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2021 Mexican legislative election

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2021 Mexican legislative election
Mexico
← 2018 6 June 2021 2024 →
All 500 seats in the Chamber of Deputies
251 seats needed for a majority
Turnout52.7%[1]
Party Leader Vote % Seats +/–
Juntos Hacemos Historia (278 seats)
MORENA Mario Martín Delgado 35.30 198 +7
PVEM Karen Castrejón Trujillo 5.63 43 +27
PT Alberto Anaya 3.36 37 −24
Va por México (199 seats)
PAN Marko Cortés Mendoza 18.89 114 +33
PRI Alejandro Moreno Cárdenas 18.36 70 +25
PRD Ángel Ávila Romero 3.78 15 −6
Other party (23 seats)
MC Clemente Castañeda 7.27 23 −4
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
Results by constituency
Politics of Mexico
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Legislative elections were held in Mexico on 6 June 2021. Voters elected 500 deputies (300 in single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post and 200 by proportional representation) to sit in the Chamber of Deputies for the 65th Congress. These elections took place concurrently with the country's state elections.

On 5 December 2020 the National Action Party, the Institutional Revolutionary Party and the Party of the Democratic Revolution announced an electoral alliance, Va por México ("Go For Mexico").[2][3] Morena, the Labour Party and the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico formed the Juntos Hacemos Historia (″Together we make history″) coalition.[4] Both alliances were approved by the National Electoral Institute (INE).[5]

The INE issued a statement on 3 February 2021 saying that it would not be prudent to postpone the election because of the COVID-19 pandemic and doing so could even trigger a constitutional crisis by delaying the opening of the 65th Congress. INE board president Lorenzo Córdova Vianello noted the successful elections in Hidalgo and Coahuila in October 2020.[6]

On 13 April 2021 the INE cancelled the registrations of Manuel Guillermo Chapman (Morena), Ana Elizabeth Ayala Leyva, (Juntos Haremos Historia), and Raúl Tadeo Nava (Labor Party) for failure to certify their lack of involvement in gender violence.[7] On 3 June, the INE warned about possible sanctions on Catholic bishops, in particular Juan Sandoval Íñiguez, for their interference in the elections.[8]

The elections were Mexico's largest in history and were tainted by several political assassinations and the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico.[9][10]

Parties

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A woman inserting her vote into a ballot box, Mexico City, 6 June 2021

Two alliances took part: Juntos Hacemos Historia and Va por México.

Alliance Parties
Juntos Hacemos Historia Morena
Labor Party (PT)
Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM)
Va por México National Action Party (PAN)
Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI)
Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD)

Two alliances were formed for the 2021 legislative election. Both are partial alliances, running joint candidates in most districts but running individual candidates in others.[11]

On 22 December 2020, PRI, PAN, and PRD announced the electoral alliance Va por México.[12] The alliance initially planned to run together in 180 of the 300 electoral districts, but on 23 December, the last day of registration, announced that they would only run together in 171 districts.[13] On 15 February 2021 the Instituto Nacional Electoral (INE) approved the expansion of the coalition to a total of 219 districts. PRI represents the alliance in 77 districts, PAN in 72, and PRD in 70.[14]

In December 2020 Morena, PT, and PVEM announced an electoral alliance, running together in 150 of the 300 electoral districts.[15] On 18 March 2021 the coalition was expanded to cover 183 districts. The alliance is represented by MORENA in 88 districts, PT in 50, and PVEM in 45.[16]

Mexican law requires political parties to obtain at least 3% of the vote to be registered. Registration allows the party to postulate candidates and receive subsidies for campaign expenses (MXN $161.9 million or US$8.1 million each in 2021).[17] Based on 2021 PREP results, Progressive Social Networks, Solidarity Encounter Party, and Force for Mexico will lose their registration. RSP, affiliated with teachers′ union leader Elba Esther Gordillo, had 839,000 (1.76%) votes; PES, affiliated with evangelist Hugo Eric Flores, had 296,568 (2.73%) votes; and FM, affiliated with Senator Ricardo Monreal, had 178,000 (2.48%) votes. The parties have the opportunity to reorganize for the next election.[18]

Distribution of electoral districts by coalition

[edit]
Va por México[19] Juntos Hacemos Historia[20]
  Candidate from PRI (77)
  Candidate from PAN (72)
  Candidate from PRD (70)
  No coalition candidate
  Candidate from MORENA (88)
  Candidate from PVEM (50)
  Candidate from PT (45)
  No coalition candidate

Opinion polls

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Poll Source Date Published Date of Poll Sample Size Margin of Error
Other Undecided/No Answer
Massive Caller[21] August 2020 No Data 600 No Data 40% 11.8% 24.2% 2.16% 3.23% 18.4% No Data
GEA-ISA[22] 17 September 2020 5–7 September 2020 No Data No Data 22% 17% 14% - - 7% 40%
Massive Caller[23] 19 October 2020 No Data 600 ±4.3% 41.8% 12.3% 31.7% 2.3% 3.4% 8.5% No Data
El Universal[24] 30 November 2020 12–17 November 2020 1000 ±3.54% 32% 16% 17% 4% 3% No Data No Data
Mitofsky[25] 17 December 2020 No Data No Data No Data 28.4% 10.8% 14.9% 2.6% 2.6% 9.8% 30.9%
Mitofsky[26] 27 December 2020 No Data No Data No Data 27.4% 13.9% 12.4% 3.3% 1.4% 5.8% 35.8%
El Financiero[27] 4 February 2021 15–16 and 29–30 January 2021 1000 ±3.1% 38% 10% 11% 3% - No Data 33%
Massive Caller[28] 22 February 2021 19 February 2021 600 ±4.1% 51.3% 10.7% 31.3% 2.0% 2.2% No Data No Data
El Financiero[29] 4 March 2021 12–13 and 25–26 February 2021 1000 ±3.1% 44% 10% 10% 3% - No Data 29%
El Financiero[30] 8 April 2021 2–13 and 26–27 March 2021 1000 ±3.1% 40% 10% 11% 3% - No Data 27%
Parametría[31] 10 April 2021 31 March – 10 April 2021 800 ±3.5% 32% 11% 12% 3% 4.5% 12.5% 25%
Massive Caller[32] 16 April 2021 1–15 April 2021 600 ±4.3% 42.1% 17.8% 24.1% 3.4% 4.8% 7.8% No Data
Reforma[33] 16 April 2021 8–13 April 2021 1200 ±4.2% 45% 18% 17% 4% 3% 13% No Data
El Financiero[34] 5 May 2021 29 April – 2 May 2021 2000 ±3.1% 40% 20% 19% 3% 5% 13% No Data
El País[35] 17 May 2021 10–14 May 2021 2000 ±3.46% 44% 19% 18% 3% 5% 8% —
GEA-ISA[36] May 2021 14–17 May 2021 1500 ±2.5% 29.7% 13.0% 15.6% 4.6% 5.8% 9.8% 21.5%
Varela y Asociados[37] 25 May 2021 29 April – 5 May 2021 1500 No Data 46% 15% 17% 5% 5% 12% —
El Universal[38] 27 May 2021 19–25 May 2021 1530 ±2.86% 41% 15.3% 15.9% 3% 7.9% 16.9% —
Parametria[39] 1 June 2021 22–28 May 2021 1000 ±3.1% 40% 16% 15% 3% 7% 19% —
El Financiero[40] 2 June 2021 14–15, 28–29, 27–30 May 2021 2000 ±2.86% 39% 20% 21% 3% 5% 12% —
Reforma[41] 2 June 2021 22–30 May 2021 2000 ±2.8% 43% 20% 18% 2% 7% 10% —

Conduct

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Possibility of post-election protests

[edit]

Prior Mexican elections have been fraught with accusations of election fraud, this had led to massive protests after the majority of Mexican elections in the past two decades. The 2021 legislative election did not cause protests. In a speech on 14 June, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said "We must celebrate it, because we achieved our purpose: to establish in Mexico an authentic, a true democracy."[42]

Political assassinations

[edit]

The runup to the 2021 legislative election in Mexico was filled with political assassinations. More than 91 politicians were killed, 14 of them being candidates. This political violence led to the 2021 elections being labeled as the second most deadly election since the year 2000.[43]

Absentee voting

[edit]

Mexican citizens from eleven states who live overseas can vote electronically or by mail. Most of the elections are for governor, but overseas citizens registered in Mexico City, Jalisco, and Guerrero will be able to vote in state legislative elections.[44]

INE approved a pilot program allowing prison inmates who are held in protective custody in Hermosillo (District 4, Sonora); Villa Comaltitlán, Chiapas; Coatlán del Río (District 4 Jojutla, Morelos); and Buena Vista Tomatlán (District 12 Apatzingán, Michoacán) to vote absentee from 17–19 May 2021. The present order covers only male inmates, but it may be extended to females.[45]

Results

[edit]

The results were a stalemate. The Morena coalition (Juntos Hacemos Historia) retained its majority in the Chamber of Deputies but lost a significant number of seats to the opposition coalition (Va por México). The opposition was able to gain enough seats to block Juntos Hacemos Historia from the two-thirds majority required to make constitutional amendments. The Morena coalition won with over 44% of the popular vote. Morena and its allies also performed very well in gubernatorial races, winning 18, a little over half of Mexico’s 32 governorships.[46]

Because Juntos Hacemos Historia did not have a supermajority or a majority with Morena by itself, there were questions about how that would impact legislative goals. Some said López Obrador might negotiate to bring his policies to fruition. Others said he could attempt to flex his executive muscle and brute force changes by using his powers as president.[47]

The election results hinted that the opposition parties could perform more strongly if they were allied together. With their alliance, Va por México believed it stood a chance of denying Morena a legislative majority or even the presidency in the 2024 election.[48]

The election had a voter turnout of 53% with 49 million votes cast, the largest midterm election in Mexican history.[49]

The results of the INE's official quick count were announced around midnight Mexico City time. It reported around 35% of the vote for Morena, with the following approximate results for the other parties: PAN 19%; PRI 18%; PRD 4%; PVEM 6%; PT 3%; MC 7%; PES, 3%; RSP 2%; FxM 3%; and independents 0.2%.[50]

Party or allianceParty-listConstituencyTotal
seats		+/–
Votes%SeatsVotes%Seats
Juntos
Hacemos
Historia		Morena16,756,18935.307616,629,90535.27122198+7
Ecologist Green Party of Mexico2,670,6775.63122,659,1785.643143+27
Labor Party1,594,6353.3671,588,1523.373037–24
Total21,021,50144.289520,877,23544.28183278+10
Va por MéxicoNational Action Party8,967,78518.89418,896,47018.8773114+33
Institutional Revolutionary Party8,715,19118.36408,663,25718.373070+25
Party of the Democratic Revolution1,792,3483.7881,785,3513.79715–6
Total19,475,32441.038919,345,07841.03110199+52
Citizens' Movement3,449,8047.27163,425,0067.26723–4
Solidarity Encounter Party1,352,3882.8501,344,8352.8500–56
Force for Mexico1,216,7802.5601,210,3842.5700New
Progressive Social Networks868,4441.830864,3911.8300New
Independents44,3110.09044,2920.09000
Non-registered candidates41,9250.09041,5580.09000
Total47,470,477100.0020047,152,779100.003005000
Valid votes47,470,47796.6047,152,77996.60
Invalid/blank votes1,673,0463.401,660,3633.40
Total votes49,143,523100.0048,813,142100.00
Source: DOF, INE

See also

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References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Resultados de los Cómputos Distritales 2021". computos.ine.mx. Retrieved 12 June 2021.
  2. ^ "The Party of the Democratic Revolution: From Postelectoral Movements to Electoral Competitors", Courting Democracy in Mexico, Cambridge University Press, pp. 198–233, 24 November 2003, doi:10.1017/cbo9780511490910.008, ISBN 978-0-521-82001-1, retrieved 23 December 2020
  3. ^ Beauregard, Luis Pablo (5 December 2020). "El PAN aprueba aliarse con el PRI y PRD para intentar arrebatar el Congreso a Morena en 2021". EL PAÍS (in Spanish). Retrieved 6 December 2020.
  4. ^ "Morena, PT y PVEM presentan alianza 'Juntos hacemos historia' para elecciones de 2021". El Financiero (in Spanish). 24 December 2020. Retrieved 12 February 2021.
  5. ^ "Aprueba INE coaliciones "Va Por México" y "Juntos hacemos historia" para elecciones 2021". Aristegui Noticias (in Spanish). 15 January 2021. Retrieved 4 February 2021.
  6. ^ "No es prudente posponer elecciones; la democracia no debe ser víctima del covid: Córdova". proceso.com.mx (in Spanish). Proceso. 3 February 2021. Retrieved 3 February 2021.
  7. ^ "El INE cancela tres candidaturas a diputación federal por violencia política de género". www.proceso.com.mx (in Spanish). Proceso. Retrieved 10 June 2021.
  8. ^ "INE podría armar expediente sobre intervención de jerarcas católicos en la elección". www.proceso.com.mx (in Spanish). Proceso. Retrieved 10 June 2021.
  9. ^ "Mexico Is Holding Its Largest Elections Ever. They're Also One Of Its Deadliest". NPR.org. Retrieved 7 June 2021.
  10. ^ Suarez, Karol; Romo, Rafael; Berlinger, Joshua (7 June 2021). "Mexico's President loses grip on power in midterm elections marred by violence". CNN. Retrieved 7 June 2021.
  11. ^ "Presentan partidos dos solicitudes para formar coaliciones" (in Spanish). 28 December 2020. Retrieved 6 June 2021.
  12. ^ "PRD, PRI y PAN anuncian coalición "Va por México" para elección federal del 2021". PRI official website (in Spanish). 22 December 2020. Retrieved 6 June 2021.
  13. ^ "Registran Va por México en INE; busca 171 distritos". El Universal (in Spanish). 24 December 2020. Retrieved 6 June 2021.
  14. ^ "RESOLUCIÓN DEL CONSEJO GENERAL DEL INSTITUTO NACIONAL ELECTORAL RESPECTO DE LA SOLICITUD DEL REGISTRO DE LA MODIFICACIÓN DEL CONVENIO DE LA COALICIÓN PARCIAL DENOMINADA "VA POR MÉXICO" PARA POSTULAR DOSCIENTAS DIECINUEVE FÓRMULAS DE CANDIDATURAS A DIPUTACIONES POR EL PRINCIPIO DE MAYORÍA RELATIVA, PRESENTADO POR LOS PARTIDOS ACCIÓN NACIONAL, REVOLUCIONARIO INSTITUCIONAL Y DE LA REVOLUCIÓN DEMOCRÁTICA, PARA CONTENDER BAJO ESA MODALIDAD EN EL PROCESO ELECTORAL FEDERAL 2020-2021, APROBADA MEDIANTE RESOLUCIÓN IDENTIFICADA CON LA CLAVE INE/CG20/2021, POR EL ÓRGANO SUPERIOR DE DIRECCIÓN DEL INSTITUTO NACIONAL ELECTORAL EN SESIÓN ORDINARIA CELEBRADA EL QUINCE DE ENERO DOS MIL VEINTIUNO" (PDF). INE official website (in Spanish). Retrieved 6 June 2021.
  15. ^ "Presentan partidos dos solicitudes para formar coaliciones" (in Spanish). 28 December 2020. Retrieved 6 June 2021.
  16. ^ "MODIFICACIÓN AL CONVENIO DE COALICIÓN ELECTORAL PARCIAL QUE CELEBRAN EL PARTIDO POLÍTICO NACIONAL MORENA, EN LO SUCESIVO "MORENA", REPRESENTADO POR EL C. MARIO MARTÍN DELGADO CARRILLO, PRESIDENTE DEL COMITÉ EJECUTIVO NACIONAL Y MINERVA CITLALLI HERNÁNDEZ MORA SECRETARIA GENERAL DEL COMITÉ EJECUTIVO NACIONAL, ASÍ COMO EL PARTIDO DEL TRABAJO, EN LO SUCESIVO "PT", REPRESENTADO POR LOS CC. SILVANO GARAY ULLOA Y JOSÉ ALBERTO BENAVIDES CASTAÑEDA, COMISIONADOS POLÍTICOS NACIONALES DEL "PT" Y EL PARTIDO VERDE ECOLOGISTA DE MÉXICO, EN LO SUCESIVO "PVEM", REPRESENTADO POR LA C. KAREN CASTREJÓN TRUJILLO, EN SU CALIDAD DE VOCERA DEL COMITÉ EJECUTIVO NACIONAL, CON EL OBJETO DE POSTULAR FÓRMULAS DE CANDIDATAS Y CANDIDATOS A DIPUTADAS Y DIPUTADOS POR EL PRINCIPIO DE MAYORÍA RELATIVA EN (183) CIENTO OCHETA Y TRES, DE LOS TRESCIENTOS DISTRITOS ELECTORALES UNINOMINALES, EN QUE SE CONFORMAN E INTEGRAN EL PAÍS, CARGOS DE ELECCIÓN POPULAR A ELEGIRSE EN LA JORNADA COMICIAL FEDERAL ORDINARIA QUE TENDRÁ VERIFICATIVO EL 6 DE JUNIO DEL AÑO 2021, POR LOS QUE SE SOMETEN SU VOLUNTAD A LOS SIGUIENTES CAPÍTULADOS DE CONSIDERANDOS, ANTECEDENTES Y CLÁUSULAS" (PDF). INE official website (in Spanish). Retrieved 6 June 2021.
  17. ^ "PES, Fuerza por México y RSP se encaminan a perder el registro como partidos". ADNPolítico (in Spanish). 9 June 2021. Retrieved 12 June 2021.
  18. ^ "RSP, PES y Fuerza por México pierden registro, según el PREP". www.proceso.com.mx (in Spanish). Proceso. Retrieved 12 June 2021.
  19. ^ "Convenio de Coalición Modificado" (PDF). Instituto Nacional Electoral (in Spanish). Retrieved 18 February 2021.
  20. ^ "Juntos Hacemos Historia: Convenio de Coalición Modificado" (PDF). Instituto Nacional Electoral (in Spanish). 18 March 2021. Retrieved 7 April 2021.
  21. ^ "A 10 meses de las elecciones, peligra el registro de PRD y PVEM: encuesta". Massive Caller (in Spanish). 13 August 2020. Retrieved 14 August 2020.
  22. ^ "Cae aprobación de AMLO a 45%: GEA-ISA". HojaDeRuta (in Spanish). 17 September 2020. Retrieved 25 December 2020.
  23. ^ @MassiveCaller (19 October 2020). "Compartimos nuestra tercer medición de la intención de voto para elegir diputados federales en los 300 distritos" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  24. ^ "Morena, el favorito en los comicios de 2021 con un 32%: sondeo". Forbes (in Spanish). 30 November 2020. Retrieved 31 December 2020.
  25. ^ @Mitofsky_group (17 December 2020). "Preferencia para Diputados Federales #Rumbo2021 (contempla preferencia por alianzas)" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  26. ^ @Mitofsky_group (27 December 2020). "En #Elecciones2021 de #diputados federales los mexicanos piensan que ganará Morena, seguido del PRI y luego PAN #EncuestaMITOFSKY" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  27. ^ "Morena aventaja… con apoyo de adultos mayores, universitarios y personas con menos estudios". El Financiero (in Spanish). 4 February 2021. Retrieved 5 February 2021.
  28. ^ "Facebook". www.facebook.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 23 February 2021.
  29. ^ "Morena toma 'vuelo' con las vacunas: se dispara a 44% la intención del voto hacia el partido". El Financiero (in Spanish). 3 March 2021. Retrieved 4 March 2021.
  30. ^ Moreno, Alejandro (8 April 2021). "A 2 meses de la elección, Morena lidera con 40% la intención de voto para San Lázaro". El Financiero (in Spanish). Retrieved 8 April 2021.
  31. ^ "Parametría". parametria.com.mx (in Spanish). 21 April 2021. Retrieved 27 April 2021.
  32. ^ "Facebook". www.facebook.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 16 April 2021.
  33. ^ "Lidera Morena arranque; 1 de cada 4 no muestra preferencias". Reforma (in Spanish). 16 April 2021. Retrieved 17 April 2021.
  34. ^ Moreno, Alejandro (5 May 2021). "Preferencia efectiva por Morena registra 40% a nivel nacional". El Financiero (in Spanish). Retrieved 5 May 2021.
  35. ^ Corona, Sonia; Galindo, Jorge (17 May 2021). "Morena pierde la mayoría absoluta y necesita de aliados para controlar el Congreso". El País (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 May 2021.
  36. ^ "Segunda Encuesta Nacional de Opinión Ciudadana 2021 (Previa a las elecciones)" (PDF). invesoc.com/ (in Spanish).
  37. ^ de la Rosa, Yared (25 May 2021). "Coalición PAN-PRI-PRD no podrá ganarle a Morena el control de San Lázaro: Citibanamex". Forbes (in Spanish). Retrieved 2 June 2021.
  38. ^ Buendía, Jorge; Márquez, Javier (27 May 2021). "Morena y aliados, a 12 curules de mayoría calificada en San Lázaro". El Universal (in Spanish). Retrieved 27 May 2021.
  39. ^ De Haldevang, Max (1 June 2021). "Mexico Government Close to Keeping Congress Super-Majority: Poll". Bloomberg. Retrieved 2 June 2021.
  40. ^ Moreno, Alejandro (2 June 2021). "País dividido: 46% perfila votar por la 4T; 44% por el PRI-PAN-PRD". El Financiero (in Spanish). Retrieved 2 June 2021.
  41. ^ "Lidera Morena preferencias a Diputados". Reforma (in Spanish). 2 June 2021. Retrieved 2 June 2021.
  42. ^ Presidencia de la República. "Versión estenográfica. Conferencia de prensa del presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador del 14 de junio de 2021". gob.mx (in Spanish). Retrieved 25 June 2021.
  43. ^ García, Diana. "Asesinatos de candidatos manchan elecciones de 6 de junio en México". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved 25 June 2021.
  44. ^ "Alista INE voto electrónico de mexicanos que viven en el extranjero para elecciones 2021". Aristegui Noticias (in Spanish). 4 October 2019. Retrieved 4 February 2021.
  45. ^ "INE da luz verde a prueba piloto de voto en prisión en 5 Ceferesos". proceso.com.mx (in Spanish). Proceso. 3 February 2021. Retrieved 4 February 2021.
  46. ^ "Conteo rápido del INE proyecta a Morena y aliados sin mayoría calificada en Diputados". El Universal (in Spanish). 6 June 2021. Retrieved 25 June 2021.
  47. ^ "What Happened on June 6?". THE MEXICO INSTITUTE 2021 ELECTIONS GUIDE. Retrieved 25 June 2021.
  48. ^ "What Happened on June 6?". THE MEXICO INSTITUTE 2021 ELECTIONS GUIDE. Retrieved 25 June 2021.
  49. ^ "Conteo rápido del INE proyecta a Morena y aliados sin mayoría calificada en Diputados". El Universal (in Spanish). 6 June 2021. Retrieved 25 June 2021.
  50. ^ "Conteo rápido del INE proyecta a Morena y aliados sin mayoría calificada en Diputados". El Universal (in Spanish). 6 June 2021. Retrieved 25 June 2021.
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