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2023 Aston by-election

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This article is about the 2023 by-election. For 2001 by-election in the same electorate, see 2001 Aston by-election.

2023 Aston by-election
← 2022 1 April 2023 Next →
Division of Aston (Victoria) in the House of Representatives
Registered110,331
Turnout94,429 (85.6%)
  First party Second party Third party
 
Candidate Mary Doyle Roshena Campbell Angelica Di Camillo
Party Labor Liberal Greens
Popular vote 37,318 35,680 9,256
Percentage 40.9% 39.1% 10.1%
Swing Increase 8.3 Decrease 4.0 Decrease 1.9
2PP 53.6% 46.4%
2PP swing Increase 6.4 Decrease 6.4
Results of the by-election by suburb.
MP before election

Alan Tudge
Liberal

Elected MP

Mary Doyle
Labor

The 2023 Aston by-election was held on 1 April 2023 to elect the next member of the Australian House of Representatives in the electorate of Aston in Victoria. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Liberal MP Alan Tudge, on 17 February 2023.[1]

The ABC's Antony Green called Aston for Labor at 8:16 PM AEDT, for the Labor candidate Mary Doyle.[2] The result was considered a historic upset by the media, as Aston had been regarded as a safe seat for the Liberals, and had been held by the party since the 1990 federal election.[3] It marked the first time in over 102 years that a government has won a seat from the opposition in a by-election.

Background

[edit]
Further information: Electoral results for the Division of Aston

The Division of Aston had been held by the Liberal party since the 1990 Australian federal election. In 2010, with the retirement of Chris Pearce, Alan Tudge won the division for the Liberals at the 2010 Australian federal election.[4] The division remained safe during Tudge's tenure, including at the 2019 federal election.

In November 2020, a Four Corners episode revealed that Tudge was engaged in an extramarital affair with one of his staffers, Rachelle Miller.[5] In December 2021, Tudge announced he would be standing aside as the Minister for Education after Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced an investigation into allegations made by Miller that Tudge had abused her in their relationship.[5] Miller received A$650,000 from the government as a settlement.[6] In April 2022, Morrison stated that Tudge "technically" was still part of the cabinet, however in May acting education minister Stuart Robert stated he had been working in Tudge's role for "12 months", six months before Tudge had announced he would stand aside.[7][8]

2022 election result

[edit]
See also: Results of the 2022 Australian federal election in Victoria § Aston

During the campaign for the 2022 federal election, Tudge stated he would happily return to being a minister if the coalition government was re-elected.[9] The seat became marginal at the 2022 election; the 2PP swing to Labor in Aston was 7.32%, significantly higher than the state-wide swing to Labor of 1.69%.[10][11] His Labor opponent was former union organiser Mary Doyle.[12] The Greens also contested the election and had a 3.2% increase in primary vote from the previous 2019 election. Other parties that contested Aston at the 2022 election were United Australia Party, One Nation, Liberal Democrats and TNL, and each of them achieved less than 10% of the primary vote.[13]

Two-party-preferred vote in Aston, 1996–2022
Election 1996 1998 2001 (b/e) 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022
  Liberal 55.59% 54.24% 50.58% 56.17% 63.15% 55.05% 51.76% 58.20% 58.59% 60.13% 52.81%
  Labor 44.41% 45.76% 49.42% 43.87% 36.85% 44.05% 48.24% 42.80% 42.41% 39.87% 47.19%
Government L/NP L/NP L/NP L/NP L/NP ALP ALP L/NP L/NP L/NP ALP

As minister for Human Services in 2016–2017, Tudge was involved in setting up the Robodebt scheme, later found to have been illegal.[14] The Albanese government set up a Royal Commission into the Robodebt scheme after taking office.[14] Tudge appeared before the Royal Commission into the Robodebt Scheme on 1 February 2023 and denied he was responsible for seeking legal advice about the scheme's legality.[14] A week later, on 9 February 2023, Tudge announced his resignation as the member for Aston.[15]

The by-election was quickly labelled as key for the Coalition who were in opposition at the federal level and had performed poorly in recent Victorian elections.[16][17] As of the date of this election, the last time a government had won a seat from the Opposition at a by-election was the Kalgoorlie by-election in 1920.[18]

Candidate selections

[edit]

On 17 February 2023, the ALP selected Mary Doyle as its candidate for the by-election. She had been the party's candidate against Tudge at the 2022 federal election and won preselection unopposed.[19]

On 21 February 2023, the Liberal Party selected Roshena Campbell as its candidate for the by-election. She was selected by the state party's administration committee, a decision taken to avoid the lengthy process of a members' ballot given the relatively short timeframe of the election.[20] If she was elected, Campbell would have been the first female Indian-Australian MP from the Liberal Party.[21] Other candidates for Liberal Party preselection included former state Liberal MP Cathrine Burnett-Wake, former Knox City mayor Emanuele Cicchiello, and oncologist and writer Ranjana Srivastava, who was endorsed by former premier of Victoria Jeff Kennett and former Minister for Health and Aged Care Greg Hunt.[20][22][23][24] News of Tudge's resignation had also prompted speculation that former treasurer Josh Frydenberg, who lost his seat of Kooyong at the 2022 election, would seek the Liberal Party endorsement for the by-election. However, Frydenberg declined to seek re-election, having since moved to the private sector.[10][25] Frydenberg endorsed Roshena Campbell.[26]

At the time of their preselections, neither Campbell nor Doyle lived in the seat of Aston.[27] Campbell lived in the inner-city suburb of Brunswick. She rented a property in the electorate and had promised to move to the electorate if elected.[28] Doyle lived in the suburb of Mitcham, located in the nearby Deakin electorate.[29]

The Australian Greens selected environmental engineer Angelica Di Camillo who had stood for the Greens in Rowville for the 2022 Victorian state election.[30] She grew up in Rowville.[31]

Key dates

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Key dates in relation to the by-election are:[32][33]

  • 27 February 2023 – Issue of writ
  • 6 March 2023 – Close of electoral rolls
  • 9 March 2023 – Close of nominations
  • 10 March 2023 – Declaration of nominations
  • 20 March 2023 – Start of early voting
  • 29 March 2023 – Postal vote applications close
  • 1 April 2023 – Polling day (8am to 6pm)
  • 6 April 2023 – Declaration of result[34]
  • 14 April 2023 – Last day for receipt of postal votes
  • 7 June 2023 – Last day for return of writs

Candidates

[edit]
Party Candidate Background
  Fusion Owen Miller Tech entrepreneur, artificial intelligence advocate[35]
  Liberal Roshena Campbell Barrister and City of Melbourne councillor[20]
  Greens Angelica Di Camillo Environmental engineer and pilates instructor, Rowville candidate in the 2022 state election[36]
  Labor Mary Doyle Union organiser, Aston candidate in the 2022 federal election[37]
  Independent Maya Tesa Businesswoman, Liberal Democratic candidate for North-Eastern Metropolitan in the 2022 state election and Jagajaga in the 2022 federal election; endorsed by the LDP[38][39]

One Nation chose not to contest the by-election, with party leader Pauline Hanson stating she had made a "strategic decision not to take votes away from the Coalition".[40]

Simon Holmes à Court, founder of Climate 200, had expressed interest in funding a community-based teal independent if one were to run.[41]

The Conservative Party, an unregistered party, endorsed volunteer community radio presenter Mark Gardner as a candidate but he did not end up contesting.[42]

Campaign

[edit]
Election posters at a polling place, including one by the Liberals on the Labor government's cuts to local road funding
Labor's election poster campaigning on Peter Dutton's unpopularity
A polling place for the by-election at Bayswater West Primary School

The Liberal Party campaigned on the rising cost of living and the withdrawal of funding to local road and transport projects under the new Albanese Labor government.[43] These projects included the Dorset Road extension, Wellington Road duplication, Napoleon Road duplication and the proposed Rowville railway line (also known as Monash Rail).[44][45]

Labor campaigned on Liberal leader Peter Dutton's unpopularity, and the unpopularity of the Liberal Party generally. Labor also highlighted Dutton's rhetoric against China in messaging to Chinese Australians.[28] The Labor Party also highlighted the fact that Campbell did not live in the outer eastern suburbs of Melbourne where the seat is located.

A week before the election, the state Liberal Party attracted controversy when one of its state MPs, Moira Deeming, attended an anti-transgender protest which was also attended by neo-Nazis.[46] The parliamentary leader of the state Liberal Party, John Pesutto, moved to expel Deeming from the party, but was unsuccessful.[47] Dutton was concerned that these events from the state party could impact the party's results at the by-election.[48][49]

Results

[edit]
2023 Aston by-election [50]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labor Mary Doyle 37,318 40.87 +8.32
Liberal Roshena Campbell 35,680 39.07 –3.98
Greens Angelica Di Camillo 9,256 10.14 –1.94
Independent Maya Tesa 6,426 7.04 +7.04
Fusion Owen Miller 2,637 2.89 +2.89
Total formal votes 91,317 96.70 −0.03
Informal votes 3,112 3.30 +0.03
Turnout 94,429 85.64 −6.86
Two-party-preferred result
Labor Mary Doyle 48,915 53.57 +6.38
Liberal Roshena Campbell 42,402 46.43 –6.38
Labor gain from Liberal Swing +6.38

Aftermath

[edit]

The loss of Aston reduced the Liberal party to holding three out of the 26 federal seats in Melbourne, and six across the whole of Victoria. Labor increased their numbers to holding 25 seats across Victoria.[51]

Figures within and associated with the Coalition gave several reasons for the Liberal Party's unexpected loss. Federal opposition leader Peter Dutton stated he accepted responsibility for the Liberal's loss in Aston, but stated the party's fundamental principles would not change.[51] David Littleproud, leader of the National Party of Australia, stated that "character assassination" of Dutton had hurt the Liberal's campaign.[51] Littleproud also stated the Victorian Liberal Party were doing "everything they could locally there to trash their own brand" by fighting internally on whether to expel Moira Deeming.[51] Victorian Liberal leader John Pesutto disputed this, stating "It was a federal by-election, with local issues in it, and none of the issues surrounding the Victorian parliamentary party were being raised".[52] Former Liberal prime minister Malcolm Turnbull stated that the by-election loss was caused by the federal Liberal party moving too far to the right.[52] Speculation was raised that Dutton would be challenged for the leadership of the party, however that did not occur.[52] In December 2023, the Liberals announced they had preselected former mayor of the City of Knox Manny Cicchiello to be their candidate at the next Australian federal election.[53]

Premier of Victoria Daniel Andrews stated that the Liberal party was "a nasty, bigoted outfit and people have worked them out, and that might be why they keep losing".[52] Prime minister Anthony Albanese cited Dutton's strategy of negativity as a reason for the Liberal party's loss.[52]

See also

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References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Aston by-election". Australian Parliament House. 17 February 2023.
  2. ^ Yu, Andi (1 April 2023). "Labor snatches historic victory in Aston by-election in Melbourne's outer east". ABC News.
  3. ^ Smethurst, Annika; Galloway, Anthony; Cunningham, Melissa (1 April 2023). "Labor secures historic upset in Aston, 'worst byelection result in 100 years' for Liberals". The Age.
  4. ^ Commission, Australian Electoral. "House of Representatives Division First Preferences". results.aec.gov.au. Retrieved 17 October 2024.
  5. ^ a b Remeikis, Amy (2 December 2021). "Alan Tudge stands aside after Rachelle Miller alleges their affair was at times 'abusive'". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 17 October 2024.
  6. ^ Butler, Josh (7 September 2022). "PM calls on Alan Tudge and Michaelia Cash to explain circumstances leading to Rachelle Miller settlement". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 18 October 2024.
  7. ^ Hurst, Daniel; Butler, Josh (11 April 2022). "Alan Tudge 'technically' still member of cabinet, Scott Morrison says". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 18 October 2024.
  8. ^ Karp, Paul (5 May 2022). "Stuart Robert says he does not know where Alan Tudge is and has been doing his job 'for almost 12 months'". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 18 October 2024.
  9. ^ Butler, Josh (10 May 2022). "Alan Tudge says he is willing to return to frontbench after election in first interview in months". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 18 October 2024.
  10. ^ a b Speers, David; Worthington, Brett (9 February 2023). "Liberal Alan Tudge quits politics, Josh Frydenberg rules out comeback". ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 9 February 2023.
  11. ^ "First preferences by party - VIC". Tally Room. Australian Electoral Commission. 27 May 2022. Retrieved 27 May 2022.
  12. ^ Kolovos, Benita; Lee, Jane (30 March 2023). "Aston byelection: voters in the former Liberal stronghold hold Peter Dutton's future in their hands". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 22 October 2024.
  13. ^ "2022 Federal Election: Aston, VIC". AEC Tally Room. Australian Electoral Commission. 17 June 2022. Retrieved 13 February 2023.
  14. ^ a b c Henriques-Gomes, Luke (1 February 2023). "Alan Tudge denies he was responsible for department's failure to check legality of robodebt, royal commission hears". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 22 October 2024.
  15. ^ Murphy, Katharine (9 February 2023). "Alan Tudge quits politics sparking byelection in former Liberal minister's Victorian seat". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 18 October 2024.
  16. ^ Murphy, Katharine (9 February 2023). "Alan Tudge quits politics sparking byelection in former Liberal minister's Victorian seat". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 9 February 2023.
  17. ^ Shanahan, Dennis (9 February 2023). "Alan Tudge exit makes Aston a must-win by-election for Peter Dutton". The Australian. News Corp Australia. Archived from the original on 9 February 2023. Retrieved 9 February 2023.
  18. ^ Martino, Matt (27 July 2018). "Fact check: Has a government not won a seat from an opposition at a by-election in 100 years?". ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 14 March 2023.
  19. ^ Osborne, Paul (17 February 2023). "Labor preselects Mary Doyle as candidate for Aston by-election". The New Daily. Retrieved 13 March 2023.
  20. ^ a b c Karp, Paul; Kolovos, Benita (21 February 2023). "Aston byelection: barrister Roshena Campbell selected as Liberal candidate". The Guardian.
  21. ^ Smethurst, Annika (3 March 2023). "Roshena Campbell will make history for the Liberal Party, win or lose". The Age. Retrieved 7 March 2023.
  22. ^ Sakall, Paul (15 February 2023). "Frydenberg chooses candidate to back in Aston byelection". smh.com.au. Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 15 February 2023.
  23. ^ McCubbing, Gus (13 February 2023). "Former state MP seeks preselection in 'new Liberal heartland'". Australian Financial Review. Nine Entertainment Co. Retrieved 13 February 2023.
  24. ^ Kolovos, Benita (16 February 2023). "Former Liberal MPs back rival candidates Roshena Campbell and Ranjana Srivastava in Aston preselection". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 18 October 2024.
  25. ^ Massola, James; Sakkal, Paul (9 February 2023). "Alan Tudge quits politics, triggering byelection in Aston". The Sydney Morning Herald. Nine Entertainment Co. Retrieved 9 February 2023.
  26. ^ Kolovos, Benita (16 February 2023). "Former Liberal MPs back rival candidates Roshena Campbell and Ranjana Srivastava in Aston preselection". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 18 October 2024.
  27. ^ Ransley, Ellen (22 February 2023). "Awkward detail in fight for Alan Tudge's seat as candidates fight over addresses". News.com.au. Retrieved 13 March 2023.
  28. ^ a b Willingham, Richard (1 April 2023). "As Labor battles history and voter apathy in Aston, a Liberal loss would spell disaster". ABC News. Retrieved 1 April 2023.
  29. ^ Kolovos, Benita; Lee, Jane (30 March 2023). "Aston byelection: voters in the former Liberal stronghold hold Peter Dutton's future in their hands". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 1 April 2023. Retrieved 1 April 2023.
  30. ^ Hui, Jin (15 March 2023). "Greens candidate for Aston Angelica Di Camillo wants to build on strong 2022 results". Ferntree Gully Star Mail. Retrieved 3 April 2023.
  31. ^ Verhoeven, Luke (24 March 2023). "Aston By-Election Breakdown". Farago, University of Melbourne. Retrieved 22 October 2024.
  32. ^ "By-election for Aston". aph.gov.au. 20 February 2023.
  33. ^ "2023 Aston by-election". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 20 February 2023.
  34. ^ Australian Electoral Commission [@AusElectoralCom] (6 April 2023). "The #Aston federal by-election has been formally declared this morning with Mary Doyle (ALP) officially elected as the new member in @AboutTheHouse" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  35. ^ "Fusion Party announces tech entrepreneur and AI advocate Owen Miller as candidate for 2023 Aston by-election". Fusion Party. 28 February 2023.
  36. ^ McLeod, Catie (4 March 2023). "Anthony Albanese says odds are against Labor in Aston by-election". The Australian. The Greens announced Angelica Di Camillo as their candidate for the Aston by-election on Saturday
  37. ^ Massola, James; Sakkal, Paul; Smethurst, Annika (16 February 2023). "Mary Doyle to be Labor's candidate in Tudge seat of Aston". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 17 February 2023.
  38. ^ McKenzie, Parker (1 March 2023). "Independent Libertarian candidate announces nomination for Aston by-election". StarMail.
  39. ^ "We've endorsed Libertarian Independent Maya Tesa for today's Aston by-election". Twitter. Liberal Democrats Australia.
  40. ^ Smethurst, Annika; Sakkal, Paul (10 March 2023). "Pauline Hanson out of Aston byelection to help Libs, Labor launches attack ads". The Age.
  41. ^ Osborne, Paul; Giannini, Dominic (17 February 2023). "Labor's 'suburban mum' first off in big by-election bid". Leader Community Newspapers. Melbourne, Victoria.
  42. ^ "Battle for Aston: Roshena Campbell embodies Dutton's conservative vision". The Age. 22 February 2023.
  43. ^ Speers, David (30 March 2023). "The Liberals may be expecting a narrow win in Aston, but they're far more nervous than Labor about what's at stake". ABC News. Retrieved 2 April 2023.
  44. ^ "Aston Electorate: By-election". Parliament of Australia. 30 March 2023. Retrieved 2 April 2023.
  45. ^ "Monash Rail". Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts. Retrieved 2 April 2023.
  46. ^ Kolovos, Benita; Lee, Jane (30 March 2023). "Aston byelection: voters in the former Liberal stronghold hold Peter Dutton's future in their hands". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 17 October 2024.
  47. ^ Kolovos, Benita (27 March 2023). "Moira Deeming avoids being expelled by Victorian Liberal party room after leader buckles to pressure". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 17 October 2024.
  48. ^ McIlroy, Tom (31 March 2023). "'Three would be cataclysmic': Why Aston is about more than one seat". Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 2 April 2023.
  49. ^ Ilanbey, Sumeyya; Smethurst, Annika (28 March 2023). "Dutton warns his federal MPs to remain united, in direct swipe at Victorian Liberals". The Age. Retrieved 2 April 2023.
  50. ^ "Aston, VIC". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 8 May 2023.
  51. ^ a b c d "Peter Dutton says he 'accepts responsibility' for devastating Aston by-election defeat". ABC News. 1 April 2023. Retrieved 22 October 2024.
  52. ^ a b c d e "'Disastrous' Liberal by-election defeat signals 'monumental shift' among voters, experts say". ABC News. 2 April 2023. Retrieved 22 October 2024.
  53. ^ Hevesi, Bryant (16 December 2023). "Manny Cicchiello preselected as Liberal Party's Aston candidate for federal poll after Labor's historic by-election win". Sky News Australia. Retrieved 22 October 2024.
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