Talk:Endemic COVID-19

Again

The recent spate of "pandemic's over, so it's obviously endemic" edits makes me think that we are being unclear. Perhaps we should think about putting a sentence in the first paragraph that says something like:

"Endemic COVID-19 is not the only possible outcome of the COVID-19 pandemic, as a new virus could remain a pandemic indefinitely, be reduced to sporadic outbreaks, or be seen in local or regional epidemics rather than becoming endemic."

I've also been thinking about turning the bullet list in Endemic COVID-19#Definition and characteristics into a table with a suitable graph showing each item, in the hope that if we put in a few color glossy pictures with circles and arrows and a paragraph on the back of each one that people might notice them, and if they notice the colorful pictures, they might read the words next to them, and then they might, possibly, just perhaps notice that it's a little bit more complicated than "I feel like the pandemic's over and therefore it's endemic".

Alternatively (or additionally), we could put a {{FAQ}} at the top of the talk page that says something like:

When is Wikipedia going to admit that the pandemic is over and COVID-19 is endemic already?

Just as soon as multiple major medical journal articles directly investigate the subject, define what they mean by 'endemic', and make a clear and direct statement that COVID-19 has entered an endemic phase. Note, for the record:

• Multiple sources, not just one;
• Major journals, not a predatory journal that will print anything as long as they get paid;
• Medical journal articles (sources that are both peer-reviewed and review articles or meta-analyses are preferred), not newspapers, magazines, or social media;
• Directly investigate the subject, not just a passing mention like 'now that the pandemic is over'. Direct investigations sound like "Based on the last six pages of data and calculations, we conclude that COVID-19 has become endemic in Europe";
• Define their terms, because there are multiple valid definitions for endemic (e.g. one that includes seasonal flu and another that doesn't), and we need to know exactly what to say in this article without misrepresenting the sources;
• Clear and direct statement, not just 'they said that "the pandemic was something", so that obviously proves that it is endemic instead of sporadic or epidemic or any of the other options'. A clear and direct statement will likely sound something like "COVID-19 entered a hyperendemic phase with moderate semi-annual seasonal variation in late 2022".

What do you think? WhatamIdoing (talk) 04:32, 18 July 2024 (UTC)

I'm not convinced that "a new virus could remain a pandemic indefinitely" is sourceable or true, nor that the above is necessary. As noted previously at the pandemic's talk page, some experts and published papers have said it is endemic already, or that the concept is so vaguely/inconsistently defined such that it depends on the definition. This should be consistent with that, if nothing else. However, at this point I honestly think we should just redirect this to COVID-19_pandemic#Transition_to_later_phases. Most of what's here is already covered better there, or from poor sources like old commentary pieces in journals that we can just get rid of anyway. If people want to have content about different definitions of endemic in detail, and whether different diseases technically meet such and such threshold, that can go at Endemic (epidemiology), which is still pretty short, and can cover various diseases all at once. Crossroads ^-talk- 21:14, 18 July 2024 (UTC)

As we frequently say about blocks, Wikipedia:Indefinite is not infinite. If someone knows the ending date in advance for every pandemic, then I'm sure that would be interesting to researchers, but it doesn't sound very plausible.

Can you give me some links to articles in medical journals that directly address the question of COVID-19's endemicity? I'm not looking for a history paper like the "Historiographical article", written in 2020 and published in a special issue (a Supplement (publishing)? MEDRS warns against those), which is cited in COVID-19 pandemic#Transition to later phases. I'm not even sure that was peer-reviewed. The issue says that the history journal "Centaurus contains articles, historiographical articles, book reviews and editorial communications. Articles must report original research and will be subjected to review by referees" – with the obvious-to-me implication that "historiographical articles, book reviews and editorial communications" are not peer-reviewed.) I'm specifically looking for papers that say something like "Here's our definition of endemic, here are the metrics for it, here's the data, and the end result is that we are/aren't in an endemic phase right now". It doesn't matter to me whether the metrics are "prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 virus detection in wastewater" or "proportion of public services operating at pre-pandemic capacity"; I just want something that chooses a definition and determines whether or not we are there yet. WhatamIdoing (talk) 22:18, 18 July 2024 (UTC)

Endemic overview

COVID-19 was predicted to become an endemic disease by many experts. The observed behavior of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, suggests it is unlikely it will die out, and the lack of a COVID-19 vaccine that provides long-lasting immunity against infection means it cannot immediately be eradicated; thus, the transition to an endemic phase was probable. In the current endemic phase, people continue to become infected and ill, but in numbers that we will accept like we do for the flu as an example. Such a transition took until 2023 but there is no specific date or month for when the pandemic ended. We can clearly see from Boston University that we see that the number of the COVID-19 hospitalizations from January 2023 and January 2024 were similar and that they were nearly the same. COVID-19 is here to stay and not growing milder, so we can see that this virus is clearly endemic.

COVID-19 endemicity is distinct from the COVID-19 public health emergency of international concern, which was ended by the World Health Organization on 5 May 2023. Endemic is a frequently misunderstood and misused word outside the realm of epidemiology. Endemic does not mean mild, or that COVID-19 must become a less hazardous disease. Malaria is endemic and that does not mean it is not dangerous and it is sad that it may never end. Some politicians and commentators have conflated what they termed endemic COVID-19 with the lifting of public health restrictions or a comforting return to pre-pandemic normality that guidelines were lifted in early 2022. This was called "the pandemic phase" that restrictions for masks and vaccines were lifted. People may have taken it less seriously, but this is before the pandemic ended. The severity of endemic disease would be dependent on various factors, including the evolution of the virus, population immunity, and vaccine development and rollout, number of deaths. BenSchmidt7439 (talk) 18:43, 20 July 2024 (UTC)

Seasonal pattern

COVID-19 became seasonal in 2023. We noticed that the virus acted strange, as it did have a seasonal pattern. COVID-19 peaks in winter, have a sharp decline in spring, another peak in summer but not as bad in winter, and another decline of cases in fall but not as high as spring. The reason COVID-19 peaks in winter is because we are all inside and gathering and that is why we all catch each other's germs. Also, other germs are going around like COVID-19. The reason it goes up in summer is because of all the traveling and being around so many people outside. And the pool causes a lot of COVID-19 to spread. People generally are around each other less in spring and everything is less crowded. COVID-19 peaks in December through February. Cases start slightly going down in March. COVID-19 has a sharp decline of cases in April and May, peaks again in June through August, and has a decline of cases in September through November. April and May seem to be the months where COVID-19 is the safest. Even though COVID-19 does get high in summer, that does not mean you cannot enjoy life in summer. COVID-19 seems to be at epidemic levels in summer and winter, but it seems to still be overall lower than it was before 2023. But because we know it is seasonal and occurs high in winter and summer, it is not considered an epidemic. COVID-19 seems to be an overall less common virus. In 2022, herd immunity and natural immunity seemed to make COVID-19 less common. In summer and winter, the virus seems to be not common, but not uncommon. Your chance of catching COVID-19 in winter and summer is still low, but not zero. Most people will not catch COVID-19 more than a few times and the quickest anyone has ever caught COVID-19 was in 14 days and you are not likely to get it again until a while. This is not because it provides long-term immunity, but because COVID-19 is not an everyday virus you are around. BenSchmidt7439 (talk) 18:55, 20 July 2024 (UTC)

It appears that the enthusiastic new editor has been blocked for Wikipedia:Sockpuppetry this time. WhatamIdoing (talk) 00:02, 21 July 2024 (UTC)

CDC spokesman

A interview with a reporter isn't scientific evidence, but I thought I'd note that Aron Hall of the US CDC said COVID-19 is "endemic throughout the world" and that "The best way to describe COVID right now is as endemic but with these periodic epidemics".

The other main points in the news article are that endemic isn't another way to say good – an epidemiologist compares it to malaria and tuberculosis – and that some scientists think it will take a decade for endemicity to be reached.

Overall, this makes me think that our article is in approximately the right place. WhatamIdoing (talk) 22:04, 10 August 2024 (UTC)

Thank you for sharing this. Ashish Jha also seems to support that it is endemic right now (not all agree as you note). I still think that this article should add material stating something like "As of 2024, experts were in disagreement as to whether or not COVID-19 had yet become endemic.", citing that source as well as [1][2]. We can also say, "The transition point of a pandemic into an endemic state is not well-defined, and whether or not this has occurred differs according to the definitions used.", citing [3]. Crossroads ^-talk- 21:18, 12 August 2024 (UTC)

I agree with those (as appropriate facts), but we probably need to think about the sources. Something more "science-y" might be an easier sell. WhatamIdoing (talk) 00:12, 13 August 2024 (UTC)