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Russian involvement in regime change

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Russian involvement in regime change describes activities by the Russian government to replace foreign regimes through overt or covert interventions since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.

During the Soviet Union

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Main article: Soviet involvement in regime change
See also: Foreign interventions by the Soviet Union

Previous to the 1991, the Soviet Union intervened in multiple governments primarily in Asia, acquiring the territory of Tuva and making Mongolia into a satellite state.[1]

During World War II, the Soviet Union helped overthrow many Nazi German or Imperial Japanese puppet regimes, including in East Asia and much of Europe.

It expanded the geographic scope of its actions beyond its traditional area of operations. One study indicated that the United States and the Soviet Union/Russia engaged in 117 interventions, or one in nine of every competitive foreign elections at the executive national-level from 1946 to 2000, with the Soviet Union/Russia accounting for 36 interventions.[2][3][4]

The Soviet Union ratified the UN Charter in 1945, the preeminent international law document,[5] which legally bound the Soviet government to the Charter's provisions, including Article 2(4), which prohibits the threat or use of force in international relations, except in very limited circumstances.[6] Therefore, any legal claim advanced to justify regime change by a foreign power carries a particularly heavy burden.[7]

1991–present

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1991–1992: Georgia

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Main articles: 1991–1992 Georgian coup d'état and Georgian Civil War

In December 1991–January 1992, first Georgian president Zviad Gamsakhurdia was removed from office by the coup staged by the National Guard and a group of paramilitary organizations, which captured the Council of Ministers building after a fierce fighting. The Russian (former Soviet) Transcaucasian Military District, with its headquarters in Georgian capital Tbilisi, was allegedly involved in this coup. On 15 December 1992, the Russian newspaper Moskovskiye Novosti published a letter from Colonel-General Sufian Bepayev, who was then the vice-commander of the Transcaucasian Military District, who claimed to have brought logistical and military help to the rebels starting on 28 December 1991. According to that letter, lacking the interference of the Russian soldiers, "Gamsakhurdia supporters would have had a guaranteed victory." This version of the facts revealed also an involvement by Russian soldiers during the battle around the Broadcasting Tower of Tbilisi on 28 December.[8] It has been claimed that the goal of Russian involvement was to counter Gamsakhurdia's refusal to join the Russian-led Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).[9] Gamsakhurdia loyalists abandoned Tbilisi and retreated to western Georgia (Mingrelia), later launching a counter-attack in October 1993. On 20 October 1993, Russian President Boris Yeltsin sent 2,000 Russian troops to Georgia to aid the post-coup Georgian government of Eduard Shevardnadze against Gamsakhurdia supporters. In mid-October, the addition of Russian weapons, supply-line security, and technical assistance turned the tide against Gamsakhurdia.[10] However, the Russian government claimed neutrality, saying that the purpose of sending troops was to protect an important railway in Georgia. This was an effective political screen. From November 2, following an agreement between Eduard Shevardnadze and Russian leadership,[11] a Russian marine battalion was deployed to Georgian city of Poti in order to secure critical transport infrastructure,[12] including railroads and ports under the direction of Admiral Eduard Baltin, commander of the Black Sea Fleet.[13] In order to obtain this support, Shevardnadze had to agree to Georgian accession to CIS and the establishment of Russian military installations within Georgia.[14]

1993: Azerbaijan

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Main article: 1993 Azerbaijani coup d'état

Russia allegedly backed the coup against first Azerbaijani President Abulfaz Elchibey. The 709th Brigade of Azerbaijani army rebelled against Elchibey and after defeating the attack of the government forces, launched an offensive on capital Baku, armed with materiel left by the Russian 104th Airbourne Division. The coup ousted Elchibey and installed Heydar Aliyev as president.[15][16][17]

1994: Chechnya

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Main article: Battle of Grozny (November 1994)

In 1994, the Provisional Council of the Chechen Republic launched a coup against Dzhokhar Dudayev, the President of Russia's breakaway Chechen republic of Ichkeria. The Russian government officially denied military involvement in the operation, but openly supported the Provisional Council of the Chechen Republic.[18] Moscow clandestinely supplied opposition forces with financial support, military equipment and mercenaries. Russia also suspended all civilian flights to Grozny while the aviation and border troops set up a military blockade of the republic, and eventually unmarked Russian aircraft began combat operations over Chechnya. Provisional Council, who were joined by Russian troops, launched a clandestine but badly organized assault on Grozny in mid-October 1994, followed by a second, larger attack on 26–27 November 1994. Despite Russian support, both attempts were unsuccessful. Dudayev loyalists succeeded in capturing some 20 Russian Army regulars and about 50 other Russian citizens who were clandestinely hired by the Russian FSK state security organization to fight for the Provisional Council forces.[19] On 29 November, Russian President Boris Yeltsin issued an ultimatum to all warring factions in Chechnya, ordering them to disarm and surrender. When the government of Chechnya refused, Yeltsin ordered the Russian army to invade the region.

2014: Ukraine

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Main articles: Russo-Ukrainian War, Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation, and War in Donbas (2014–2022)
The location of Ukraine

In 2014, Ukraine had the Revolution of Dignity and overthrew Viktor Yanukovych. Following a Russian invasion on 27 February 2014 and the armed seizure and dissolution of the Crimean Parliament 6 March 2014, the Russian-installed replacement cabinet voted to "enter into the Russian Federation with the rights of a subject of the Russian Federation" and later held a referendum asking the people of these regions whether they wanted to join Russia as a federal subject, or if they wanted to restore the 1992 Crimean constitution and Crimea's status as a part of Ukraine.[20] Though passed with an overwhelming majority, the results are contested by most.[21][22][23] Crimea and Sevastopol formally declared independence as the Republic of Crimea and requested that they be admitted as constituents of the Russian Federation.[24] On 18 March 2014, Russia and Crimea signed a treaty of accession of the Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol in the Russian Federation, though the United Nations General Assembly voted in favor of a non-binding statement to oppose Russia's annexation of the peninsula.[25]

Pro-Russian hackers launched a series of cyber attacks over several days to disrupt the May 2014 Ukrainian presidential election, releasing hacked emails, attempting to alter vote tallies, and delaying the result with distributed denial-of-service attacks.[26][27] Malware that would have displayed a graphic declaring far-right candidate Dmytro Yarosh the electoral winner was removed from Ukraine's Central Election Commission less than an hour before polls closed. Despite this, Channel One Russia "reported that Mr. Yarosh had won and broadcast the fake graphic, citing the election commission's website, even though it had never appeared there."[26][28] According to Peter Ordeshook: "These faked results were geared for a specific audience in order to feed the Russian narrative that has claimed from the start that ultra-nationalists and Nazis were behind the revolution in Ukraine."[26]

All these events set up the stage for the war in Donbas.

2016: Montenegro

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Main article: Montenegrin coup plot

On the eve of 16 October 2016, the day of the parliamentary election in Montenegro, a group of 20 Serbian and Montenegrin citizens, including the former head of Serbian Gendarmery Bratislav Dikić, were arrested;[29][30] some of them, along with other persons, including two Russian citizens, were later formally charged by the authorities of Montenegro with an attempted coup d'état. In early November 2016, Montenegro's special prosecutor for organised crime and corruption, Milivoje Katnić, alleged that "a powerful organization" that comprised about 500 people from Russia, Serbia and Montenegro was behind the coup plot.[31] In February 2017, Montenegrin officials accused the Russian 'state structures' of being behind the attempted coup, which allegedly envisaged an attack on the Parliament of Montenegro and assassination of prime minister Milo Đukanović.[32][33]

The details about the coup plot were first made public at the end of October 2016 by Serbia's prime minister Aleksandar Vučić, whose public statement on the matter stressed the role of Serbia's law enforcers, especially the Serbian Security Intelligence Agency, in thwarting it.[34][35] The statement was immediately followed by an unscheduled visit to Belgrade by Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of Russia's Security Council.[34]

According to the prime minister Duško Marković′s statements made in February 2017, the government received definitive information about the coup being prepared on 12 October 2016, when a person involved in the plot gave away the fallback scenario of his Russian minders; this information was also corroborated by the security services of NATO member countries, who helped the Montenegrin government to investigate the plot.[36] One of the charged, Predrag Bogićević from Kragujevac, a veteran and leader of the Ravna Gora Movement, said that Saša Sinđelić informed him on a possible attack on Serbs who participated in the October 16th protest. Bogićević, in Serbian detention, said through his lawyer that there was no talks whatsoever on a coup and no mentions of Đukanović.[37]

The Moscow–based Russian Institute for Strategic Studies (RISS), which has close ties to Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), was mentioned by mass media[who?] as one of the organisations involved in devising the coup plot; in early November 2017, Russian president Vladimir Putin sacked the RISS director, Leonid P. Reshetnikov, a ranking veteran officer of the SVR.[38][39]

2020: Mali

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Main article: 2020 Malian coup d'état

President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta faced wave of protests in Mali since 5 June 2020 calling for his resignation from office caused by corruption and economic hardship. On 18 August 2020, the rebelling elements of Malian Armed Forces staged a coup against Keïta, arresting dozens of high ranking government officials and declaring Assimi Goïta as interim head of state. There are several reports suggesting that Russia was behind the coup in Mali as two coup plotters Colonel Malick Diaw and Sadio Camara were said to be trained in Russia before staging a coup.[40][41]

2022: Ukraine

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Main article: 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

In July 2022, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that Russia's goal was to overthrow the pro-Western government in Ukraine.[42]

2023: Moldova

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Main article: 2023 Moldovan coup d'état attempt allegations

On 9 February 2023, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukrainian intelligence had intercepted plans by Russian intelligence to overthrow the democratically elected government of Moldova to establish control over the country.[43] The allegations were subsequently corroborated by Moldovan intelligence. On 13 February, the president of Moldova Maia Sandu said Moldovan authorities have confirmed the existence of the plot first revealed by Zelenskyy, and revealed details of the alleged plot.[44] On 21 February, Moldovan authorities warned that Russia may attempt to seize the Chișinău International Airport in order to transfer troops for a coup,[45] stating that they were preparing for multiple scenarios.[46] On 10 March, the Moldovan authorities claimed that Russia-linked individuals were plotting an insurrection,[47] and on 12 March, Moldovan police claimed that they had arrested members of a Moscow-orchestrated network trying to destabilize Moldova,[48] who had been promised $10,000 to organize "mass disorder".[49]

2023: Sudan

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Main article: 2023 Sudan conflict

There were reports that Russian state sponsored paramilitary Wagner Group has dispatched a plane to supply the Rapid Support Forces during the clash.[50]

2024: United States

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On October 25, 2024, U.S. intelligence agencies revealed that a viral video claiming to show mail-in ballots being destroyed in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, was a fabricated hoax orchestrated by Russia. This disinformation effort was designed to bolster Donald Trump's campaign while undermining Kamala Harris. The video, which featured an unknown individual shredding ballots, was part of a larger Russian strategy to create mistrust in the integrity of the U.S. electoral process.[51]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ Dullin, Sabine; Forestier-Peyrat, Étienne; Lin, Yuexin Rachel; Shimazu, Naoko (2021-12-30). "2 From autonomy to an Asian revolution: Koreans and Buriat-Mongols in the Russian imperial revolution and the Soviet new imperialism, 1917-1926". The Russian Revolution in Asia: From Baku to Batavia. Routledge. ISBN 978-1-000-47224-0. Before the Second World War, the Bolsheviks' new imperialism extended the informal empire only to Mongolia and Tuva... Mongolia and Tannu-Tuva became the first stable entities in the informal Soviet empire.
  2. ^ Levin, Dov H. (June 2016). "When the Great Power Gets a Vote: The Effects of Great Power Electoral Interventions on Election Results". International Studies Quarterly. 60 (2): 189–202. doi:10.1093/isq/sqv016. For example, the U.S. and the USSR/Russia have intervened in one of every nine competitive national level executive elections between 1946 and 2000.
  3. ^ Levin, Dov H. (June 2016). "When the Great Power Gets a Vote: The Effects of Great Power Electoral Interventions on Election Results". International Studies Quarterly. 60 (2): 189–202. doi:10.1093/isq/sqv016.
  4. ^ Levin, Dov H. (7 September 2016). "Sure, the U.S. and Russia often meddle in foreign elections. Does it matter?". The Washington Post. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
  5. ^ Mansell, W. M.; Openshaw, Karen (2014-07-18). International Law: A Critical Introduction. Bloomsbury Publishing Plc. ISBN 978-1-78225-229-0.
  6. ^ "All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state." United Nations, "Charter of the United Nations," Article 2(4), http://www.un.org/en/sections/un-charter/chapter-i/index.html Archived 28 October 2017 at the Wayback Machine
  7. ^ Fox, Gregory, "Regime Change," 2013, Oxford Public International Law, Max Planck Encyclopedia of Public International Law, Sections C(12) and G(53)–(55), Archived 4 November 2016 at the Wayback Machine
  8. ^ Darchiashvili, David (1997). "The Russian Military Presence in Georgia: The Parties, Attitudes and Prospects". Caucasian Regional Studies. 1 (2).
  9. ^ Golyaev, Aleksey (3 January 1992). "President on Peaceful Solution". Tass.
  10. ^ "SHEVARDNADZE'S COMEBACK CREDITED TO RUSSIA". The Washington Post.
  11. ^ "Russian Units Kill Georgian Rebels in Clash". The New York Times. Associated Press. 1993-11-02. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2018-12-15.
  12. ^ Baev, Pavel K. (1996-05-03). The Russian Army in a Time of Troubles. SAGE. ISBN 9781849206891.
  13. ^ Mcdowall, Liam. "Russian Troops to Land at Georgian Ports". AP NEWS. Retrieved 2018-12-15.
  14. ^ Allison, Roy (November 1994). "Peacekeeping in the Soviet Successor States" (PDF). Chaillot Papers. 18: 8.
  15. ^ "Freedom in the World 2009 - Azerbaijan". Freedom House. 2009.
  16. ^ Altstadt, Audrey L. (2017). Frustrated Democracy in Post-Soviet Azerbaijan. Columbia University Press. p. 56. doi:10.7312/alts70456. ISBN 978-0-231-70456-4. JSTOR 10.7312/alts70456.
  17. ^ Cornell, Svante E. (2015). Azerbaijan Since Independence. Routledge. p. 78. ISBN 978-1-317-47620-7. The evidence that Surat Husyenov's coup was engineered in Moscow is as incontrovertible as it gets.
  18. ^ "Moscow-backed Chechen opposition launches attack on capital". The Guardian. 26 November 1994. Archived from the original on 23 August 2013. Retrieved 10 December 2017.
  19. ^ The battle(s) of Grozny Archived September 27, 2011, at the Wayback Machine
  20. ^ "Ukraine crisis: Crimea parliament asks to join Russia". BBC News. 6 March 2014. Retrieved 27 June 2015.
  21. ^ "OSCE". Retrieved 27 June 2015.
  22. ^ "Report on the human rights situation in Ukraine". Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights. 15 April 2014.
  23. ^ Jacobs, Harrison (11 April 2014). "The UN's Scathing Crimea Report Suggests Russia May Have Rigged Secession Vote". Business Insider. Archived from the original on 2 May 2014.
  24. ^ 16 March 2014, David Herszenhornmarch, The New York Times, "Crimea Votes to Secede From Ukraine as Russian Troops Keep Watch."
  25. ^ "Backing Ukraine’s territorial integrity, UN Assembly declares Crimea referendum invalid". UN News Centre. 27 March 2014. Retrieved 28 March 2014.
  26. ^ a b c Clayton, Mark (17 June 2014). "Ukraine election narrowly avoided 'wanton destruction' from hackers". The Christian Science Monitor. Retrieved 16 August 2017.
  27. ^ Watkins, Ali (14 August 2017). "Obama team was warned in 2014 about Russian interference". Politico. Retrieved 16 August 2017.
  28. ^ Kramer, Andrew E.; Higgins, Andrew (16 August 2017). "In Ukraine, a Malware Expert Who Could Blow the Whistle on Russian Hacking". The New York Times. Retrieved 16 August 2017.
  29. ^ "Slučaj "državni udar" i Đukanovićev "stari recept"". B92.net. 28 October 2016.
  30. ^ Podgorica, Associated Press in (November 6, 2016). "Montenegrin prosecutor says Russian nationalists behind alleged coup plot". the Guardian.
  31. ^ Montenegro PM Accuses Opposition Over 'Plot to Kill Him' Balkan Insight, 10 November 2016.
  32. ^ Farmer, Ben (19 February 2017). "Russia plotted to overthrow Montenegro's government by assassinating Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic last year, according to senior Whitehall sources". The Telegraph. Retrieved 21 February 2017.
  33. ^ "Kremlin rejects claims Russia had role in Montenegro coup plot". The Guardian. 20 February 2017. Retrieved 21 February 2017.
  34. ^ a b Совбезными усилиями: Осложнение российско-сербских отношений потребовало вмешательства Николая Патрушева КоммерсантЪ, 28 October 2016.
  35. ^ "Crnu Goru trese suluda priča o puču, ruskim špijunima, četnicima, Putinu i Vučiću. Naš reporter analizira sve". 27 November 2016. Retrieved 21 February 2018.
  36. ^ Q&A: Duško Marković, the Prime Minister Stuck Between Putin and Trump in the Balkans Time, 16 February 2017.
  37. ^ "Predrag Bogićević o puču u Crnoj Gori: Išao da štiti Srbe, ne da ruši režim". www.novosti.rs. Retrieved 21 February 2018.
  38. ^ Доброхотов, Роман (2017-03-24). "Кремлевский спрут. Часть 2. Как ГРУ пыталось организовать переворот в Черногории". The Insider (in Russian).
  39. ^ Организаторы переворота в Черногории участвовали в аннексии Крыма – СМИ Корреспондент.net, 21 November 2016.
  40. ^ Muvunyi, Fred (2020-08-26). "Was Russia behind the coup in Mali?". Deutsche Welle. Retrieved 2020-11-26.
  41. ^ Obaji, Philip Jr. (August 21, 2020). "Russia Trained the Militants Who Just Seized Power in Mali". The Daily Beast – via www.thedailybeast.com.
  42. ^ "Russia will help Ukrainians 'get rid of regime', says Lavrov". Al Jazeera. 25 July 2022.
  43. ^ Rankin, Jennifer (2023-02-09). "Zelenskiy pushes for EU membership and raises fears of Russian designs on Moldova". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2023-02-22.
  44. ^ "Has Russia been planning a coup in Ukraine's neighbour, Moldova? Here's what we know". ABC News. 2023-02-14. Retrieved 2023-02-14.
  45. ^ Cole, Brendan (22 February 2023). "Putin Changes Position on Moldova Amid Airport Capture Rumor". newsweek.com. Newsweek. Retrieved 23 February 2023.
  46. ^ "Moldova said that Russia has several scenarios for destabilizing the situation in the country". odessa-journal.com. Odessa Journal. 21 February 2023. Retrieved 23 February 2023.
  47. ^ Bertrand, Natasha (10 March 2023). "Russia-linked individuals working to trigger insurrection against Moldovan government, US believes". cnn.com. CNN. Retrieved 12 March 2023.
  48. ^ "Moldova Smashes Pro-Moscow Subversion Ring: Police". barrons.com. Barrons. Retrieved 12 March 2023.
  49. ^ OBREJA, AUREL; MCGRATH, STEPHEN (12 March 2023). "Moldova police say they foiled Russia-backed unrest plot". thehill.com. The Hill. Retrieved 12 March 2023.
  50. ^ Elbagir, Nima; Mezzofiore, Gianluca; Qiblawi, Tamara (20 April 2023). "Exclusive: Evidence emerges of Russia's Wagner arming militia leader battling Sudan's army". CNN. Retrieved 20 April 2023. The Russian mercenary group Wagner has been supplying Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) with missiles to aid their fight against the country's army, Sudanese and regional diplomatic sources have told CNN. The sources said the surface-to-air missiles have significantly buttressed RSF paramilitary fighters and their leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo
  51. ^ Meyer, Josh (27 October 2024). "US intelligence says Russia is behind video of ballots being destroyed in Pennsylvania". USA Today. Retrieved 2 November 2024.
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