Talk:2018 VP1

Astronomy: Astronomical objects / Solar System Low‑importance

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Last sentence in lede

“However, it is not listed as a Potentially hazardous asteroid due to its small size.”

I’d like to change this to:

“It is not listed as a potentially hazardous asteroid given its size (7 feet in diameter) is smaller than the threshold for potentially hazardous objects (460 feet in diameter).” And then cite the 460 foot threshold source. Any objections? - Scarpy (talk) 06:49, 23 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

That is fine. Keep in mind that "potentially hazardous asteroid" is just a generic category and says very little about how threatening an orbit is presently. Risk-listed asteroids are asteroids with KNOWN potential impact dates as listed at Sentry and esa. Potentially hazardous asteroids are (for the majority of objects) a generic category of asteroids that could evolve to be a threat to Earth over next Millennium or so.

JPL solution?

Strangely, the JPL Horizons solution gives minimum distance 0.0028 AU, or 419,000 km, beyond the moon!? Tom Ruen (talk) 19:57, 25 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Ephemeris

*******************************************************************************
JPL/HORIZONS                     (2018 VP1)                2020-Aug-23 18:14:02
Rec #:50423994 (+COV) Soln.date: 2018-Nov-19_06:41:32       # obs: 21 (13 days)
...
*******************************************************************************
Ephemeris / WWW_USER Sun Aug 23 18:14:02 2020 Pasadena, USA      / Horizons    
*******************************************************************************
Target body name: (2018 VP1)                      {source: JPL#4}
Center body name: Earth (399)                     {source: DE431}
Center-site name: GEOCENTRIC
*******************************************************************************
Start time      : A.D. 2020-Jan-01 00:00:00.0000 UT      
Stop  time      : A.D. 2022-Jan-01 00:00:00.0000 UT      
Step-size       : 30 minutes
...
****************************************************************************************************************
 Date__(UT)__HR:MN     R.A._____(ICRF)_____DEC   APmag   S-brt            delta      deldot    S-O-T /r    S-T-O
****************************************************************************************************************
 2020-Nov-02 10:00     21 52 52.67 -07 43 07.8  20.672    n.a. 0.00282467547262  -1.2235949 107.4966 /T  72.3471
 2020-Nov-02 10:30     22 00 55.68 -06 27 27.0  20.589    n.a. 0.00281231665341  -0.8296176 109.7686 /T  70.0779
 2020-Nov-02 11:00     22 08 59.68 -05 10 45.3  20.511    n.a. 0.00280472614903  -0.4314144 112.0549 /T  67.7944
 2020-Nov-02 11:30     22 17 03.51 -03 53 23.6  20.437    n.a. 0.00280194280502  -0.0309902 114.3473 /T  65.5047  <----
 2020-Nov-02 12:00     22 25 05.98 -02 35 43.4  20.369    n.a. 0.00280398094664   0.3695934 116.6376 /T  63.2171
 2020-Nov-02 12:30     22 33 05.95 -01 18 06.6  20.307    n.a. 0.00281083001221   0.7682710 118.9173 /T  60.9400

The asteroid will intersect Earth's orbit. A slight variation in the orbit can cause the asteroid to be early (NEODyS solution), right on time (Sentry solution), or late (JPL solution). Many lost objects listed on the Sentry Risk Table, such as 2007 FT3, have nominal orbits that place them further than the Sun during the "possible impact". -- Kheider (talk) 20:08, 25 August 2020 (UTC)[reply]

8/23/2020

The article got 25982 hits on 23 August 2020. -- Kheider (talk) 20:31, 14 September 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Unrelated Nov 3 fireball

The OR/WA fireball seen at 3 November 2020 03:11 UT was ~26 hours too late to have anything to do with a 2 November 2020 01:12 UT virtual impactor. In 26 hours Earth will move 2.8 million km from the orbit crossing. The impact window is only roughly 8 minutes wide. -- Kheider (talk) 19:17, 3 November 2020 (UTC)[reply]

Updating

"The November 2020 Earth approach will be hidden" in #1.1 Impact line and other passages in the article need updating. Mcljlm (talk) 16:41, 10 November 2020 (UTC)[reply]

As the small asteroid was not visually recovered there is very little to change other than verb tenses. -- Kheider (talk) 15:18, 11 November 2020 (UTC)[reply]

ESA Tweet

This tweet by ESA Operations is their nominal orbit solution but does NOT account for the uncertainties. -- Kheider (talk) 15:19, 13 November 2020 (UTC)[reply]