance		Constituent lists		Previous result		Candidate
Political party or alliance		Constituent lists		Votes (%)	Seats	Candidate
	Centre-right coalition^[6]^[7]		Trentino League (LT)	13.05	5	Maurizio Fugatti
			Brothers of Italy (FdI)	12.35	5
			Fugatti for President	10.73	4
			Trentino Tyrolean Autonomist Party–Popular Autonomists (PATT–AP) (incl. PT)	8.18	3
			La Civica (LC)	4.85	2
			Fassa Association (Fassa)	0.87	1
			Forza Italia (FI)	2.02	0
			Union of the Centre (UDC)	0.59	0
	Democratic Alliance for Trentino^[8]		Democratic Party (PD) (incl. Futura)	13.9	4	Francesco Valduga
			Campobase (CB)	4.0	1
			Greens and Left Alliance (AVS)	1.4	0
			Action (Az)	—	—
			Italia Viva (IV)	—	—
			Fascegn	—	—
			Autonomy House (CA)	—	—
	Five Star Movement (M5S)			7.2	1	Alex Marini
	People's Wave		People's Union	0.8	0	Filippo Degasperi
			Wave	—	—
			My Valley	—	—
	Alliance for Trentino		Us with Divina for President (NcD)	—	—	Sergio Divina
			Popular Alternative (AP)	—	—
			Youth for Divina	—	—
	Sovereign Popular Democracy (DSP)			—	—	Marco Rizzo
	Alternative			—	—	Elena Dardo

Opinion polling

Candidates


Date	Polling firm	Sample size	Fugatti	Valduga	Marini	Degasperi	Divina	Rizzo	Dardo	Others	Lead
Date	Polling firm	Sample size								Others	Lead
2–3 October 2023	BiDiMedia	1,000	42.7	35.9	4.2	4.5	9.0	3.2	0.5	—	6.8
12–17 September 2023	TermometroPolitico	1,000	35	36	5	2	13	6	—	3	1

Political parties


Date	Polling firm	Sample size	Centre-right									Centre-left								M5S	Onda Popolare			Alliance for Trentino				DSP	Alt.	Lead
			Trentino League	PATT–PT–AP	LC	FI	UdC	FdI	Fassa	NM^[a]	Fugatti	PD	Futura^[a]	CB	AVS	Az	IV	CA	Fascegn	M5S	UP	Onda	LMV	TAL^[a]	NcD	AP	GDP	DSP	Alt.

2–3 October 2023	BiDiMedia	1,000	10.6	6.7	5.3	1.3	0.8	13.6	1.1	—	5.6	16.3	—	6.8	3.7	2.0	1.3	4.8	0.7	3.9	1.0	2.5	0.8	—	3.5	3.2	1.3	2.7	0.5	2.7
11–14 July 2023	Winpoll	850	10	11	4	3	1	20	—	2	—	18	1	3	6	3	2	2	—	7	4		—	2	—	—	—	1	—	2

Results

2023 Trentino provincial election results
Candidates		Votes	%	Seats	Parties		Votes	%	Seats	+/−
1 1 7 1 3 1 3 2 1 4 6 5
	Maurizio Fugatti	129,758	51.82	1
						Trentino League	30,347	13.05	5	–8
						Brothers of Italy	28,714	12.35	5	+5
						Fugatti for President	24,953	10.73	4	New
						Trentino Tyrolean Autonomist Party	19,011	8.18	3	–3
						La Civica	11,285	4.85	2	±0
						Forza Italia	4,708	2.02	0	–1
						Fassa Association	2,018	0.87	1	±0
						Union of the Centre	1,362	0.59	0	±0
					Total		122,398	52.64	20	–3
	Francesco Valduga	93,888	37.50	1
						Democratic Party	38,689	16.64	7	+3
						Campobase	19,553	8.41	3	+2
						Autonomy House	9,968	4.29	1	New
						Greens and Left Alliance	7,565	3.25	1	+1
						Fascegn	3,634	1.56	0	±0
						Italia Viva	3,399	1.46	0	New
						Action	3,302	1.42	0	New
					Total		86,110	37.03	12	+5
	Filippo Degasperi	9,533	3.81	1
						Wave	5,864	2.52	0	New
						My Valley	1,204	0.52	0	New
						People's Union	1,088	0.47	0	±0
					Total		8,156	3.51	0	—
	Marco Rizzo	5,651	2.26	0		Sovereign Popular Democracy	5,457	2.35	0	New
	Sergio Divina	5,558	2.22	0
						Popular Alternative	2,261	0.97	0	New
						Us with Divina for President	1,845	0.79	0	New
						Youth for Divina	642	0.28	0	New
					Total		4,748	2.04	0	—
	Alex Marini	4,796	1.92	0		Five Star Movement	4,523	1.95	0	–1
	Elena Dardo	1,205	0.48	0		Alternative	1,121	0.48	0	New

Total candidates		250,389	100	3	Total parties		232,513	100	32	±0
Source: Autonomous Province of Trento

South Tyrol

Parties

Name			Ideology	Leading candidate(s)	2018 result		Current seats
Name			Ideology	Leading candidate(s)	Votes (%)	Seats	Current seats
	SVP	South Tyrolean People's Party	Christian democracy Regionalism	Arno Kompatscher^[2]	41.9%	15 / 35	14 / 35
	TK	Team K	Liberalism Regionalism	Paul Köllensperger Maria Elisabeth Rieder^[9]	15.2%	6 / 35	4 / 35
	Lega	League – United for Alto Adige	Right-wing populism Regionalism	Christian Bianchi^[10]	11.4%	4 / 35	3 / 35
	V–G–V	Greens (incl. SI)	Eco-socialism Regionalism	Brigitte Foppa^[11]	6.8%	3 / 35	3 / 35
	dF	Die Freiheitlichen	National conservatism Separatism	Sabine Zoderer^[12]	6.2%	2 / 35	2 / 35
	STF	South Tyrolean Freedom	National conservatism Separatism	Sven Knoll^[13]	6.2%	2 / 35	2 / 35
	PD	Democratic Party (incl. PSI)	Social democracy	Sandro Repetto^[14]	3.8%	1 / 35	1 / 35
	M5S	Five Star Movement	Populism	Diego Nicolini	2.4%	1 / 35	1 / 35
	FdI	Brothers of Italy	National conservatism	Marco Galateo	1.7%	1 / 35	1 / 35
	FI	Forza Italia (incl. UdC)	Liberal conservatism	Carlo Vettori	1.0%	0 / 35	1 / 35
	FSmW	For South Tyrol with Widmann	Christian democracy Regionalism	Thomas Widmann^[15]	DNE		1 / 35
	Enzian	Enzian	COVID-19 scepticism Regionalism	Josef Unterholzner^[16]	DNE		1 / 35
	Vita	Vita	COVID-19 scepticism Anti-establishment	Renate Holzeisen^[17]	DNE		0 / 35
	JWA	JWA List	Separatism Right-wing populism	Jürgen Wirth Anderlan^[18]	DNE		0 / 35
	CD	Centre-Right	Conservatism	Filippo Maturi^[19]	DNE		0 / 35
	LC	La Civica (incl. Az, IV)	Liberalism	Emanuela Albieri	DNE		0 / 35

Opinion polling

Local regression trend line of poll results


Date	Polling firm	Sample size	SVP	TK	Lega	V-G-V	dF	STF	PD	M5S	FdI	FI	Enzian	FSmW	JWA	Vita	Others	Lead
Date	Polling firm	Sample size															Others	Lead
Sep 2023	Insa	1,000	35	11	4	12	6	5	3	2	7	2	—	5	2	2	4	23
Aug–Sep 2023	Apollis	1,002	32	14	5	11	6	6	4	—	7	2	—	5	3	2	3	18
Jul 2023	Insa	1,000	37	8	7	12	9	7	3	1	7	4	1	—	—	—	4	25
Apr 2023	Demox	–	36.5	12.5	5.5	10.5	6.5	6.5	3.5	2.5	7.5	1.5	—	—	—	—	4	24
Feb–Mar 2023	Apollis	–	40	13	3	14	7	6	4	2	6	—	1	—	—	—	4	26
Early 2023	Komma (leak, incomplete)	–	36.5	TBA	5	TBA	TBA	TBA	TBA	5	8	1.5	TBA	—	—	—	–	N/A
Aug 2022	Apollis	–	37	11	5	17	8	4	4	2	6	—	3	—	—	—	3	20
Jan 2022	Apollis	–	42	8	8	14	6	7	4	1	4	—	1	—	—	—	5	28
Jul 2021	Apollis	1,001	43	9	10	13	4	7	6	2	2	—	0	—	—	—	4	30
21 Oct 2018	2018 provincial election	284,361	41.9	15.2	11.4	6.8	6.2	6.0	3.8	2.4	1.7	1.0	—	—	—	—	4.0	26.7

Results



Party		Votes	%	Seats	+/–
	South Tyrolean People's Party	97,092	34.53	13	−2
	Team K	31,201	11.09	4	−2
	South Tyrolean Freedom	30,583	10.88	4	+2
	Greens	25,445	9.05	3	±0
	Brothers of Italy	16,747	5.96	2	+1
	JWA List	16,596	5.90	2	New
	Die Freiheitlichen	13,836	4.92	2	±0
	Democratic Party	9,707	3.45	1	±0
	For South Tyrol with Widmann	9,646	3.43	1	±0
	League–United for Alto Adige	8,541	3.04	1	−3
	La Civica	7,301	2.60	1	New
	Vita	7,222	2.57	1	New
	Five Star Movement	2,086	0.74	–	−1
	Enzian	1,990	0.71	–	New
	Forza Italia	1,625	0.58	–	±0
	Centre-Right	1,601	0.57	–	New
Total		281,219	100.00	35	–

Valid votes		281,219	96.87
Invalid/blank votes		9,080	3.13
Total votes		290,299	100.00
Registered voters/turnout		429,841	67.54
Source: Official Results

Popular vote

SVP			34.53%
TK			11.09%
STF			10.88%
Grüne			9.05%
FdI			5.96%
JWA			5.90%
dF			4.92%
PD			3.45%
Widmann			3.43%
Lega			3.04%
Civica			2.60%
Vita			2.57%
M5S			0.74%
Enzian			0.71%
FI			0.58%
CD			0.57%

References

^ The swing comes from the combined result of the Centre-right coalition and PATT in the 2018 provincial election.
^ ^a ^b "SVP-Leitung ernennt Arno Kompatscher zum Spitzenkandidaten". Südtirol News (in German). 28 February 2023. Retrieved 6 March 2023.
^ "Progetto Trentino e le elezioni, appoggio al Patt e alla Svp, Grisenti: «L'unica scelta per l'autonomia»". ladige.it (in Italian). 19 August 2022. Retrieved 6 March 2023.
^ "Fratelli d'Italia sfida Fugatti e lancia Francesca Gerosa come candidata presidente della Provincia". ladige.it (in Italian). 12 January 2023. Retrieved 6 March 2023.
^ "Accordo Patt-Lega: c'è la fumata bianca. Marchiori: "Gerosa presidente con Fdi? Mai presa in considerazione, in quel caso non ci sarebbe stata alleanza"". il Dolomiti (in Italian). 1 March 2023. Retrieved 6 March 2023.
^ "Ufficial data of the election in the Province of Trento". Provincia di trento (in Italian). 22 October 2023. Retrieved 6 March 2023.
^ "In Trentino il centrodestra si compatta: anche Fratelli d'Italia sosterrà Fugatti presidente". Alto Adige (in Italian). 28 July 2023. Retrieved 30 July 2023.
^ "Dagli autonomisti alla sinistra, al tavolo di coalizione ci sono tutti (ma non si parla di nomi)". il Dolomiti (in Italian). 12 January 2023. Retrieved 6 March 2023.
^ "Das Spitzenduo". Neue Südtiroler Tageszeitung (in German). 16 January 2023.
^ "Bianchi wird Lega-Spitzenkandidat". Neue Südtiroler Tageszeitung (in German). August 2023.
^ "Schluss mit einem Südtirol im Standby". V–G–V (in German). 4 April 2023.
^ "Freiheitliche: Pläne für die Landtagswahlen". RaiNews (in German). 5 February 2023.
^ "Sven Knoll Landeshauptmann-Kandidat der Süd-Tiroler Freiheit". STF (in German). 16 May 2023.
^ "„Lega wird nicht wahrgenommen"". Neue Südtiroler Tageszeitung (in German). 11 April 2023.
^ "Jetzt spricht Thomas Widmann: Sein Plan für die Landtagswahl". Südtirol Online (in German). 26 July 2023.
^ "Die No-Vax-Fraktion". Neue Südtiroler Tageszeitung (in German). 21 January 2023.
^ "Sie will Südtirols Landeshauptfrau werden". Unsertirol.com (in German). 19 June 2023.
^ "Wirth Anderlan tritt mit eigener Liste zur Wahl an: "Enzian wollte mich nicht"". RaiNews (in German). 18 July 2023.
^ "Der ehemalige Lega-Mann Maturi präsentiert neue Partei". RaiNews (in German). 2 March 2023.

^ ^a ^b ^c withdrew

[1] The swing comes from the combined result of the Centre-right coalition and PATT in the 2018 provincial election.

[Date-2] "SVP-Leitung ernennt Arno Kompatscher zum Spitzenkandidaten". Südtirol News (in German). 28 February 2023. Retrieved 6 March 2023.

[3] "Progetto Trentino e le elezioni, appoggio al Patt e alla Svp, Grisenti: «L'unica scelta per l'autonomia»". ladige.it (in Italian). 19 August 2022. Retrieved 6 March 2023.

[4] "Fratelli d'Italia sfida Fugatti e lancia Francesca Gerosa come candidata presidente della Provincia". ladige.it (in Italian). 12 January 2023. Retrieved 6 March 2023.

[5] "Accordo Patt-Lega: c'è la fumata bianca. Marchiori: "Gerosa presidente con Fdi? Mai presa in considerazione, in quel caso non ci sarebbe stata alleanza"". il Dolomiti (in Italian). 1 March 2023. Retrieved 6 March 2023.

[6] "Ufficial data of the election in the Province of Trento". Provincia di trento (in Italian). 22 October 2023. Retrieved 6 March 2023.

[7] "In Trentino il centrodestra si compatta: anche Fratelli d'Italia sosterrà Fugatti presidente". Alto Adige (in Italian). 28 July 2023. Retrieved 30 July 2023.

[8] "Dagli autonomisti alla sinistra, al tavolo di coalizione ci sono tutti (ma non si parla di nomi)". il Dolomiti (in Italian). 12 January 2023. Retrieved 6 March 2023.

[10] "Das Spitzenduo". Neue Südtiroler Tageszeitung (in German). 16 January 2023.

[11] "Bianchi wird Lega-Spitzenkandidat". Neue Südtiroler Tageszeitung (in German). August 2023.

[12] "Schluss mit einem Südtirol im Standby". V–G–V (in German). 4 April 2023.

[13] "Freiheitliche: Pläne für die Landtagswahlen". RaiNews (in German). 5 February 2023.

[14] "Sven Knoll Landeshauptmann-Kandidat der Süd-Tiroler Freiheit". STF (in German). 16 May 2023.

[15] "„Lega wird nicht wahrgenommen"". Neue Südtiroler Tageszeitung (in German). 11 April 2023.

[16] "Jetzt spricht Thomas Widmann: Sein Plan für die Landtagswahl". Südtirol Online (in German). 26 July 2023.

[17] "Die No-Vax-Fraktion". Neue Südtiroler Tageszeitung (in German). 21 January 2023.

[18] "Sie will Südtirols Landeshauptfrau werden". Unsertirol.com (in German). 19 June 2023.

[19] "Wirth Anderlan tritt mit eigener Liste zur Wahl an: "Enzian wollte mich nicht"". RaiNews (in German). 18 July 2023.

[20] "Der ehemalige Lega-Mann Maturi präsentiert neue Partei". RaiNews (in German). 2 March 2023.

[wd-9] withdrew

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