Opinion polling for the 2012 Taiwanese presidential election
(Redirected from Opinion polling for the Republic of China presidential election, 2012)
Nationwide public opinion polling have been commissioned in the leadup to the Taiwanese presidential election of 2012 by various organisations, including the Apple Daily, China Times, Global Views Magazine, Liberty Times, Era News and TVBS News. Election forecasts have also been released by various organisations, including the National Chengchi University, China Times, "Gallup" Market Research (not part of the global Gallup organization),[1] Global Views Magazine, and TVBS News, through the use of different forecasting models.
It is important to note that in terms of political orientation, sources such as TVBS News, United Daily News, and China Times are considered to be pro-unification, while sources such as Liberty Times are considered to be pro-independence.
Opinion polling
[edit]Two-way race
[edit]| Poll Source | Date of completion | Ma Ying-jeou | Tsai Ing-wen | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Progressive Party | April 26, 2011 | 36.23% | 41.16% | 22.61% |
| Trendspotting Survey and Research | April 26, 2011 | 33.45% | 43.35% | 23.20% |
| Master Survey and Research | April 26, 2011 | 33.81% | 43.11% | 23.08% |
| All Dimension Survey and Research | April 26, 2011 | 35.87% | 42.93% | 21.20% |
| Era News | April 26, 2011 | 35.86% | 41.97% | 22.17% |
| China Times | April 27, 2011 | 33.0% | 33.4% | 33.6% |
| United Daily News | April 27, 2011 | 36% | 37% | 26% |
| Apple Daily | April 27, 2011 | 29.38% | 56.21% | 14.41% |
| TVBS News | April 27, 2011 | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Shih Hsin University | May 7, 2011 | 44.2% | 38.3% | 17.5% |
| Global Views Survey and Research | May 10, 2011 | 38.9% | 38.6% | 22.6% |
| Apple Daily | May 13, 2011 | 53.76% | 31.97% | 14.27% |
| Master Survey and Research | May 16, 2011 | 40.6% | 41.3% | 18.1% |
| China Times | May 18, 2011 | 34.9% | 26.9% | 37.7% |
| United Daily News | May 18, 2011 | 45% | 27% | 27% |
| Liberty Times | May 19, 2011 | 29.45% | 31.55% | 39.00% |
| TVBS News | May 19, 2011 | 45% | 44% | 10% |
| Liberty Times | May 24, 2011 | 31.34% | 34.57% | 34.08% |
| TVBS News | May 30, 2011 | 46% | 42% | 10% |
| Democratic Progressive Party | June 9, 2011 | 40.0% | 41.3% | 18.7% |
| Apple Daily | June 14, 2011 | 43.02% | 46.27% | 10.71% |
| Global Views Survey and Research | June 15, 2011 | 41.2% | 36.3% | 22.5% |
| TVBS News | June 20, 2011 | 44% | 39% | 16% |
| Era News | June 20, 2011 | 34.90% | 37.35% | 27.76% |
| Liberty Times | June 28, 2011 | 27.12% | 31.66% | 41.22% |
| Trend Survey and Research | June 30, 2011 | 42.4% | 38.8% | 18.8% |
| TVBS News | July 7, 2011 | 44% | 36% | 17% |
| Era News | July 9, 2011 | 38.6% | 33.1% | 28.4% |
| I-tel Survey and Research | July 12, 2011 | 49.64% | 50.36% | — |
| United Daily News | July 13, 2011 | 43% | 37% | 20% |
| Global Views Survey and Research | July 15, 2011 | 37.3% | 37.2% | 25.5% |
| Apple Daily | July 15, 2011 | 42.57% | 40.80% | 16.63% |
| Trend Survey and Research | July 17, 2011 | 41.6% | 36.3% | 22.1% |
| TVBS News | July 21, 2011 | 45% | 38% | 16% |
| Liberty Times | July 26, 2011 | 36.39% | 34.29% | 29.32% |
| Democratic Progressive Party | July 27, 2011 | 49.9% | 50.1% | — |
| China Times | August 3, 2011 | 33.5% | 29.2% | 37.3% |
| Era News | August 5, 2011 | 33.1% | 30.1% | 36.8% |
| I-tel Survey and Research[permanent dead link] | August 11, 2011 | 50.45% | 49.55% | — |
| Apple Daily | August 12, 2011 | 44.27% | 33.73% | 22.00% |
| United Daily News Archived 2012-05-16 at the Wayback Machine | August 14, 2011 | 44% | 36% | 18% |
| TVBS News | August 15, 2011 | 46% | 39% | 14% |
| US Congress Report | August 15, 2011 | 37% | 37% | 26% |
| Global Views Survey and Research | August 16, 2011 | 39.6% | 38.1% | 22.3% |
| Trend Survey and Research | August 24, 2011 | 45.7% | 40.2% | 14.1% |
| TVBS News | August 30, 2011 | 46% | 37% | 17% |
| Focus Survey and Research Archived 2012-04-07 at the Wayback Machine | August 31, 2011 | 41.1% | 39.4% | 19.5% |
| Era News | September 3, 2011 | 36.9% | 30.4% | 32.8% |
| Liberty Times | September 7, 2011 | 36.87% | 33.92% | 29.21% |
| Democratic Progressive Party | September 9, 2011 | 44.0% | 43.6% | 12.4% |
| China Times | September 9, 2011 | 43.6% | 33.7% | 22.7% |
| Apple Daily | September 9, 2011 | 30.69% | 51.29% | 18.02% |
| TVBS News | September 14, 2011 | 48% | 37% | 16% |
| United Daily News Archived 2011-09-23 at the Wayback Machine | September 14, 2011 | 46% | 39% | 14% |
| Liberty Times | September 16, 2011 | 36.26% | 36.70% | 27.04% |
| Focus Survey and Research Archived 2012-04-07 at the Wayback Machine | September 16, 2011 | 42.8% | 34.6% | 22.6% |
| Apple Daily | September 17, 2011 | 42.59% | 33.92% | 23.49% |
| Era News | September 17, 2011 | 41.5% | 32.7% | 25.7% |
| China Times | September 18, 2011 | 41% | 36% | 23% |
| Global Views Survey and Research | September 19, 2011 | 39.2% | 38.3% | 22.5% |
| Democratic Progressive Party | September 19, 2011 | 42.8% | 44.3% | 12.9% |
| TVBS News | September 20, 2011 | 47% | 35% | 18% |
| TVBS News | September 22, 2011 | 47% | 37% | 17% |
| TVBS News | September 28, 2011 | 46% | 38% | 17% |
| Focus Survey and Research | September 28, 2011 | 43.2% | 35.9% | 11.9% |
| China Times | October 2, 2011 | 41.7% | 37.1% | 21.2% |
| China Times | October 3, 2011 | 42.3% | 35.3% | 22.4% |
| China Times | October 4, 2011 | 42.7% | 35.8% | 21.5% |
| China Times | October 5, 2011 | 43.2% | 34.8% | 22.0% |
| China Times | October 6, 2011 | 42.4% | 34.1% | 23.5% |
| TVBS News | October 6, 2011 | 45% | 38% | 17% |
| China Times | October 7, 2011 | 43.0% | 34.5% | 22.5% |
| China Times | October 8, 2011 | 42.0% | 34.1% | 23.9% |
| Trend Survey and Research | October 8, 2011 | 42.9% | 33.9% | 23.2% |
| China Times | October 9, 2011 | 40.9% | 34.1% | 25.0% |
| China Times | October 10, 2011 | 41.0% | 32.4% | 26.5% |
| China Times | October 11, 2011 | 41.4% | 33.3% | 25.3% |
| Focus Survey and Research Archived 2012-04-07 at the Wayback Machine | October 12, 2011 | 40.6% | 32.0% | 27.4% |
| China Times | October 12, 2011 | 42.5% | 32.5% | 25.0% |
| TVBS News | October 12, 2011 | 43% | 38% | 19% |
| China Times | October 13, 2011 | 43.3% | 33.3% | 23.4% |
| China Times | October 14, 2011 | 43.5% | 33.8% | 22.7% |
| United Daily News Archived 2011-11-18 at the Wayback Machine | October 15, 2011 | 46% | 36% | 18% |
| China Times | October 15, 2011 | 42.7% | 36.3% | 21.0% |
| Taipei University of Education | October 15, 2011 | 36.5% | 30.6% | 32.9% |
| China Times | October 16, 2011 | 42.4% | 35.1% | 22.5% |
| China Times | October 17, 2011 | 43.1% | 35.5% | 21.4% |
| China Times | October 18, 2011 | 43.6% | 35.5% | 20.9% |
| China Times | October 19, 2011 | 44.2% | 35.7% | 20.1% |
| China Times | October 20, 2011 | 44.1% | 36.0% | 19.9% |
| TVBS News | October 20, 2011 | 45% | 39% | 16% |
| China Times | October 21, 2011 | 44.6% | 36.1% | 19.3% |
| China Times | October 22, 2011 | 44.6% | 36.6% | 18.8% |
| China Times | October 23, 2011 | 43.9% | 38.4% | 17.7% |
| China Times | October 24, 2011 | 43.2% | 38.6% | 18.2% |
| China Times | October 25, 2011 | 44.1% | 38.6% | 17.3% |
| Liberty Times | October 26, 2011 | 35.60% | 36.10% | 28.30% |
| TVBS News | October 26, 2011 | 44% | 39% | 17% |
| China Times | October 26, 2011 | 44.2% | 39.6% | 16.2% |
| China Times | October 27, 2011 | 44.0% | 38.7% | 17.3% |
| China Times | October 28, 2011 | 43.6% | 39.0% | 17.4% |
| China Times | October 29, 2011 | 44.4% | 38.5% | 17.1% |
| Decision Making Research | October 29, 2011 | 37.3% | 40.1% | 22.6% |
| China Times | October 30, 2011 | 44.2% | 39.0% | 16.8% |
| TVBS News | October 31, 2011 | 46% | 39% | 15% |
| China Times | November 3, 2011 | 43.5% | 39.7% | 16.8% |
| TVBS News | November 3, 2011 | 47% | 42% | 10% |
| Focus Survey and Research Archived 2012-04-07 at the Wayback Machine | November 7, 2011 | 37.8% | 36.1% | 26.1% |
| China Times | November 7, 2011 | 45.4% | 41.0% | 13.6% |
| China Times | November 8, 2011 | 44.1% | 40.9% | 15.0% |
| Liberty Times | November 9, 2011 | 37.17% | 36.29% | 26.54% |
| TVBS News | November 10, 2011 | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| China Times | November 11, 2011 | 42.9% | 38.9% | 18.2% |
| United Daily News Archived 2011-11-14 at the Wayback Machine | November 12, 2011 | 45% | 39% | 16% |
| China Times | November 14, 2011 | 42.4% | 39.2% | 18.4% |
| TVBS News | November 16, 2011 | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| China Times | November 17, 2011 | 45.0% | 39.3% | 15.7% |
| China Times | November 22, 2011 | 46.1% | 41.7% | 12.2% |
| Liberty Times | November 23, 2011 | 36.58% | 39.61% | 23.81% |
Three-way race
[edit]| Poll Source | Date of Completion | Ma Ying-jeou | Tsai Ing-wen | James Soong | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Era News | July 1, 2011 | 35.8% | 33.9% | 8.6% | 21.6% |
| Trend Survey and Research | July 17, 2011 | 35.8% | 32.3% | 10.0% | 21.9% |
| TVBS News | July 21, 2011 | 38% | 36% | 13% | 12% |
| China Times | August 3, 2011 | 33.0% | 28.6% | 10.3% | 28.0% |
| Era News | August 5, 2011 | 29.3% | 27.7% | 15.4% | 27.6% |
| Apple Daily | August 12, 2011 | 38.82% | 27.82% | 18.95% | 14.41% |
| United Daily News Archived 2012-05-16 at the Wayback Machine | August 14, 2011 | 38% | 31% | 15% | 16% |
| TVBS News | August 15, 2011 | 39% | 35% | 16% | 9% |
| Global Views Survey and Research | August 16, 2011 | 35.1% | 33.9% | 14.0% | 17.0% |
| Trend Survey and Research | August 24, 2011 | 37.2% | 31.9% | 16.7% | 14.2% |
| TVBS News | August 30, 2011 | 40% | 32% | 17% | 12% |
| Focus Survey and Research Archived 2012-04-07 at the Wayback Machine | August 31, 2011 | 33.1% | 32.4% | 12.7% | 21.8% |
| Era News | September 3, 2011 | 35.2% | 28.6% | 14.3% | 21.9% |
| Liberty Times | September 7, 2011 | 31.46% | 28.23% | 14.68% | 25.63% |
| I-tel Survey and Research Archived 2016-03-04 at the Wayback Machine | September 8, 2011 | 41.38% | 40.89% | 17.73% | — |
| China Times | September 1, 2011 | 38.8% | 31.5% | 13.6% | 16.1% |
| TVBS News | September 14, 2011 | 42% | 34% | 14% | 10% |
| United Daily News Archived 2011-09-23 at the Wayback Machine | September 14, 2011 | 40% | 32% | 13% | 14% |
| Liberty Times | September 16, 2011 | 31.61% | 31.61% | 13.44% | 23.34% |
| Focus Survey and Research Archived 2012-04-07 at the Wayback Machine | September 16, 2011 | 33.4% | 27.9% | 11.4% | 27.4% |
| Apple Daily | September 17, 2011 | 39.70% | 29.64% | 16.21% | 14.45% |
| Era News | September 17, 2011 | 36.3% | 28.5% | 11.2% | 24.1% |
| China Times | September 18, 2011 | 39% | 32% | 11% | 18% |
| Global Views Survey and Research | September 11, 2011 | 35.8% | 36.0% | 10.0% | 18.2% |
| Democratic Progressive Party | September 11, 2011 | 36.2% | 37.4% | 12.4% | 14.0% |
| TVBS News | September 20, 2011 | 43% | 32% | 14% | 11% |
| TVBS News | September 22, 2011 | 42% | 32% | 15% | 11% |
| TVBS News | September 28, 2011 | 40% | 33% | 14% | 13% |
| Focus Survey and Research | September 28, 2011 | 33.6% | 29.8% | 11.5% | 16.9% |
| Trend Survey and Research | September 28, 2011 | 36.2% | 28.4% | 9.7% | 25.7% |
| China Times | October 2, 2011 | 39.5% | 36.0% | 11.7% | 12.8% |
| China Times | October 3, 2011 | 38.7% | 34.7% | 11.1% | 15.5% |
| China Times | October 4, 2011 | 38.5% | 35.1% | 12.1% | 14.3% |
| China Times | October 5, 2011 | 38.4% | 33.5% | 12.8% | 15.3% |
| China Times | October 6, 2011 | 37.5% | 32.2% | 13.7% | 16.6% |
| Master Survey and Research | October 6, 2011 | 37.3% | 36.1% | 12.6% | 13.9% |
| TVBS News | October 6, 2011 | 40% | 35% | 13% | 13% |
| China Times | October 7, 2011 | 37.5% | 31.7% | 13.6% | 17.2% |
| China Times | October 8, 2011 | 37.7% | 31.9% | 13.2% | 17.2% |
| Trend Survey and Research | October 8, 2011 | 36.2% | 28.4% | 9.7% | 25.7% |
| China Times | October 1, 2011 | 37.9% | 31.6% | 13.4% | 17.1% |
| China Times | October 10, 2011 | 38.0% | 30.6% | 13.2% | 18.2% |
| China Times | October 11, 2011 | 38.9% | 31.4% | 12.0% | 17.7% |
| Focus Survey and Research Archived 2012-04-07 at the Wayback Machine | October 12, 2011 | 37.0% | 30.5% | 13.3% | 19.2% |
| China Times | October 12, 2011 | 40.0% | 31.0% | 11.4% | 17.6% |
| TVBS News | October 12, 2011 | 38% | 34% | 15% | 13% |
| China Times | October 13, 2011 | 39.7% | 30.3% | 12.6% | 17.4% |
| China Times | October 14, 2011 | 39.0% | 31.4% | 11.7% | 17.9% |
| United Daily News Archived 2011-11-18 at the Wayback Machine | October 15, 2011 | 43% | 32% | 11% | 14% |
| China Times | October 15, 2011 | 39.5% | 32.7% | 11.3% | 16.5% |
| Taipei University of Education | October 15, 2011 | 34.0% | 26.4% | 10.2% | 29.4% |
| China Times | October 16, 2011 | 39.9% | 32.5% | 10.3% | 17.3% |
| China Times | October 17, 2011 | 40.9% | 32.4% | 11.0% | 15.7% |
| China Times | October 18, 2011 | 42.0% | 33.7% | 9.4% | 14.9% |
| China Times | October 11, 2011 | 43.7% | 33.7% | 9.1% | 13.5% |
| China Times | October 20, 2011 | 42.0% | 34.8% | 9.3% | 13.8% |
| TVBS News | October 20, 2011 | 43% | 35% | 12% | 10% |
| I-tel Survey and Research Archived 2016-04-07 at the Wayback Machine | October 21, 2011 | 43.72% | 42.95% | 13.33% | — |
| China Times | October 21, 2011 | 42.3% | 35.1% | 9.7% | 12.9% |
| China Times | October 22, 2011 | 42.3% | 35.8% | 9.4% | 12.5% |
| China Times | October 23, 2011 | 41.6% | 36.3% | 10.6% | 11.5% |
| China Times | October 24, 2011 | 40.6% | 36.9% | 10.6% | 11.9% |
| China Times | October 25, 2011 | 42.1% | 37.0% | 10.1% | 10.8% |
| Liberty Times | October 26, 2011 | 31.91% | 30.28% | 11.13% | 26.67% |
| TVBS News | October 26, 2011 | 42% | 33% | 13% | 12% |
| China Times | October 26, 2011 | 42.1% | 37.5% | 9.5% | 10.9% |
| China Times | October 27, 2011 | 42.2% | 37.4% | 8.5% | 11.9% |
| China Times | October 28, 2011 | 41.3% | 38.0% | 8.3% | 12.4% |
| China Times | October 21, 2011 | 42.1% | 37.0% | 9.3% | 11.6% |
| Decision Making Research | October 21, 2011 | 32.2% | 35.9% | 13.7% | 18.2% |
| China Times | October 30, 2011 | 41.3% | 37.1% | 10.0% | 11.6% |
| China Times | October 31, 2011 | 41.8% | 36.0% | 10.4% | 11.8% |
| TVBS News | October 31, 2011 | 39% | 33% | 9% | 20% |
| China Times | November 1, 2011 | 41.3% | 35.8% | 11.0% | 11.9% |
| China Times | November 2, 2011 | 42.0% | 33.8% | 11.4% | 12.8% |
| Focus Survey and Research | November 2, 2011 | 38.0% | 30.7% | 9.7% | 21.6% |
| TVBS News | November 3, 2011 | 38% | 35% | 14% | 13% |
| China Times | November 3, 2011 | 41.2% | 35.3% | 11.3% | 12.2% |
| Master Survey and Research Archived 2016-03-04 at the Wayback Machine | November 4, 2011 | 39.5% | 38.6% | 12.9% | 9.1% |
| China Times | November 4, 2011 | 42.0% | 35.6% | 10.6% | 11.8% |
| China Times | November 5, 2011 | 41.4% | 37.3% | 10.1% | 11.2% |
| China Times | November 6, 2011 | 41.7% | 38.2% | 10.4% | 9.7% |
| Gallup Market Research | November 6, 2011 | 32.4% | 25.6% | 8.2% | 33.8% |
| Focus Survey and Research Archived 2012-04-07 at the Wayback Machine | November 7, 2011 | 35.0% | 33.2% | 13.1% | 18.7% |
| China Times | November 7, 2011 | 42.3% | 39.1% | 9.7% | 8.9% |
| China Times | November 8, 2011 | 42.0% | 39.3% | 9.3% | 9.4% |
| Liberty Times | November 1, 2011 | 33.58% | 32.97% | 11.17% | 22.27% |
| China Times | November 1, 2011 | 41.4% | 38.5% | 10.3% | 9.8% |
| TVBS News | November 10, 2011 | 39% | 38% | 9% | 14% |
| China Times | November 10, 2011 | 41.6% | 38.1% | 10.7% | 9.6% |
| China Times | November 11, 2011 | 41.6% | 38.3% | 9.5% | 10.6% |
| United Daily News Archived 2011-11-14 at the Wayback Machine | November 12, 2011 | 41% | 36% | 9% | 13% |
| China Times | November 14, 2011 | 41.2% | 39.0% | 9.4% | 10.4% |
| China Times | November 15, 2011 | 42.4% | 38.1% | 9.5% | 10.0% |
| TVBS News | November 16, 2011 | 39% | 39% | 9% | 12% |
| China Times | November 16, 2011 | 43.3% | 37.9% | 9.1% | 9.7% |
| China Times | November 17, 2011 | 43.4% | 37.6% | 9.4% | 9.6% |
| Taipei University of Education | November 18, 2011 | 37.2% | 30.2% | 7.7% | 24.9% |
| China Times | November 18, 2011 | 43.2% | 37.6% | 10.0% | 9.2% |
| Master Survey and Research Archived 2016-03-04 at the Wayback Machine | November 18, 2011 | 38.7% | 39.6% | 11.7% | 10.0% |
| Decision Making Research | November 20, 2011 | 33.5% | 40.1% | 11.2% | 15.2% |
| China Times | November 21, 2011 | 44.7% | 36.8% | 9.7% | 8.8% |
| China Times | November 22, 2011 | 43.6% | 38.7% | 9.8% | 7.9% |
| Liberty Times | November 23, 2011 | 33.39% | 35.79% | 9.80% | 21.02% |
| Focus Survey and Research Archived 2012-04-07 at the Wayback Machine | November 23, 2011 | 39.0% | 35.8% | 9.9% | 14.8% |
| China Times | November 23, 2011 | 42.0% | 39.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% |
| TVBS News | November 23, 2011 | 40% | 38% | 7% | 15% |
| China Times | November 24, 2011 | 40.7% | 40.3% | 10.3% | 8.7% |
| China Times | November 25, 2011 | 42.6% | 39.2% | 9.3% | 8.9% |
| United Daily News Archived 2011-12-01 at the Wayback Machine | November 27, 2011 | 41% | 35% | 10% | 14% |
| China Times | November 28, 2011 | 42.7% | 37.6% | 9.5% | 10.2% |
| YouGov Market Research | November 28, 2011 | 34% | 26% | 10% | 30% |
| China Times | November 29, 2011 | 43.0% | 35.2% | 8.4% | 13.4% |
| China Times | November 30, 2011 | 41.8% | 35.1% | 8.3% | 14.8% |
| Focus Survey and Research | November 30, 2011 | 36.7% | 32.1% | 10.0% | 21.2% |
| TVBS News | December 1, 2011 | 40% | 34% | 7% | 19% |
| China Times | December 2, 2011 | 43.5% | 36.1% | 7.0% | 13.4% |
| China Times | December 2, 2011 | 43.4% | 37.5% | 7.7% | 11.4% |
| TVBS News | December 3, 2011 | 38% | 32% | 12% | 18% |
| United Daily News Archived 2011-12-06 at the Wayback Machine | December 3, 2011 | 39% | 32% | 10% | 17% |
| Apple Daily | December 3, 2011 | 47.04% | 36.90% | 12.11% | 3.95% |
| China Times | December 3, 2011 | 39.9% | 32.6% | 8.9% | 18.6% |
| Focus Survey and Research Archived 2012-02-26 at the Wayback Machine | December 5, 2011 | 39.0% | 32.9% | 7.0% | 21.2% |
| China Times | December 5, 2011 | 43.7% | 37.2% | 8.3% | 10.8% |
| Shih Hsin University | December 5, 2011 | 33.9% | 28.6% | 8.3% | 30.7% |
| China Times | December 6, 2011 | 42.0% | 36.9% | 9.8% | 11.3% |
| China Times | December 7, 2011 | 43.2% | 36.3% | 9.0% | 11.5% |
| Taipei University of Education | December 7, 2011 | 35.5% | 27.7% | 7.2% | 29.6% |
| TVBS News | December 7, 2011 | 41% | 37% | 8% | 14% |
| Master Survey and Research Archived 2016-03-04 at the Wayback Machine | December 8, 2011 | 35.4% | 35.9% | 10.8% | 17.9% |
| China Times | December 8, 2011 | 43.9% | 35.9% | 8.9% | 11.3% |
| China Times | December 9, 2011 | 43.2% | 36.4% | 8.7% | 11.7% |
| TVBS News | December 10, 2011 | 39% | 39% | 6% | 16% |
| China Times | December 10, 2011 | 42.7% | 35.1% | 7.1% | 15.1% |
| United Daily News Archived 2012-01-07 at the Wayback Machine | December 10, 2011 | 40% | 33% | 10% | 16% |
| United Daily News Archived 2012-01-07 at the Wayback Machine | December 12, 2011 | 42% | 35% | 10% | 13% |
| China Times | December 12, 2011 | 41.3% | 36.8% | 8.4% | 13.5% |
| Focus Survey and Research | December 12, 2011 | 36.3% | 36.0% | 5.9% | 20.1% |
| China Times | December 13, 2011 | 40.1% | 39.1% | 8.0% | 12.8% |
| TVBS News | December 14, 2011 | 40% | 38% | 7% | 15% |
| China Times | December 14, 2011 | 39.7% | 38.7% | 8.2% | 13.4% |
| Liberty Times | December 15, 2011 | 34.50% | 33.26% | 10.81% | 21.43% |
| China Times | December 15, 2011 | 41.8% | 37.1% | 8.2% | 13.8% |
| China Times | December 16, 2011 | 41.8% | 36.7% | 8.2% | 14.2% |
| TVBS News | December 17, 2011 | 40% | 36% | 7% | 17% |
| China Times | December 17, 2011 | 38.5% | 37.7% | 7.7% | 16% |
| United Daily News Archived 2012-01-07 at the Wayback Machine | December 17, 2011 | 41% | 33% | 10% | 15% |
| China Times | December 19, 2011 | 41.9% | 37.3% | 7.2% | 13.6% |
| Focus Survey and Research | December 19, 2011 | 36.5% | 33.4% | 8.5% | 21.6% |
| China Times | December 20, 2011 | 42.2% | 36.8% | 7.4% | 13.6% |
| China Times | December 21, 2011 | 42.3% | 37.1% | 6.6% | 14.0% |
| Taipei University of Education | December 21, 2011 | 40.2% | 32.2% | 5.5% | 22.1% |
| China Times | December 22, 2011 | 42.3% | 36.0% | 7.0% | 14.7% |
| Liberty Times | December 22, 2011 | 35.77% | 35.05% | 9.70% | 19.48% |
| TVBS | December 22, 2011 | 41% | 35% | 8% | 16% |
| China Times | December 23, 2011 | 42.2% | 36.2% | 6.8% | 14.8% |
| Master Survey and Research | December 24, 2011 | 39.5% | 39.1% | 11.1% | 10.3% |
| Decision Making Research Archived 2012-02-03 at the Wayback Machine | December 24, 2011 | 38.3% | 40.4% | 7.3% | 14.0% |
| China Times | December 26, 2011 | 41.3% | 37.1% | 7.5% | 14.1% |
| China Times | December 26, 2011 | 41.6% | 36.8% | 6.8% | 14.8% |
| Trendspotting Survey and Research | December 26, 2011 | 33.3% | 29.0% | 7.0% | 30.7% |
| TVBS News | December 27, 2011 | 44% | 38% | 6% | 12% |
| China Times | December 27, 2011 | 40.7% | 38.0% | 7.7% | 13.6% |
| China Times | December 28, 2011 | 41.3% | 38.5% | 6.6% | 13.6% |
| TVBS News | December 29, 2011 | 44% | 35% | 7% | 13% |
| Focus Survey and Research Archived 2012-01-09 at the Wayback Machine | December 29, 2011 | 37.6% | 31.5% | 6.6% | 24.4% |
| Focus Survey and Research | December 30, 2011 | 35.9% | 32.6% | 7.3% | 24.4% |
| Taipei University of Education | December 30, 2011 | 42.2% | 35.7% | 6.2% | 15.9% |
| Focus Survey and Research Archived 2012-02-25 at the Wayback Machine | December 31, 2011 | 37.1% | 33.3% | 6.9% | 22.7% |
| Master Survey and Research Archived 2016-03-04 at the Wayback Machine | December 31, 2011 | 38.8% | 37.8% | 11.6% | 11.8% |
| Focus Survey and Research Archived 2012-04-17 at the Wayback Machine | January 1, 2011 | 37.2% | 33.1% | 7.2% | 22.5% |
| United Daily News Archived 2012-01-08 at the Wayback Machine | January 2, 2012 | 44% | 36% | 7% | 13% |
| China Times | January 2, 2012 | 39.5 | 36.5% | 5.8% | 18.2% |
| Focus Survey and Research Archived 2012-04-17 at the Wayback Machine | January 2, 2012 | 37.2% | 33.1% | 7.2% | 22.5% |
| TVBS News | January 2, 2012 | 45% | 37% | 6% | 13% |
| China Times | January 2, 2012 | 43.3% | 38.4% | 6.8% | 11.5% |
Television debates performance rating
[edit]Note that the percentages reflect the proportion of valid respondents who rated a particular candidate as performing the best during the presidential and vice-presidential television debates.
Presidential debates
[edit]| Forecast Source | Date of Release | Ma Ying-jeou | Tsai Ing-wen | James Soong | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China Times | December 3, 2011 | 31.7% | 29.8% | 13.6% | 24.9% |
| Apple Daily | December 3, 2011 | 47.61% | 35.49% | 14.37% | 2.53% |
| United Daily News Archived 2011-12-06 at the Wayback Machine | December 3, 2011 | 39% | 25% | 15% | 6% |
| TVBS News | December 3, 2011 | 30% | 27% | 20% | 23% |
| Shih Hsin University | December 3, 2011 | 30.5% | 31.0% | 14.5% | 24.1% |
| China Times | December 17, 2011 | 29.1% | 32.1% | 12.5% | 26.3% |
| United Daily News Archived 2012-01-07 at the Wayback Machine | December 17, 2011 | 36% | 29% | 17% | 4% |
| TVBS News | December 17, 2011 | 28% | 33% | 15% | 24% |
| Focus Survey and Research | December 19, 2011 | 33.9% | 37.7% | 14.1% | 14.3% |
| I-tel Survey and Research Archived 2020-08-03 at the Wayback Machine | December 20, 2011 | 40.10% | 50.61% | 9.29% | － |
Vice-presidential debates
[edit]| Forecast Source | Date of Release | Wu Den-yih | Su Jia-chyuan | Lin Ruey-shiung | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China Times | December 10, 2011 | 35.3% | 33.7% | 4.4% | 26.6% |
| TVBS News | December 10, 2011 | 38% | 39% | 6% | 17% |
| United Daily News Archived 2012-01-07 at the Wayback Machine | December 10, 2011 | 40% | 30% | 9% | 5% |
| Focus Survey and Research | December 12, 2011 | 33.8% | 38.4% | 6.5% | 21.3% |
Election forecasting
[edit]Polling firm forecasts
[edit]| Forecast Source | Date of Release | Voter Turnout | Tsai Ing-wen | Ma Ying-jeou | James Soong |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Views Survey and Research | June 15, 2011 | 75.3% | 51.8% | 48.2% | — |
| Global Views Survey and Research | June 22, 2011 | — | 53.2% | 46.8% | — |
| Democratic Progressive Party | July 27, 2011 | 75% | 50.1% | 49.9% | — |
| Global Views Survey and Research | August 16, 2011 | — | 53% | 47% | — |
| Global Views Survey and Research | October 12, 2011 | — | 52% | 48% | — |
| China Times | November 1, 2011 | — | 41% | 47% | 12% |
| Gallup Market Research | November 6, 2011 | — | 43.1% | 44.2% | 12.8% |
| China Times | November 10, 2011 | — | 42.2% | 46.0% | 11.8% |
| TVBS News | November 10, 2011 | 76.8% | 47.3% | 45.8% | 6.9% |
| Gallup Market Research Archived 2011-12-02 at the Wayback Machine | December 1, 2011 | － | 42.16% | 46.13% | 11.71% |
| TVBS News | December 7, 2011 | 78.9% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| Gallup Market Research Archived 2012-04-21 at the Wayback Machine | December 14, 2011 | － | 41.6% | 48.2% | 10.3% |
| TVBS News | December 22, 2011 | 80.3% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| TVBS News | December 29, 2011 | 77.9% | 45% | 50% | 5% |
| Democratic Progressive Party | January 2, 2012 | 79% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
Prediction market forecasts
[edit]Note that as the election forecast reports released by the National Chengchi University are based on models that involve the use of prediction markets as raw data, as opposed to opinion polling, the percentages may not add up to 100%.[2]
| Forecast Source | Date of Release | Tsai Ing-wen | Ma Ying-jeou | James Soong |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Chengchi University | April 27, 2011 | 50.5% | 49.9% | — |
| National Chengchi University | May 4, 2011 | 50.6% | 47.9% | — |
| National Chengchi University | May 20, 2011 | 51.3% | 48.0% | — |
| National Chengchi University | June 13, 2011 | 50.9% | 48.4% | — |
| National Chengchi University | August 1, 2011 | 46.8% | 49.4% | — |
| National Chengchi University | August 8, 2011 | 46.3% | 48.2% | — |
| National Chengchi University | August 15, 2011 | 45.7% | 48.5% | — |
| National Chengchi University | August 29, 2011 | 49.4% | 50.3% | — |
| National Chengchi University | September 9, 2011 | 47.9% | 51.4% | — |
| National Chengchi University | September 27, 2011 | 47.2% | 49.5% | — |
| National Chengchi University | October 11, 2011 | 46.2% | 51.5% | — |
| National Chengchi University | October 21, 2011 | 49.2% | 49.6% | — |
| National Chengchi University | October 26, 2011 | 49.6% | 49.6% | — |
| National Chengchi University | November 1, 2011 | 48.9% | 48.4% | 4.4% |
| National Chengchi University | November 7, 2011 | 49.5% | 48.3% | 7.5% |
| National Chengchi University | November 11, 2011 | 49.9% | 46.1% | 7.5% |
| National Chengchi University | November 15, 2011 | 49.5% | 46.1% | 8.4% |
| National Chengchi University | November 17, 2011 | 50.0% | 46.1% | 8.1% |
| National Chengchi University | November 22, 2011 | 48.6% | 44.1% | 8.2% |
| National Chengchi University | November 28, 2011 | 50.0% | 43.2% | 10.1% |
| National Chengchi University | December 2, 2011 | 49.9% | 41.9% | 11.7% |
| National Chengchi University | December 4, 2011 | 50.1% | 42.1% | 10.8% |
| National Chengchi University | December 7, 2011 | 50.1% | 42.6% | 11.2% |
| National Chengchi University | December 11, 2011 | 50.3% | 41.6% | 10.9% |
| National Chengchi University | December 16, 2011 | 51.7% | 41.4% | 9.1% |
| National Chengchi University | December 18, 2011 | 51.9% | 41.6% | 8.6% |
| National Chengchi University | December 21, 2011 | 51.3% | 42.0% | 8.3% |
| National Chengchi University Archived 2012-02-22 at the Wayback Machine | December 26, 2011 | 50.4% | 43.0% | 7.7% |
| National Chengchi University Archived 2012-02-22 at the Wayback Machine | December 29, 2011 | 50.5% | 44.1% | 7.4% |
| National Chengchi University | January 2, 2012 | 50.3% | 43.6% | 10.1% |
| National Chengchi University | January 3, 2012 | 49.8% | 42.6% | 10.7% |
Election forecast maps
[edit]| Forecast Source | National Chengchi University | National Chengchi University | National Chengchi University |
| Date of Release | September 9, 2011 | September 27, 2011 | November 11, 2011 |
| Forecast Map |  |
 |
|
| Date of Release | November 17, 2011 | December 16, 2011 | December 21, 2011 |
| Forecast Map |  |
 |
|
| Forecast Source | National Chengchi University[permanent dead link] | National Chengchi University[permanent dead link] | National Chengchi University[permanent dead link] |
| Date of Release | December 26, 2011 | January 2, 2012 | January 3, 2012 |
| Forecast Map |  |
|
|
| Legend | Municipalities, counties and cities where Tsai Ing-Wen is forecast to lead. Municipalities, counties and cities where Ma Ying-Jeou is forecast to lead. Municipalities, counties and cities where James Soong is forecast to lead.
| ||
References
[edit]- ^ Stewart, Chris (December 23, 2006). "Gallup vs Gallup Taiwan". Taipei Times. Retrieved January 11, 2012.
- ^ The Exchange of Future Events, The Center for Prediction Markets, National Chengchi University, November 17, 2011
External links
[edit]- Apple Daily Polls
- China Times Survey and Research Center
- Era News Survey Center
- Global Views Survey and Research Center
- Liberty Times
- TVBS News Poll Center
- United Daily Times
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 Taiwan portal |
