2022 stock market decline
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The 2022 stock market decline was a short-lived bear market that impacted several equity indices around the world. While initially assuming the 2021 inflation surge to be “temporary” or “transitory,” many of the world’s central banks left policy rates unchanged near zero in 2021. When inflation proved to be much higher and stickier than originally expected, central banks rapidly tightened policy in 2022, hiking interest rates to their highest nominal levels since the 2000s. Many Wall Street investors, fearful of a recession, began selling off their securities holdings, causing a short-lived bear market. Most equity indices bottomed between late 2022 and early 2023, as investors began to bet on a soft landing. Economic data and corporate earnings had continued to come in strong during this period, and year-over-year inflation rates in the United States & Western Europe peaked in the summer & autumn of 2022. In 2023, stock markets rebounded and reached new records, driven by further disinflationary progress, central banks pivoting to dovishness and signaling lower interest rates ahead, and the AI boom driving a speculative mania into technology stocks.
In the United States, the bear market began on January 3, 2022 and ended on October 22, 2022; with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Nasdaq Composite, and the S&P 500 entered the bull market in November 2022, May 2023, and June 2023 respectively.[1] In Japan, the Nikkei 225 reached its highest level since 1990, in May 2023.[2] While 2022 was the worst year for Wall Street since 2008,[3] 2024 had at least 36 days of closing at record-breaking highs.[4]
Causes
[edit]The global financial instability in 2022 was a holdover from the COVID-19 pandemic, as investors attempted to determine the long-term effects of the pandemic on the global economy.[5] Global indices began to decline after January 2022. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine escalated the decline as fears of energy disruption became apparent.[6][needs update]
Global markets were also impacted by fears of economic recession. On June 13, 2022, the MSCI ACWI index, which tracks stock prices from both emerging and developed markets, officially slipped into a bear market, falling 21% from a mid-November peak.[7][needs update]
Effects
[edit]United States
[edit]The S&P 500 index peaked at 4,796 on its January 3 close and had since been on a downward trend for several months[until when?]. In response to the inflation surge, the Federal Reserve rapidly raised interest rates which further led to a decline in investor confidence.[citation needed] Markets favor low interest rate environments because they are conducive to future growth: when interest rates are low, companies can increase spending, which leads to increased stock prices.[citation needed] As the United States gross domestic product shrank in the first quarter of 2022, fears of an economic recession contributed to the decline in equity prices.[8] The gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2022, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.[9] By June 16, 2022, the S&P had fallen 23.55% from 4,796 to 3,666, though it was unknown if the index would plunge below the level. The DJIA fell 18.78% since its January 4 high, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 33.70% from its November 19 high.[10][11] On September 13, 2022, the S&P 500 experienced its largest single-day drop since June 2020.[12] The single day drop was 4.32%.[13]
According to Morningstar, Inc., environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) investment funds in the United States saw capital inflows of $3.1 billion in 2022 while non-ESG investment funds saw capital outflows of $370 billion.[14][relevant?]
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Nasdaq Composite, and the S&P 500 entered the bull market in November 2022, May 2023, and June 2023 respectively.[1] While 2022 was the worst year for Wall Street since 2008,[3] 2024 saw at least 36 days of closing at record-breaking highs.[4]
China
[edit]Concerns over the economic effects of China's Zero-COVID strategy and its regulatory crackdown on companies like Ant Group have led to a decline in Chinese stock prices.[citation needed] In June 2022, the Alibaba Group's (NYSE: BABA) share price declined from a peak of over US$300 in mid-2020 to below US$100.[15][better source needed]
Emerging markets
[edit]Emerging markets were hit by the worst sell-off in decades. The JPMorgan EMBI Global Diversified delivered returns of -15% in 2022. During the same period, ETFs that provide exposure to emerging markets such as VWO, IEMG, and EEM are all down more than 15% since the start of 2022.[16][needs update]
Cryptocurrency
[edit]As part of the global decline in most risky assets, the price of Bitcoin fell 59% during the same time period, and it declined 72% from its November 8th all-time high. The price of cryptocurrencies like the aforementioned Bitcoin and Ethereum plunged in June 2022 (the former of which suffered another decline) as investors moved their money out of risky assets.[17][needs update]
References
[edit]- ^ a b "The S&P 500 is in a bull market. Here's what that means and how long the bull might run". The Associated Press. June 8, 2023.
- ^ "Japan's Nikkei hits 33-year high on weak yen, US optimism". Al Jazeera. May 29, 2023.
- ^ a b Jesse Pound; Samantha Subin (December 30, 2022). "Stocks fall to end Wall Street's worst year since 2008, S&P 500 finishes 2022 down nearly 20%". CNBC.
- ^ a b Hyman, Julie (2024-07-09). "Stock market close: S&P 500 reaches 36th record high in 2024". Yahoo Finance. Retrieved 2024-07-31.
- ^ Vega, Nicolas (2022-06-14). "Stocks have officially entered bear market territory—here's what that means and what you should do". CNBC. Retrieved 2022-06-29.
- ^ Toews, Phillip (March 14, 2022). "Opinion: Ukraine War Likely Has Triggered Lasting Bear Market". Barrons. Retrieved 2022-06-29.
- ^ Maki, Sydney (2022-06-13). "Global Stocks Dive Into Bear Market as Risk Appetite Evaporates". Bloomberg. Retrieved 2022-07-04.
- ^ Simonetti, Isabella (2022-06-30). "After Worst Start in 50 Years, Some See More Pain Ahead for Stock Market". The New York Times. Retrieved 2022-06-30.
- ^ "Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits (Revised), First Quarter 2022 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)". www.bea.gov. Retrieved 2022-07-03.
- ^ Schnipper, Scott (2022-06-13). "The S&P 500 is now in an official bear market, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices". CNBC. Retrieved 2022-06-23.
- ^ Gura, David (2022-06-13). "Stocks sink, sending the S&P 500 to a bear market". NPR. Retrieved 2022-06-23.
- ^ Rennison, Joe (September 13, 2022). "Markets Plunge as Inflation Data Undercuts Wall Street's Optimism". The New York Times. Retrieved September 13, 2022.
- ^ Halpert, Madeline (September 13, 2022). "S&P 500 Faces Biggest Drop This Year As Inflation Remains Stubbornly High". Forbes.
- ^ Shifflett, Shane (March 7, 2023). "Sustainable Funds Dodged Outflows in 2022 Market Rout". The Wall Street Journal. News Corp. Retrieved April 27, 2023.
- ^ Calhoun, George (June 1, 2022). "Opinion: Alibaba Update: It's Down 75%. Is It Still A Value Play?". Forbes. Retrieved 2022-06-23.
- ^ Jonathan, Wheatley (28 May 2022). "Emerging Markets hit by worst sell-off in decades". Financial Times. Retrieved 2022-06-30.
- ^ Vigna, Corrie Driebusch and Paul (2022-06-18). "The Crypto Party Is Over". Wall Street Journal. ISSN 0099-9660. Retrieved 2022-06-23.