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Credit rating

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A credit rating is an evaluation of the credit risk of a prospective debtor (an individual, a business, company or a government). It is the practice of predicting or forecasting the ability of a supposed debtor to pay back the debt or default.[1]. The credit rating represents an evaluation from a credit rating agency of the qualitative and quantitative information for the prospective debtor, including information provided by the prospective debtor and other non-public information obtained by the credit rating agency's analysts.

Credit reporting (or credit score) is a subset of credit rating. It is a numeric evaluation of an individual's credit worthiness, which is done by a credit bureau or consumer credit reporting agency.

Sovereign credit ratings

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Country risk rankings (Q4 2017)[2][3] Least risky countries, Score out of 100 Source: Euromoney country risk
Rank Rank Change Country Overall Score
1 - Singapore 88.6
2 - Norway 87.66
3 - Switzerland 87.64
4 - Denmark 85.67
5 ▲2 Sweden 85.59
6 ▼1 Luxembourg 83.85
7 ▼1 Netherlands 83.76
8 ▲4 Finland 83.1
9 - Canada 82.98
10 ▲1 Australia 82.18

A sovereign credit rating is the credit rating of a sovereign entity, such as a national government. The sovereign credit rating indicates the risk level of the investing environment of a country and is used by investors when looking to invest in particular jurisdictions, and also takes into account political risk.

The "country risk rankings" table shows the ten least-risky countries for investment as of January 2018. Ratings are further broken down into components including political risk, economic risk. Euromoney's bi-annual country risk index monitors the political and economic stability of 185 sovereign countries, with Singapore emerging as the least risky country since 2017 – it is also one of the only few countries in the world as well as the only in Asia to achieve a AAA sovereign credit rankings from all major credit agencies.[4][5]

Results focus foremost on economics, specifically sovereign default risk or payment default risk for exporters (also known as a trade credit risk). A. M. Best defines "country risk" as the risk that country-specific factors could adversely affect an insurer's ability to meet its financial obligations.[6]

Short and long-term ratings

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A rating expresses the likelihood that the rated party will go into default within a given time horizon. In general, a time horizon of one year or under is considered short term, and anything above that is considered long term. In the past institutional investors preferred to consider long-term ratings. Nowadays, short-term ratings are commonly used.[citation needed]

Corporate credit ratings

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Main article: Bond credit rating

Credit ratings can address a corporation's financial instruments i.e. debt security such as a bond, but also the corporations itself. Ratings are assigned by credit rating agencies, the largest of which are Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch Ratings. They use letter designations such as A, B, C. Higher grades are intended to represent a lower probability of default.

Agencies do not attach a hard number of probability of default to each grade, preferring descriptive definitions such as: "the obligor's capacity to meet its financial commitment on the obligation is extremely strong," or "less vulnerable to non-payment than other speculative issues…" (Standard and Poors' definition of an AAA-rated and a BB-rated bond respectively).[7] However, some studies have estimated the average risk and reward of bonds by rating. One study by Moody's[8][9] claimed that over a "5-year time horizon" bonds it gave its highest rating (Aaa) to had a "cumulative default rate" of 0.18%, the next highest (Aa2) 0.28%, the next (Baa2) 2.11%, 8.82% for the next (Ba2), and 31.24% for the lowest it studied (B2). (See "Default rate" in "Estimated spreads and default rates by rating grade" table to right.) Over a longer period, it stated "the order is by and large, but not exactly, preserved".[10]

Another study in Journal of Finance calculated the additional interest rate or "spread" corporate bonds pay over that of "riskless" US Treasury bonds, according to the bonds' rating. (See "Basis point spread" in table to right.) Looking at rated bonds for 1973–89, the authors found a AAA-rated bond paid 43 "basis points" (or 43/100 of a percentage point) over a US Treasury bond (so that it would yield 3.43% if the Treasury yielded 3.00%). A CCC-rated "junk" (or speculative) bond, on the other hand, paid over 7% (724 basis points) more than a Treasury bond on average over that period.[11][12]

Different rating agencies may use variations of an alphabetical combination of lowercase and uppercase letters, with either plus or minus signs or numbers added to further fine-tune the rating (see colored chart). The Standard & Poor's rating scale uses uppercase letters and pluses and minuses.[13] The Moody's rating system uses numbers and lowercase letters as well as uppercase.

While Moody's, S&P and Fitch Ratings control approximately 95% of the credit ratings business,[14] they are not the only rating agencies. DBRS's long-term ratings scale is somewhat similar to Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings with the words high and low replacing the + and −. It goes as follows, from excellent to poor: AAA, AA (high), AA, AA (low), A (high), A, A (low), BBB (high), BBB, BBB (low), BB (high), BB, BB (low), B (high), B, B (low), CCC (high), CCC, CCC (low), CC (high), CC, CC (low), C (high), C, C (low) and D. The short-term ratings often map to long-term ratings though there is room for exceptions at the high or low side of each equivalent.[15]

S&P, Moody's, Fitch and DBRS are the only four ratings agencies that are recognized by the European Central Bank (ECB) for determining collateral requirements for banks to borrow from the central bank. The ECB uses a first, best rule among the four agencies that have the designated ECAI status,[16] which means that it takes the highest rating among the four agencies – S&P, Moody's, Fitch and DBRS – to determine haircuts and collateral requirements for borrowing. Ratings in Europe have been under close scrutiny, particularly the highest ratings given to countries like Spain, Ireland and Italy, because they affect how much banks can borrow against sovereign debt they hold.[17]

A. M. Best rates from excellent to poor in the following manner: A++, A+, A, A−, B++, B+, B, B−, C++, C+, C, C−, D, E, F, and S. The CTRISKS rating system is as follows: CT3A, CT2A, CT1A, CT3B, CT2B, CT1B, CT3C, CT2C and CT1C. All these CTRISKS grades are mapped to one-year probability of default.

Under the EU Credit Rating Agency Regulation (CRAR), the European Banking Authority has developed a series of mapping tables that map ratings to the "Credit Quality Steps" (CQS) as set out in regulatory capital rules and map the CQS to short run and long run benchmark default rates. These are provided in the table below:


Moody's Standard & Poor's Fitch Ratings Rating description EU Credit Quality Step[18][19][20] Long run benchmark default rates (mid value)[21] Short run benchmark default rates (trigger level)[21]
Long-term Short-term Long-term Short-term Long-term Short-term
Aaa P-1 AAA A-1+ AAA F1+ Prime 1 0.1% 1.2%
Aa1 AA+ AA+ High grade
Aa2 AA AA
Aa3 AA− AA−
A1 A+ A-1 A+ F1 Upper medium grade 2 0.25% 1.3%
A2 A A
A3 P-2 A− A-2 A− F2
Baa1 BBB+ BBB+ Lower medium grade 3 1.0% 3.0%
Baa2 P-3 BBB BBB F3
Baa3 BBB− A-3 BBB−
Ba1 Not Prime BB+ B BB+ B Non-investment grade
speculative 		4 7.5% 12.4%
Ba2 BB BB
Ba3 BB− BB−
B1 B+ B+ Highly speculative 5 20% 35%
B2 B B
B3 B− B−
Caa1 CCC+ C CCC+ C Substantial risks 6 34% not applicable
Caa2 CCC CCC
Caa3 CCC− CCC−
Ca CC CC Extremely speculative
C C Default imminent
C RD D RD D In default
/ SD D
/ D /

References

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  1. ^ Kronwald, Christian (2009). Credit Rating and the Impact on Capital Structure. Norderstedt, Germany: Druck und Bingdung. p. 3. ISBN 978-3-640-57549-7.
  2. ^ "Country risk survey - previous ranking from previous quarter, Euromoney Country risk". Euromoney.com. Archived from the original on 2018-10-01. Retrieved 2018-01-16.
  3. ^ "Country Risk Full Results": Originally a bi-annual survey which monitors the political and economic stability of 185 sovereign countries, according to ratings agencies and market experts. The information is compiled from Risk analysts; poll of economic projections; on GNI; World Bank’s Global Development Finance data; Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch IBCA; OECD consensus groups (source: ECGD); the US Exim Bank and Atradius UK; heads of debt syndicate and loan syndications; Atradius, London Forfaiting, Mezra Forfaiting and WestLB.
  4. ^ Wright, Chris (9 March 2017). "Singapore leads the world in sovereign risk". Euromoney. Retrieved 26 May 2022.
  5. ^ "Country risk survey". Euromoney.com. Archived from the original on 2018-10-01. Retrieved 2018-01-16.
  6. ^ "Country Risk". ambest.com. Retrieved 2011-08-08.
  7. ^ Sinclair, Timothy J. (2005). The New Masters of Capital: American Bond Rating Agencies and the Politics of Creditworthiness. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press. p. 36, Bond Rating Symbols and Definitions, Table 2. ISBN 978-0-80147491-0. Retrieved 21 September 2013.
  8. ^ Cantor, R., Hamilton, D.T., Kim, F., and Ou, S., 2007 Corporate default and recovery rates. 1920–2006, Special Comment: Moody's investor Service, June Report 102071, 1-48 page 24
  9. ^ cited by authors Herwig Langohr and Patricia Langohr
  10. ^ Langohr, Herwig; Patricia Langohr (2010). The Rating Agencies and Their Credit Ratings: What They Are, How They Work. Wiley. p. 48. ISBN 9780470714355.
  11. ^ Cantor, Richard; Packer, Frank (Summer–Fall 1994). "The credit rating industry" (PDF). Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review. Federal Reserve Bank of New York. p. 10. ISSN 0147-6580. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2011-04-29.
  12. ^ from Altman, Edward I "Measuring Corporate Bond Mortality and Performance" Journal of Finance, (September 1989) pp. 909–22
  13. ^ de Servigny, Arnaud; Olivier Renault (2004). The Standard & Poor's Guide to Measuring and Managing Credit Risk. McGraw-Hill. ISBN 978-0-07-141755-6.
  14. ^ Alessi, Christopher. "The Credit Rating Controversy. Campaign 2012". Council on Foreign Relations. Archived from the original on 27 July 2013. Retrieved 29 May 2013.
  15. ^ "DBRS: Short-Term and Long-Term Rating Relationships" (PDF). DBRS. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2011-04-28. Retrieved 2013-06-28.
  16. ^ "External credit assessment institution source (ECAIs)". European Central Bank. Archived from the original on 3 February 2014. Retrieved 21 January 2014.
  17. ^ Jones, Marc (19 December 2013). "First crunch date in Europe's ratings calendar is April 11". Reuters. Retrieved 21 January 2014.
  18. ^ Joint Committee of the European Supervisory Authorities. "Amended Mapping of Moody's Investors Service credit assessments under the Standardised Approach". Retrieved 2019-06-21.
  19. ^ Joint Committee of the European Supervisory Authorities. "Amended Mapping of Fitch Ratings' credit assessments under the Standardised Approach". Retrieved 2019-06-21.
  20. ^ Joint Committee of the European Supervisory Authorities. "Amended Mapping of S&P Global Ratings' credit assessments under the Standardised Approach". Retrieved 2019-06-21.
  21. ^ a b European Commission, based on a draft from the Joint Committee of the European Supervisory Authorities (7 October 2016). "COMMISSION IMPLEMENTING REGULATION (EU) 2016/1799 of 7 October 2016 laying down implementing technical standards with regard to the mapping of credit assessments of external credit assessment institutions for credit risk in accordance with Articles 136(1) and 136(3) of Regulation (EU) No 575/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council". Retrieved 2019-06-21.
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