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User:Visviva/Dumpster dive

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Data on user and article stratification over time, gleaned from the 2022-07-01 stub-meta-history dump of EN wiki.

General numbers

[edit]

As of the 2022-07-01 stub-meta-history dump:

  • Total pages in mainspace: 16666393
  • Total users who have contributed at least one non-deleted revision of a page currently in mainspace: 8783518
  • Total edits associated with a mainspace page: 722794550
  • Total edits to a mainspace page that are associated with a user: 722772635
  • Difference (revisions with attribution removed): 21915 (0.003%)

General annual stats

[edit]

Mainspace only. Excludes bots. Excludes redirects from page count but not from edit count.

Basic stats by calendar year
Users editing IPs editing Pages edited Redirects edited User user-page-months IP user-page-months User edits IP edits
2001 1030 0 16978 4014 41942 0 60063 0
2002 1966 16719 94827 25016 246124 76337 350699 112424
2003 8370 59245 140200 64335 613261 183868 974004 278521
2004 37611 283366 397122 228745 2505890 750262 3896678 1159237
2005 148756 1228808 781322 479689 5973071 3090879 9785081 5069111
2006 630074 3387078 1344460 881178 14135037 7947191 25470891 13089251
2007 943270 5001864 1816777 927456 16704193 10607947 30968390 17149981
2008 894634 5039842 2216398 884882 16230635 10067050 29698093 16166731
2009 864149 4650723 2526614 827129 15439551 9147470 28343089 14739273
2010 804968 4378615 2705234 738706 14718878 8497908 26904279 13705928
2011 808259 3698374 2830528 678752 13560671 7088552 25165253 11381104
2012 714093 3395254 3032412 712226 13594185 6535885 24787710 10606703
2013 713666 3115733 3068502 651053 13095303 5998229 23904628 9767365
2014 772545 2613881 3174919 620310 12544149 5248935 23151748 8678007
2015 743490 2797009 3369813 676210 13550707 5590961 25206383 9474953
2016 701861 2976090 3652241 690914 14474956 5838372 26209753 9772962
2017 716793 2919222 3670051 957042 14583807 5651626 26787421 9382811
2018 715240 2887622 3982402 706172 15269394 5463227 27342221 8932214
2019 712830 2892729 3945903 619308 15012268 5423885 27307812 8839292
2020 723696 2923310 4383098 630292 16818593 5283565 30382208 8669883
2021 667693 2805778 4423475 752503 17040539 5190295 30952958 8565447
2022 376831 1261679 3372516 354829 8780589 2342456 15443283 3863418

User classes

[edit]

By first-year edits

[edit]

Cf. m:Research:Editor classes (which uses all-namespace edits). Does not currently exclude bots. Note that 2021 and 2022 will be substantially incomplete (since 12 months from first edit will not be up until December 2022 for some 2021 starters, and not until December 2023 for some 2022 starters).

EN Wikipedians who made a total of n edits to pages that are currently in mainspace in the 12 months following their first mainspace edit, by calendar year of first mainspace edit
Year 1-9 edits 10-99 edits 100-999 edits 1,000-9,999 edits 10,000+ edits
2001 638 262 108 21 1
2002 862 541 239 98 6
2003 4012 2438 837 244 15
2004 18779 10974 3288 876 47
2005 81921 37028 9446 2167 90
2006 419673 119473 17932 2887 136
2007 615165 117128 11870 1620 75
2008 549136 93138 8932 1199 78
2009 515956 83819 7904 951 39
2010 467135 72950 6397 732 40
2011 469750 71285 6119 597 27
2012 398055 61711 5561 567 32
2013 404025 58992 5207 521 21
2014 474520 62189 5338 522 19
2015 447422 59536 5268 502 24
2016 412834 53837 4853 493 28
2017 422156 54903 5225 538 23
2018 411455 51961 4911 544 25
2019 402849 51623 4709 527 19
2020 403141 54231 6206 812 42
2021 359627 48528 5731 655 27
2022 172752 19372 1670 94 4

2021 edits by first-year edits

[edit]

Excludes editors joining during or after 2021. See results for other calendar years.

2021 mainspace editors and edits by first-year edit class
0 edits in 2021 1-9 edits in 2021 10-99 edits in 2021 100-999 edits in 2021 1000-9999 edits in 2021 >10000 edits in 2021
1-9 edits in first twelve months 6803879 users
making
0 edits 		104437 users
making
246702 edits 		9823 users
making
241260 edits 		1101 users
making
320931 edits 		227 users
making
612468 edits 		17 users
making
515636 edits
10-99 edits in first twelve months 1015159 users
making
0 edits 		67421 users
making
222303 edits 		30589 users
making
847559 edits 		4008 users
making
1131624 edits 		767 users
making
2084765 edits 		75 users
making
1808294 edits
100-999 edits in first twelve months 92432 users
making
0 edits 		10251 users
making
35925 edits 		9696 users
making
375262 edits 		6689 users
making
2106689 edits 		1210 users
making
3123022 edits 		72 users
making
1611375 edits
1000-9999 edits in first twelve months 9917 users
making
0 edits 		1346 users
making
4893 edits 		1579 users
making
61548 edits 		1704 users
making
708459 edits 		1735 users
making
5307778 edits 		137 users
making
3322450 edits
>10000 edits in first twelve months 465 users
making
0 edits 		25 users
making
63 edits 		39 users
making
1565 edits 		55 users
making
25170 edits 		108 users
making
422066 edits 		95 users
making
14477369 edits

By calendar-year edits

[edit]

Excludes bots. Counts edits to pages currently in mainspace only. IP edits not included in percentages.

Number of registered users who made n extant mainspace edits in each calendar year
Year 1-9 edits 10-99 edits 100-999 edits 1,000-9,999 edits 10,000+ edits Percent of all
registered
users who edited 		Percent of all
edits by
registered users
2001 712 users
making
1,737 edits 		231 users
making
7,504 edits 		80 users
making
25,659 edits 		6 users
making
7,178 edits 		1 users
making
17,985 edits
69.1
22.4
7.8
0.6
0.1
2.9
12.5
42.7
12.0
29.9
2002 1,099 users
making
3,420 edits 		567 users
making
18,306 edits 		225 users
making
73,009 edits 		72 users
making
189,605 edits 		3 users
making
66,359 edits
55.9
28.8
11.4
3.7
0.15
1.0
5.2
20.8
54.1
18.9
2003 5,123 users
making
15,557 edits 		2,278 users
making
70,530 edits 		759 users
making
251,240 edits 		203 users
making
541,206 edits 		7 users
making
95,471 edits
61.2
27.2
9.1
2.4
0.08
1.6
7.2
25.8
55.6
9.8
2004 24,247 users
making
73,647 edits 		9,735 users
making
298,831 edits 		2,846 users
making
900,517 edits 		742 users
making
1,986,752 edits 		41 users
making
636,931 edits
64.5
25.9
7.6
2.0
0.11
1.9
7.7
23.1
51.0
16.3
2005 105,299 users
making
302,441 edits 		33,308 users
making
982,479 edits 		8,208 users
making
2,508,261 edits 		1,868 users
making
4,899,268 edits 		73 users
making
1,092,632 edits
70.8
22.4
5.5
1.3
0.05
3.1
10.0
25.6
50.1
11.2
2006 489,102 users
making
1,346,667 edits 		114,389 users
making
3,180,812 edits 		21,925 users
making
6,573,454 edits 		4,473 users
making
11,468,829 edits 		185 users
making
2,901,129 edits
77.6
18.2
3.5
0.7
0.03
5.3
12.5
25.8
45.0
11.4
2007 760,679 users
making
2,062,123 edits 		151,941 users
making
4,061,977 edits 		25,222 users
making
7,474,362 edits 		5,205 users
making
13,689,563 edits 		223 users
making
3,680,365 edits
80.6
16.1
2.7
0.6
0.02
6.7
13.1
24.1
44.2
11.9
2008 732,358 users
making
1,944,517 edits 		135,927 users
making
3,610,477 edits 		21,349 users
making
6,352,150 edits 		4,721 users
making
12,682,818 edits 		279 users
making
5,108,131 edits
81.9
15.2
2.4
0.5
0.03
6.5
12.2
21.4
42.7
17.2
2009 710,794 users
making
1,851,915 edits 		128,672 users
making
3,430,016 edits 		20,069 users
making
5,939,928 edits 		4,346 users
making
11,698,674 edits 		268 users
making
5,422,556 edits
82.3
14.9
2.3
0.5
0.03
6.5
12.1
21.0
41.3
19.1
2010 664,656 users
making
1,713,515 edits 		117,970 users
making
3,144,345 edits 		18,060 users
making
5,342,525 edits 		4,011 users
making
10,889,394 edits 		271 users
making
5,814,500 edits
82.6
14.7
2.2
0.5
0.03
6.4
11.7
19.9
40.5
21.6
2011 670,802 users
making
1,710,238 edits 		116,187 users
making
3,080,457 edits 		17,315 users
making
5,071,698 edits 		3,713 users
making
10,149,978 edits 		242 users
making
5,152,882 edits
83.0
14.4
2.1
0.5
0.03
6.8
12.2
20.2
40.3
20.5
2012 588,452 users
making
1,510,922 edits 		105,459 users
making
2,823,823 edits 		16,337 users
making
4,798,596 edits 		3,583 users
making
9,943,818 edits 		262 users
making
5,710,551 edits
82.4
14.8
2.3
0.5
0.04
6.1
11.4
19.4
40.1
23.0
2013 593,126 users
making
1,482,624 edits 		101,504 users
making
2,702,400 edits 		15,346 users
making
4,482,689 edits 		3,453 users
making
9,656,836 edits 		237 users
making
5,580,079 edits
83.1
14.2
2.2
0.5
0.03
6.2
11.3
18.8
40.4
23.3
2014 653,790 users
making
1,607,790 edits 		100,378 users
making
2,645,121 edits 		14,852 users
making
4,359,655 edits 		3,268 users
making
9,020,907 edits 		257 users
making
5,518,275 edits
84.6
13.0
1.9
0.4
0.03
6.9
11.4
18.8
39.0
23.8
2015 625,241 users
making
1,541,063 edits 		98,985 users
making
2,641,990 edits 		15,432 users
making
4,545,125 edits 		3,535 users
making
9,986,211 edits 		297 users
making
6,491,994 edits
84.1
13.3
2.1
0.5
0.04
6.1
10.5
18.0
39.6
25.8
2016 589,695 users
making
1,441,458 edits 		93,127 users
making
2,485,653 edits 		15,170 users
making
4,536,748 edits 		3,543 users
making
9,911,871 edits 		326 users
making
7,834,023 edits
84.0
13.3
2.2
0.5
0.05
5.5
9.5
17.3
37.8
29.9
2017 601,956 users
making
1,484,765 edits 		95,183 users
making
2,541,815 edits 		15,657 users
making
4,701,863 edits 		3,659 users
making
10,329,867 edits 		338 users
making
7,729,111 edits
84.0
13.3
2.2
0.5
0.05
5.5
9.5
17.6
38.6
28.9
2018 603,053 users
making
1,469,945 edits 		92,544 users
making
2,461,278 edits 		15,588 users
making
4,700,190 edits 		3,739 users
making
10,586,953 edits 		316 users
making
8,123,855 edits
84.3
12.9
2.2
0.5
0.04
5.4
9.0
17.2
38.7
29.7
2019 599,171 users
making
1,466,828 edits 		93,747 users
making
2,481,285 edits 		15,787 users
making
4,755,638 edits 		3,808 users
making
10,891,659 edits 		317 users
making
7,712,402 edits
84.1
13.2
2.2
0.5
0.04
5.4
9.1
17.4
39.9
28.2
2020 603,208 users
making
1,476,476 edits 		98,287 users
making
2,639,933 edits 		17,606 users
making
5,301,178 edits 		4,233 users
making
12,007,682 edits 		362 users
making
8,956,939 edits
83.4
13.6
2.4
0.6
0.05
4.9
8.7
17.4
39.5
29.5
2021 548,897 users
making
1,362,124 edits 		95,849 users
making
2,620,663 edits 		18,132 users
making
5,507,660 edits 		4,439 users
making
12,381,620 edits 		376 users
making
9,080,891 edits
82.2
14.4
2.7
0.7
0.06
4.4
8.5
17.8
40.0
29.3
2022 308,580 users
making
761,495 edits 		54,294 users
making
1,491,894 edits 		11,348 users
making
3,514,367 edits 		2,488 users
making
6,292,318 edits 		121 users
making
3,383,209 edits
81.9
14.4
3.0
0.7
0.03
4.9
9.7
22.8
40.7
21.9

Reflections

[edit]

Comparing the above to my priors, two things are apparent: (1) I did not express my expectations with sufficient precision, but also (2) while the general trend toward stratification of the editor community is apparent, when the data is sliced as above, the trend is neither as pronounced nor as consistent as I expected. Since I phrased my predictions in "prove me wrong" terms, it seems fair to say that the data has proven me at least partially wrong. (But not as wrong as I would have liked to be.)

That said, there is an unmistakable upward trend in the proportion of edits made by users with 1000 or more mainspace edits per year, from 55.4% in 2006 to 60.8% in 2011 to 69.3% in 2021, albeit with various hiccups on the year-to-year level. And if we include IP edits in the denominator (which seems reasonable since anons are Wikipedians too), the trend becomes much more pronounced, and almost consistent with what I expected to see -- although there is one year in this period in which stratification fell by 0.1%:

36.1
38.8
39.7
41.1
41.9
44.2
45.3
45.7
47.5
49.3
49.9
51.6
51.5
53.7
54.3
50.1
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
46.29
Average

(Limited to 16 years by template constraints -- 2007 represented a historic low in stratification by this metric, so this may misrepresent the overall historical picture.)

Of course, including IPs in this way is as problematic as excluding them: many IP edits are actually by logged-out registered users (although notably this would suggest that stratification is under-counted), and some individual IP users may actually make more than 1000 edits per year (which might be distributed among multiple IPs or combined with other users of a shared IP). It will be instructive to see if, as per my expectations, the above trend holds when using this metric of (edits by bands 4 and 5) / (edits by all bands and all IPs) against different ways of slicing the data, such as looking at edits across all namespaces.

It will also be interesting to see if the seeming sharp reduction in stratification in the first half of 2022 holds true for the year as a whole. It seems likely to be a seasonal artifact of some kind, or simply an effect of the year being only half complete. But it is also possible that the uptick in stratification in 2020-2021 was related to the pandemic, in which case a drop would not be entirely unexpected.

Article classes

[edit]

Mainspace only, including IPs, excluding bots and redirects.

Number of edits to extant mainspace pages in each calendar year
Year 0 edits 1-9 edits 10-99 edits 100-999 edits 1,000-9,999 edits 10,000+ edits Percent of all
extant pages
then existing 		Percent of
all edits
2001 0 pages
receiving
0 edits 		16,277 pages
receiving
40,062 edits 		700 pages
receiving
10,923 edits 		1 pages
receiving
125 edits 		0 pages
receiving
0 edits 		0 pages
receiving
0 edits
0.0
95.9
4.1
0.0058
0.0
0.0
78.4
21.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
2002 1,515 pages
receiving
0 edits 		84,742 pages
receiving
212,827 edits 		10,013 pages
receiving
187,215 edits 		72 pages
receiving
10,934 edits 		0 pages
receiving
0 edits 		0 pages
receiving
0 edits
1.6
88.0
10.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
51.8
45.6
2.7
0.0
0.0
2003 41,308 pages
receiving
0 edits 		110,676 pages
receiving
386,833 edits 		28,909 pages
receiving
619,202 edits 		614 pages
receiving
100,047 edits 		1 pages
receiving
2,072 edits 		0 pages
receiving
0 edits
22.8
61.0
15.9
0.3
0.00055
0.0
34.9
55.9
9.0
0.2
0.0
2004 18,408 pages
receiving
0 edits 		282,862 pages
receiving
1,105,895 edits 		109,810 pages
receiving
2,483,135 edits 		4,412 pages
receiving
843,112 edits 		38 pages
receiving
58,745 edits 		0 pages
receiving
0 edits
4.4
68.1
26.4
1.1
0.0091
0.0
24.6
55.3
18.8
1.3
0.0
2005 38,282 pages
receiving
0 edits 		490,510 pages
receiving
2,093,430 edits 		272,202 pages
receiving
6,555,451 edits 		18,192 pages
receiving
3,977,780 edits 		417 pages
receiving
721,682 edits 		1 pages
receiving
20,875 edits
4.7
59.8
33.2
2.2
0.1
0.00012
15.7
49.0
29.8
5.4
0.2
2006 57,995 pages
receiving
0 edits 		737,463 pages
receiving
3,202,151 edits 		549,315 pages
receiving
14,474,110 edits 		55,407 pages
receiving
13,155,672 edits 		2,272 pages
receiving
4,116,034 edits 		3 pages
receiving
39,844 edits
4.1
52.6
39.2
4.0
0.2
0.00021
9.2
41.4
37.6
11.8
0.1
2007 134,523 pages
receiving
0 edits 		1,081,657 pages
receiving
4,395,826 edits 		658,753 pages
receiving
17,582,512 edits 		73,512 pages
receiving
17,635,961 edits 		2,855 pages
receiving
4,644,323 edits 		0 pages
receiving
0 edits
6.9
55.4
33.8
3.8
0.1
0.0
9.9
39.7
39.8
10.5
0.0
2008 246,515 pages
receiving
0 edits 		1,469,786 pages
receiving
5,517,195 edits 		674,533 pages
receiving
17,852,482 edits 		70,064 pages
receiving
16,500,974 edits 		2,014 pages
receiving
3,106,795 edits 		1 pages
receiving
10,639 edits
10.0
59.7
27.4
2.8
0.1
0.00004
12.8
41.5
38.4
7.2
0.0
2009 382,030 pages
receiving
0 edits 		1,783,144 pages
receiving
6,322,674 edits 		678,320 pages
receiving
17,728,746 edits 		63,812 pages
receiving
14,557,327 edits 		1,337 pages
receiving
2,024,791 edits 		1 pages
receiving
10,480 edits
13.1
61.3
23.3
2.2
0.045
0.000034
15.6
43.6
35.8
5.0
0.0
2010 587,045 pages
receiving
0 edits 		1,976,355 pages
receiving
6,728,986 edits 		669,051 pages
receiving
17,322,497 edits 		58,891 pages
receiving
13,121,826 edits 		937 pages
receiving
1,400,110 edits 		0 pages
receiving
0 edits
17.8
60.0
20.3
1.8
0.028
0.0
17.4
44.9
34.0
3.6
0.0
2011 803,286 pages
receiving
0 edits 		2,148,713 pages
receiving
7,003,212 edits 		631,295 pages
receiving
16,195,378 edits 		49,838 pages
receiving
10,588,358 edits 		682 pages
receiving
1,059,748 edits 		0 pages
receiving
0 edits
22.1
59.1
17.4
1.4
0.018
0.0
20.1
46.5
30.4
3.0
0.0
2012 935,465 pages
receiving
0 edits 		2,363,481 pages
receiving
7,414,668 edits 		622,177 pages
receiving
15,855,405 edits 		46,152 pages
receiving
9,612,009 edits 		602 pages
receiving
939,281 edits 		0 pages
receiving
0 edits
23.6
59.6
15.7
1.2
0.015
0.0
21.9
46.9
28.4
2.8
0.0
2013 1,204,533 pages
receiving
0 edits 		2,410,426 pages
receiving
7,445,397 edits 		615,280 pages
receiving
15,537,302 edits 		42,345 pages
receiving
8,608,469 edits 		451 pages
receiving
679,450 edits 		0 pages
receiving
0 edits
28.2
56.4
14.4
1.0
0.01
0.0
23.1
48.1
26.7
2.1
0.0
2014 1,399,920 pages
receiving
0 edits 		2,550,167 pages
receiving
7,588,228 edits 		586,887 pages
receiving
14,689,787 edits 		37,452 pages
receiving
7,593,405 edits 		412 pages
receiving
682,692 edits 		1 pages
receiving
10,114 edits
30.6
55.7
12.8
0.8
0.009
0.000021
24.8
48.1
24.8
2.2
0.0
2015 1,496,269 pages
receiving
0 edits 		2,690,202 pages
receiving
8,081,362 edits 		637,381 pages
receiving
15,958,026 edits 		41,725 pages
receiving
8,527,608 edits 		505 pages
receiving
788,437 edits 		0 pages
receiving
0 edits
30.7
55.3
13.1
0.9
0.01
0.0
24.2
47.8
25.6
2.4
0.0
2016 1,497,344 pages
receiving
0 edits 		2,951,877 pages
receiving
8,871,883 edits 		658,044 pages
receiving
16,361,438 edits 		41,801 pages
receiving
8,511,744 edits 		518 pages
receiving
840,940 edits 		1 pages
receiving
19,276 edits
29.1
57.3
12.8
0.8
0.01
0.000019
25.6
47.3
24.6
2.4
0.1
2017 1,739,794 pages
receiving
0 edits 		2,966,260 pages
receiving
8,734,177 edits 		661,123 pages
receiving
16,522,235 edits 		42,185 pages
receiving
8,587,348 edits 		483 pages
receiving
793,090 edits 		0 pages
receiving
0 edits
32.2
54.8
12.2
0.8
0.0089
0.0
25.2
47.7
24.8
2.3
0.0
2018 1,681,862 pages
receiving
0 edits 		3,276,174 pages
receiving
9,543,707 edits 		664,689 pages
receiving
16,456,293 edits 		41,067 pages
receiving
8,315,816 edits 		472 pages
receiving
742,264 edits 		0 pages
receiving
0 edits
29.7
57.8
11.7
0.7
0.0083
0.0
27.2
46.9
23.7
2.1
0.0
2019 1,958,489 pages
receiving
0 edits 		3,232,419 pages
receiving
9,313,981 edits 		671,530 pages
receiving
16,703,349 edits 		41,483 pages
receiving
8,332,984 edits 		471 pages
receiving
758,188 edits 		0 pages
receiving
0 edits
33.2
54.7
11.4
0.7
0.0079
0.0
26.5
47.6
23.7
2.2
0.0
2020 1,776,752 pages
receiving
0 edits 		3,607,917 pages
receiving
10,589,176 edits 		732,262 pages
receiving
17,942,472 edits 		42,376 pages
receiving
8,454,616 edits 		540 pages
receiving
942,328 edits 		3 pages
receiving
44,565 edits
28.8
58.6
11.9
0.7
0.0087
0.000048
27.9
47.3
22.3
2.5
0.1
2021 1,984,936 pages
receiving
0 edits 		3,644,001 pages
receiving
10,603,555 edits 		735,291 pages
receiving
18,072,335 edits 		43,589 pages
receiving
8,776,762 edits 		593 pages
receiving
909,618 edits 		1 pages
receiving
10,066 edits
31.0
56.9
11.5
0.7
0.0092
0.000015
27.6
47.1
22.9
2.4
0.0
2022 3,135,960 pages
receiving
0 edits 		2,999,590 pages
receiving
7,351,937 edits 		357,852 pages
receiving
8,309,494 edits 		14,888 pages
receiving
2,865,400 edits 		184 pages
receiving
278,994 edits 		2 pages
receiving
23,992 edits
48.2
46.1
5.5
0.2
0.0028
0.00003
39.0
44.1
15.2
1.5
0.1

Editor age

[edit]

Excludes bots. Mainspace only.

For each year, the number of registered users who made a mainspace edit who had made their first mainspace edit N years ago.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
2001 1030
2002 1743 223
2003 7542 665 163
2004 33947 2905 584 175
2005 130601 14821 2578 571 185
2006 559985 53085 13554 2625 609 216
2007 745714 142554 40167 11694 2389 543 209
2008 652347 112089 87477 30524 9526 2002 487 182
2009 608580 83616 69358 66078 25585 8372 1912 476 172
2010 547202 73431 50475 50993 52093 21294 7243 1660 430 147
2011 547727 62932 45410 38455 41816 44652 18620 6594 1504 405 144
2012 465884 57317 36424 32532 29280 32718 36426 15895 5750 1368 377 122
2013 468746 50742 34313 27464 26336 24444 28284 31779 14480 5268 1324 360 126
2014 542580 45463 27533 24591 21314 20928 19953 23853 27231 12698 4747 1195 337 122
2015 512738 48477 27050 20670 19708 17620 17812 17217 20765 24076 11487 4332 1113 310 115
2016 472028 46796 27685 20351 16830 16358 15218 15512 15200 18288 21630 10483 4036 1038 304 104
2017 482831 46135 27994 20832 17080 14405 14307 13598 13937 13860 16578 20219 9848 3822 973 271 103
2018 468882 48686 27852 22180 17841 15061 13051 13174 12569 13180 13067 15814 19374 9489 3712 963 248 97
2019 459712 49065 29427 21436 18301 15324 13115 11534 12128 11488 12226 12082 14965 18271 8954 3531 924 251 96
2020 464423 48877 29084 22405 17600 15891 13281 11780 10567 11169 10594 11483 11505 14088 17568 8669 3454 903 253 102
2021 414560 51496 27027 20775 17034 14014 13065 11065 10082 8927 9654 9221 9943 10081 12406 15839 8055 3258 867 235 89
2022 193889 38184 22115 14597 11829 10090 8356 7883 6822 6002 5542 5943 5766 6215 6413 7880 10461 5608 2313 671 186 66

Reflections on editor age and retention

[edit]

The above table likely undercounts first-year repulsion, since it goes by calendar years rather than editor years. Yet even by this metric, editor repulsion after the first year has exceeded 90% every year since 2012. Even as recently as 2020, a higher proportion of editors who joined in 2001 were still active on the project than those who joined in 2019.

Of course, editor numbers don't tell us much about edit numbers. Maybe the older editors are just kibitzers who come back to fix a typo once in a while. One simple metric for evaluating this would be the average age of editors weighted by number of edits. That is, for any given edit, how old is the editor making it likely to be?

In the steady-state case, this weighted average editor age would be constant over time. In the case of a small core of editors aging in place with nobody leaving or joining, it would grow at one year per calendar year.

The growth in weighted editor age was comparatively flat in the project's early years (likely due to the project's explosive growth in that period). But since 2006, weighted editor age has grown at a grimly consistent pace of approximately six months per year:

Average editor age weighted by number of mainspace edits in calendar year. See or edit source data.

This is not as bad as it could be, but is definitely not the mark of a healthy community. Interestingly, 2021 showed the lowest absolute increase in weighted editor age of any year since 2006, going from just 7.62 to 7.77 years. This seems likely to be a pandemic anomaly; I hereby predict that 2022 will return to trend and will be the first year in Wikipedia history in which the weighted editor age exceeds 8 years.

It is perhaps noteworthy that from 2015 to 2017 the increase was reduced to approximately 4 months per year, before skyrocketing to more than 8 months in 2018. The cause of that shift would be interesting to know -- was it due to improved new-editor retention, or were older editors editing less?

Using the metric of two-year retention (i.e. those editors who first made a mainspace edit in 2001 who also made a mainspace edit in 2003, et seq.), retention appears to have been uniformly terrible throughout the 2010s:

Percent of editors who were still editing two years after first edit. See or edit source data.

Accordingly, it seems fair to say that the 2015-2017 editor age anomaly was not due to improved retention, but to some other shift in community composition.

Turning back to the overall trend, the simplest explanation for the decline is that the community became much more hostile in the mid-to-late 2000s and has stayed that way ever since, with the "new normal" of hostility becoming self-perpetuating once it was established.

But the trend could also be explained by the community becoming better at filtering out bad or uncommitted users more quickly. In that case, we would expect that the five-year and ten-year retention rates would have improved, or would at least have become closer to the two-year retention rate: we would lose more users up front, but the ones we don't lose would stick around longer. Unfortunately, this expectation is not borne out:

Percent of editors who were still editing N years after first edit. See or edit source data.

Apart from some anomalies in the earliest years, retention has consistently dropped by roughly half from two years to five years, and again from five years to ten years. It appears that if someone is still around after two calendar years, changes in the Wikipedia environment no longer have much effect on whether they will stick around longer; the odds will be about 50/50 at year 5, and for those still around at year 5, they will be about 50/50 at year 10.

In view of that pattern, it appears that we are not actually doing a better job of finding dedicated Wikipedians. We are simply doing a more effective job of driving them away.


As a member of the anomalous entering class of 2004, I am tempted to take this a little further. Perhaps an editor's formative on-wiki experiences shape the editor's overall attitude toward the project so that editors who have had positive early experiences will not only be less likely to attrit in Y2, but also -- if they are still around in Y2 -- less likely to attrit in Y5 and Y10, even if the wiki has become a less friendly place in the meantime. Given that Wikipedia was a vastly friendlier place in its early years than it is today, this would at least partially account for the early anomalies. It would also suggest that the experience of the entering class of 2012 was uniquely bad even by 2010s standards. Of course, this is merely a hypothesis, but it appears plausible based on the data above.

In voice-exit-loyalty terms, this would mean the quality of a user's experiences during the formative period determines the user's degree of loyalty to the project going forward, i.e. how likely the user is to stick with the project when the going gets rough. Put that way, this result is scarcely surprising. But it also suggests a more damning inference: since Wikipedia is almost completely insensitive to the signal from users choosing to exit, it is precisely those users who had the best experience joining Wikipedia who have had the greatest voice in causing that experience to be so much worse for subsequent Wikipedians. We have, in essence, pulled the ladder up behind us.

This is not what good project stewardship looks like.

Age and edit band

[edit]

The weighted age metric gives us only a crude idea of who is doing what. What if we break down the edit bands by age?

User and edit counts by edit band and age in 2021
1-9 edits 10-99 edits 100-999 edits 1,000-9,999 edits 10,000+ edits Proportions
0-1 years 401,865 users
making
957,784 edits 		55,825 users
making
1,439,751 edits 		7,329 users
making
2,067,013 edits 		993 users
making
2,376,542 edits 		44 users
making
942,858 edits
12.3
18.5
26.6
30.5
12.1
2-5 years 57,709 users
making
159,853 edits 		16,034 users
making
469,209 edits 		4,037 users
making
1,240,170 edits 		1,011 users
making
2,720,709 edits 		59 users
making
1,019,100 edits
2.8
8.4
22.1
48.5
18.2
6-9 years 31,568 users
making
86,530 edits 		8,481 users
making
250,121 edits 		2,338 users
making
750,366 edits 		686 users
making
1,983,298 edits 		66 users
making
1,290,609 edits
2.0
5.7
17.2
45.5
29.6
10+ years 57,755 users
making
157,957 edits 		15,509 users
making
461,582 edits 		4,428 users
making
1,450,111 edits 		1,749 users
making
5,301,071 edits 		207 users
making
5,828,324 edits
1.2
3.5
11.0
40.2
44.2
Proportions
70.3
11.7
6.4
11.6
54.9
17.9
9.5
17.6
37.5
22.5
13.6
26.3
19.2
22.0
16.0
42.8
10.4
11.2
14.2
64.2

One thing that stands out here is that the bulk of activity from the oldest editors comes from a small number of power users, while the newest editors are responsible for most of the edits by long-tail users. Put differently, among the oldest users it is the smallest number who make the greatest number of edits, while among the youngest users it is the greatest number who make the greatest number of edits. It also stands out that there is no editor stratum in which either of the middle-aged bands predominates. (But perhaps this just reflects a poor choice of age bands.) What did these patterns look like in 2015?

User and edit counts by edit band and age in 2015
1-9 edits 10-99 edits 100-999 edits 1,000-9,999 edits 10,000+ edits Proportions
1 492,363 users
making
1,166,400 edits 		61,951 users
making
1,567,228 edits 		6,168 users
making
1,594,808 edits 		710 users
making
1,699,879 edits 		23 users
making
352,431 edits
18.3
24.6
25.0
26.6
5.5
5 62,262 users
making
177,658 edits 		17,672 users
making
509,505 edits 		4,040 users
making
1,254,419 edits 		1,002 users
making
2,796,180 edits 		72 users
making
1,324,040 edits
2.9
8.4
20.7
46.1
21.8
9 58,951 users
making
163,393 edits 		15,566 users
making
451,378 edits 		3,898 users
making
1,259,424 edits 		1,306 users
making
3,848,324 edits 		149 users
making
3,416,726 edits
1.8
4.9
13.8
42.1
37.4
None 11,665 users
making
33,612 edits 		3,796 users
making
113,879 edits 		1,326 users
making
436,474 edits 		517 users
making
1,641,828 edits 		53 users
making
1,398,797 edits
0.9
3.1
12.0
45.3
38.6
Proportions
75.7
11.5
10.6
2.2
59.3
19.3
17.1
4.3
35.1
27.6
27.7
9.6
17.0
28.0
38.5
16.4
5.4
20.4
52.6
21.5

That's somewhat different, but what's really happening here? Is this just the effect of the especially prolific class of 2006 not having reached year 10 yet?

User and edit counts by edit band and age in 2016
1-9 edits 10-99 edits 100-999 edits 1,000-9,999 edits 10,000+ edits Proportions
1 456,936 users
making
1,068,354 edits 		55,632 users
making
1,393,194 edits 		5,603 users
making
1,495,013 edits 		627 users
making
1,437,463 edits 		26 users
making
437,214 edits
18.3
23.9
25.6
24.7
7.5
5 58,947 users
making
167,516 edits 		17,194 users
making
494,281 edits 		3,995 users
making
1,237,916 edits 		1,007 users
making
2,755,429 edits 		81 users
making
1,390,411 edits
2.8
8.2
20.5
45.6
23.0
9 47,543 users
making
130,765 edits 		12,449 users
making
362,950 edits 		3,121 users
making
994,648 edits 		994 users
making
2,913,532 edits 		111 users
making
2,641,997 edits
1.9
5.2
14.1
41.4
37.5
None 26,269 users
making
74,823 edits 		7,852 users
making
235,228 edits 		2,451 users
making
809,171 edits 		915 users
making
2,805,447 edits 		108 users
making
3,364,401 edits
1.0
3.2
11.1
38.5
46.2
Proportions
74.1
11.6
9.1
5.2
56.0
19.9
14.6
9.5
33.0
27.3
21.9
17.8
14.5
27.8
29.4
28.3
5.6
17.7
33.7
42.9

On first look, at least, that seems to be the case.

How about the First Pandemic Year of 2020?

User and edit counts by edit band and age in 2020
1 2 3 4 None Proportions
1 448,575 users
making
1,051,682 edits 		57,213 users
making
1,440,988 edits 		6,667 users
making
1,834,137 edits 		820 users
making
2,034,892 edits 		25 users
making
461,391 edits
15.4
21.1
26.9
29.8
6.8
5 62,798 users
making
173,932 edits 		16,990 users
making
490,990 edits 		4,135 users
making
1,249,222 edits 		1,002 users
making
2,706,929 edits 		55 users
making
1,040,255 edits
3.1
8.7
22.1
47.8
18.4
9 34,685 users
making
94,590 edits 		8,944 users
making
261,693 edits 		2,389 users
making
744,768 edits 		713 users
making
2,035,233 edits 		66 users
making
1,296,354 edits
2.1
5.9
16.8
45.9
29.2
None 57,150 users
making
156,272 edits 		15,140 users
making
446,262 edits 		4,415 users
making
1,473,051 edits 		1,698 users
making
5,230,628 edits 		216 users
making
6,158,939 edits
1.2
3.3
10.9
38.8
45.7
Proportions
71.2
11.8
6.4
10.6
54.6
18.6
9.9
16.9
34.6
23.6
14.0
27.8
16.9
22.5
16.9
43.6
5.2
11.6
14.5
68.8

There are some mildly interesting changes here, but overall I suppose the most striking thing is how even that surge in newcomer activity changed very little in the overall power structure, being largely swamped by increased editing by older editors.

Project space stratification by mainspace band

[edit]

Prior to processing any data, I expected that edits in project space (which for practical purposes I define as both namespaces 4 and 5, since their purposes are seldom clearly distinguished) would show a greater level of stratification than mainspace, and that this trend would have steadily increased over time.

Edits in namespaces 4 and 5 by user's mainspace edit band
0 1-9 10-99 100-999 1000-9999 10000+
2001 28 users
making
36 edits
(1.4%) 		27 users
making
70 edits
(2.72%) 		72 users
making
266 edits
(10.33%) 		69 users
making
1383 edits
(53.73%) 		6 users
making
181 edits
(7.03%) 		1 users
making
638 edits
(24.79%)
2002 36 users
making
57 edits
(0.33%) 		81 users
making
140 edits
(0.82%) 		199 users
making
649 edits
(3.81%) 		191 users
making
3382 edits
(19.86%) 		72 users
making
9916 edits
(58.24%) 		3 users
making
2883 edits
(16.93%)
2003 168 users
making
306 edits
(0.37%) 		271 users
making
646 edits
(0.78%) 		649 users
making
3188 edits
(3.85%) 		629 users
making
20162 edits
(24.38%) 		201 users
making
53593 edits
(64.8%) 		7 users
making
4810 edits
(5.82%)
2004 2474 users
making
5231 edits
(1.12%) 		2080 users
making
5934 edits
(1.27%) 		3327 users
making
22063 edits
(4.71%) 		2288 users
making
110833 edits
(23.68%) 		724 users
making
283701 edits
(60.62%) 		41 users
making
40211 edits
(8.59%)
2005 9114 users
making
23637 edits
(1.69%) 		8116 users
making
24772 edits
(1.77%) 		10175 users
making
78016 edits
(5.58%) 		6321 users
making
344536 edits
(24.66%) 		1819 users
making
814004 edits
(58.26%) 		73 users
making
112182 edits
(8.03%)
2006 31015 users
making
67021 edits
(2.23%) 		25443 users
making
77863 edits
(2.6%) 		25935 users
making
184709 edits
(6.16%) 		15007 users
making
763089 edits
(25.43%) 		4269 users
making
1694246 edits
(56.47%) 		183 users
making
213409 edits
(7.11%)
2007 47217 users
making
90400 edits
(2.64%) 		31217 users
making
86712 edits
(2.54%) 		28082 users
making
198747 edits
(5.81%) 		16109 users
making
864486 edits
(25.28%) 		4890 users
making
1928978 edits
(56.41%) 		220 users
making
250537 edits
(7.33%)
2008 41124 users
making
85444 edits
(2.78%) 		26910 users
making
77934 edits
(2.54%) 		22399 users
making
169918 edits
(5.53%) 		12698 users
making
703062 edits
(22.88%) 		4370 users
making
1721587 edits
(56.03%) 		275 users
making
314907 edits
(10.25%)
2009 33231 users
making
63032 edits
(2.3%) 		21674 users
making
83791 edits
(3.06%) 		19153 users
making
152704 edits
(5.58%) 		11117 users
making
660807 edits
(24.14%) 		3949 users
making
1457203 edits
(53.23%) 		267 users
making
319771 edits
(11.68%)
2010 27528 users
making
55031 edits
(2.26%) 		17987 users
making
80944 edits
(3.32%) 		17053 users
making
143971 edits
(5.9%) 		9564 users
making
568827 edits
(23.31%) 		3584 users
making
1307295 edits
(53.58%) 		266 users
making
283824 edits
(11.63%)
2011 26247 users
making
78695 edits
(3.63%) 		18667 users
making
60964 edits
(2.81%) 		17329 users
making
142611 edits
(6.57%) 		9039 users
making
537031 edits
(24.76%) 		3237 users
making
1121091 edits
(51.68%) 		238 users
making
228743 edits
(10.55%)
2012 21779 users
making
48373 edits
(2.42%) 		15426 users
making
77620 edits
(3.88%) 		15215 users
making
133889 edits
(6.69%) 		8266 users
making
540901 edits
(27.03%) 		3075 users
making
954113 edits
(47.69%) 		255 users
making
245906 edits
(12.29%)
2013 16774 users
making
36933 edits
(2.03%) 		13184 users
making
63802 edits
(3.51%) 		14012 users
making
136147 edits
(7.5%) 		7541 users
making
446579 edits
(24.6%) 		2951 users
making
898063 edits
(49.47%) 		233 users
making
233799 edits
(12.88%)
2014 17561 users
making
56300 edits
(3.35%) 		13326 users
making
46690 edits
(2.78%) 		13086 users
making
122034 edits
(7.26%) 		7114 users
making
392267 edits
(23.33%) 		2735 users
making
833614 edits
(49.57%) 		250 users
making
230817 edits
(13.73%)
2015 17611 users
making
51446 edits
(2.86%) 		14099 users
making
49303 edits
(2.74%) 		13258 users
making
116993 edits
(6.5%) 		7055 users
making
390100 edits
(21.67%) 		2922 users
making
921999 edits
(51.22%) 		291 users
making
270215 edits
(15.01%)
2016 18836 users
making
54501 edits
(3.21%) 		16130 users
making
54209 edits
(3.19%) 		12987 users
making
106616 edits
(6.27%) 		6636 users
making
356859 edits
(21.0%) 		2853 users
making
842966 edits
(49.6%) 		311 users
making
284496 edits
(16.74%)
2017 18722 users
making
43477 edits
(2.6%) 		18177 users
making
75620 edits
(4.52%) 		13429 users
making
100569 edits
(6.01%) 		6717 users
making
339560 edits
(20.29%) 		2917 users
making
826762 edits
(49.4%) 		321 users
making
287525 edits
(17.18%)
2018 18361 users
making
50492 edits
(3.15%) 		18338 users
making
61843 edits
(3.86%) 		13047 users
making
94324 edits
(5.89%) 		6546 users
making
325424 edits
(20.33%) 		2931 users
making
799370 edits
(49.95%) 		301 users
making
268939 edits
(16.8%)
2019 20166 users
making
52110 edits
(3.18%) 		18463 users
making
60447 edits
(3.69%) 		13464 users
making
99192 edits
(6.05%) 		6520 users
making
357440 edits
(21.81%) 		2965 users
making
723550 edits
(44.16%) 		303 users
making
345884 edits
(21.11%)
2020 21416 users
making
47991 edits
(2.61%) 		17772 users
making
63290 edits
(3.44%) 		14076 users
making
102390 edits
(5.56%) 		7642 users
making
378537 edits
(20.57%) 		3374 users
making
900923 edits
(48.95%) 		340 users
making
347212 edits
(18.87%)
2021 16768 users
making
40128 edits
(2.26%) 		15775 users
making
56390 edits
(3.17%) 		13538 users
making
105782 edits
(5.94%) 		7667 users
making
395867 edits
(22.25%) 		3395 users
making
874523 edits
(49.14%) 		349 users
making
306793 edits
(17.24%)
2022 8308 users
making
23657 edits
(2.88%) 		8811 users
making
31179 edits
(3.79%) 		7218 users
making
79813 edits
(9.7%) 		4889 users
making
241522 edits
(29.36%) 		1868 users
making
372815 edits
(45.33%) 		110 users
making
73531 edits
(8.94%)

Reflections on project space stratification

[edit]

After running these initial numbers, although there is a noticeable upward trend in the percentage of project-space edits made by editors in the mainspace five-digit band, the overall degree of stratification seems to be somewhat less (or at any rate not significantly greater) than in article space. I have once again been proven at least partially wrong. Hooray!

But the biggest takeaway for me is that there's more going on in project space than I would have anticipated (1.7 million edits a year?!). I suspect that a meaningful analysis of trends in project space would have to be more granular -- trends in participation on noticeboards, wikiprojects, policy pages, and the deletion zone may all be quite different.

How about editor age? If we run the same weighted-age metric on edits to namespaces 4 and 5 that we ran above for mainspace, we get a familiar but somewhat less regular trend:

The weighted average age for editors in project space rose by about 8 months a year from 2007 to 2019, jumped by 1.1 years to 9.1 in 2020, and rose even further to a staggering 9.3 in 2021. (While the number itself is alarming, it is perhaps noteworthy that this reflects the same, possibly pandemic-related flattening in 2021 that we saw in mainspace.)

I am not quite sure what to make of the apparent drop in weighted age in 2022. It seems like the weighted age should be overstated at the middle of the year -- but if that is the case in 2022, then when the year is complete, this will be the first year in all of Wikipedia history when the weighted age of participants in project space fell from the previous year (and perhaps by as much as two years).

Again, a more granular analysis of exactly what is going on in various sub-areas of project space would probably be necessary to make sense of these numbers.

Priors

[edit]

Before processing any data, I anticipate the following results:

  1. User stratification, operationalized as the percentage of non-bot edits made by very active editors, will have become considerably more pronounced than in 2011.
    • This will be true regardless of whether the edit count is limited to mainspace, or whether users are grouped by their highest level of monthly activity, overall mean level of monthly activity since first edit, or in-year level of monthly activity.
  2. Indeed, there will be no year since 2006 in which user stratification did not increase.
    • As above, this will be true regardless of how the data is sliced.
  3. Article stratification, operationalized as the percentage of non-bot mainspace edits made to very active articles, will also have consistently increased year-on-year since at least 2006.
    • As above, this will be true regardless of how the data is sliced (in-year level of monthly activity, overall mean level of monthly activity since creation, or in-year level of monthly activity).

Code

[edit]

The current rough code can be found here.

Data

[edit]

CSV datasets generated by the above code, in the form of 22 annual user-page-month CSV files and one CSV file each of user and page definitions, can be found here.

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