Opinion polling for the 2009 Norwegian parliamentary election
(Redirected from Opinion polling for the Norwegian parliamentary election, 2009)
Poll results for the Norwegian parliamentary elections that were held in Norway on 13–14 September 2009. The results are shown in chronological order, with the oldest poll at the top of the list and the newest poll at the bottom of the list.
Poll results
[edit]| Polling Firm | Date | Source | FrP | DNA | H | KrF | SV | Sp | V | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norstat | 2008-04 | [1] | 24.7% | 29.4% | 16.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 2.3% |
| Response Analyse | 2008-04 | [2] | 25.3% | 31.6% | 15.7% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 2.3% |
| TNS Gallup | 2008-04 | [3] | 23.5% | 31.6% | 18.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.3% |
| Norstat | 2008-05 | [4] | 30.8% | 26.6% | 17.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 0.8% |
| Response Analyse | 2008-05 | [5] | 24.8% | 28.8% | 19.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 1.9% |
| TNS Gallup | 2008-05 | [6] | 26.5% | 26.3% | 18.4% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 3.2% |
| Sentio-Norsk Statistikk | 2008-06 | [7] | 29.3% | 23.9% | 17.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% |
| Norstat | 2008-06 | [8] | 30.6% | 26.0% | 15.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.0% |
| Response Analyse | 2008-06 | [9] | 30.7% | 26.4% | 17.8% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 3.0% |
| TNS Gallup | 2008-06 | [10] | 28.3% | 30.3% | 16.5% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 2.5% |
| Norstat | 2008-07 | [11] | 30.7% | 28.1% | 16.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 3.7% |
| Norstat | 2008-08 | [12] | 32.1% | 26.2% | 16.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 2.6% |
| TNS Gallup | 2008-08 | [13] | 30.4% | 29.2% | 15.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 4.0% |
| Norstat | 2008-09 | [14] | 30.7% | 29.3% | 13.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 2.8% |
| Response Analyse | 2008-09 | [15] | 31.7% | 27.9% | 14.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 2.4% |
| Norstat | 2008-10 | [16] | 26.3% | 32.2% | 15.2% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 2.8% |
| Norstat | 2008-11 | [17] | 27.5% | 31.1% | 14.5% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 1.5% |
| TNS Gallup | 2008-12 | [18] | 21.6% | 32.4% | 16.7% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.1% |
| Response Analyse | 2008-12 | [19] | 21.5% | 32.5% | 18.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 0.9% |
| Opinion | 2008-12 | [20] | 25.1% | 27.5% | 19.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.1% |
| Norstat | 2008-12 | [21] | 25.7% | 30.7% | 17.1% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 1.2% |
| Sentio | 2008-12 | [22][permanent dead link] | 24.0% | 29.9% | 16.8% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 1.4% |
| Opinion | 2009-01 | [23] | 28.6% | 28.7% | 15.2% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 2.6% |
| Sentio | 2009-01 | [24] | 24.5% | 36.5% | 13.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.4% |
| Synovate | 2009-01 | [25] | 19.5% | 34.5% | 16.6% | 5.2% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.1% |
| Norstat | 2009-02 | [26] | 21.6% | 35.4% | 15.8% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% |
| Synovate | 2009-02 | [27] | 20.8% | 35.1% | 15.6% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 2.8% |
| Norstat | 2009-02 | [28] | 29.4% | 33.0% | 12.6% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 2.5% |
| In fact | 2009-03 | [29] | 27.2% | 32.2% | 13.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.4% |
| Norfakta | 2009-03 | [30] | 28.0% | 31.0% | 14.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.8% |
| Norstat | 2009-03 | [31] | 30.1% | 31.3% | 14.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 1.9% |
| Norstat | 2009-03 | [32] | 29.7% | 31.7% | 13.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.3% |
| Opinion | 2009-03 | [33] | 30.9% | 28.4% | 13.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 2.6% |
| Response Analyse | 2009-03 | [34] | 25.4% | 32.8% | 14.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 3.2% |
| Sentio | 2009-03 | [35] | 26.9% | 32.9% | 14.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.7% |
| Synovate | 2009-03 | [36] | 23.7% | 36.2% | 11.5% | 4.7% | 9.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.4% |
| TNB | 2009-03 | [37] | 27.4% | 32.4% | 13.9% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 2.7% |
| TNS Gallup/TV2 | 2009-03 | [38] | 24.7% | 35.5% | 15.6% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.6% |
| Sentio/BT | 2009-04-02 | [39] | 29.6% | 31.5% | 13.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 2.6% |
| TNS Gallup/TV2 | 2009-04-02 | [40] | 26.0% | 35.7% | 12.6% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% |
| Norstat/NRK | 2009-04-09 | [41] | 26.4% | 31.7% | 13.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 2.7% |
| In fact/VG | 2009-04-17 | [42] | 25.8% | 29.1% | 17.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.0% |
| Sentio/DN | 2009-04-17 | [43] | 28.4% | 29.7% | 13.9% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.0% |
| Norfakta/Nationen/Klassekampen | 2009-04-18 | [44] | 27.7% | 33.6% | 14.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 2.5% |
| Opinion/ANB | 2009-04-23 | [45] | 28.5% | 29.1% | 13.9% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 3.0% |
| Opinion/ANB | 2009-04-23 | [46] | 30.3% | 34.5% | 10.8% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 2.3% |
| Synovate/Dagbladet | 2009-04-25 | [47] | 25.2% | 35.2% | 14.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 2.1% |
| TNS Gallup/TV2 | 2009-05-04 | [48] | 24.2% | 33.0% | 14.3% | 5.3% | 8.9% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.2% |
| Norstat/NRK | 2009-05-07 | [49] | 27.7% | 34.1% | 11.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 1.5% |
| Norfakta/Nationen/Klassekampen | 2009-05-09 | [50] | 26.9% | 31.1% | 13.9% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.3% |
| Opinion/ANB | 2009-05-14 | [51] | 28.5% | 29.0% | 13.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 8.7% | 3.3% |
| Sentio/DN | 2009-05-15 | [52] | 30.3% | 31.5% | 13.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 3.0% |
| Response/Aftenposten | 2009-05-15 | [53] | 24.0% | 35.8% | 15.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 3.2% |
| Response/VG | 2009-05-15 | [54] | 25.9% | 33.3% | 15.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 2.5% |
| Response/Aftenposten | 2009-06-12 | [55] | 26.1% | 35.4% | 13.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 3.8% |
| Sentio/DN | 2009-06-13 | [56] | 29.3% | 23.9% | 17.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% |
| Norstat/Vårt Land | 2009-06-26 | [57] | 28.6% | 29.4% | 13.4% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 2.4% |
| Norfakta | 2009-07-06 | [58] | 29.8% | 32.6% | 13.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.4% |
Average polling
[edit]The following table gives the average of 10 monthly opinion polls (9 before December 2008 - Synovate, Opinion, Gallup, Sentio BT, Sentio DN, Norstat NRK, Norstat VL, Response, In fact and, from December 2008, Norfakta).[1][2]
| Party | Result, Parliam. election 2005 | Result, County elections 2007 | Aug 2008 | Sep 2008 | Oct 2008 | Nov 2008 | Dec 2008 | Jan 2009 | Feb 2009 | Mar 2009 | Apr 2009 | May 2009 | Jun 2009 | Jul 2009 | Aug 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 32.7% | 30.8% | 26.5% | 29.0% | 30.6% | 31.4% | 30.7% | 33.9% | 34.2% | 32.8% | 32.5% | 32.9% | 32.9% | 33.1% | 32.4% |
| Progress | 22.1% | 18.5% | 30.8% | 29.6% | 26.5% | 24.2% | 23.7% | 23.2% | 24.1% | 27.3% | 27.0% | 26.4% | 26.0% | 28.2% | 25.7% |
| Conservative | 14.1% | 18.8% | 16.3% | 15.4% | 16.1% | 15.9% | 17.4% | 16.1% | 15.1% | 13.8% | 13.9% | 13.8% | 13.5% | 12.9% | 13.8% |
| Socialist Left | 8.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% |
| Christian Democratic | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% |
| Centre | 6.5% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% |
| Liberal | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% |
| Red | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Others | 1.9% | 3.2% | 0.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% |
The following table gives the average of poll results through the electoral campaign, the last six weeks before the election.[1] The biggest surprise was the successful campaign of the Conservative Party, which saw a great increase in its poll results at the cost of the Progress Party, up until the election day.[3]
| Party | Week 32 | Week 33 | Week 34 | Week 35 | Week 36 | Week 37 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 32.7% | 31.9% | 32.1% | 33.0% | 32.0% | 33.4% |
| Progress | 26.2% | 26.4% | 26.5% | 23.7% | 23.7% | 23.0% |
| Conservative | 13.2% | 14.3% | 13.6% | 14.8% | 14.9% | 16.1% |
| Socialist Left | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% |
| Christian Democratic | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% |
| Centre | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% |
| Liberal | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% |
| Red | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% |
NRK polling
[edit]| Polls During the Campaign | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polling firm | Month | Lab. | Pro. | Con. | Soc. | Cen. | Chr. | Lib. | Red |
| Norstat NRK[4] | August 2008 | 26% | 30.6% | 15.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 1.7% |
| Norstat NRK[4] | September | 29.5% | 29.2% | 13.3% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 1.3% |
| Norstat NRK[4] | October | 32.5% | 26.3% | 15.2% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 1.5% |
| Norstat NRK[4] | November | 31.1% | 27.5% | 14.5% | 8.5% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 0.8% |
| Norstat NRK[4] | December | 30.7% | 25.9% | 17.1% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 1.2% |
| Norstat NRK[4] | January 2009 | 33.2% | 24.4% | 17.6% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 0.7% |
| Norstat NRK[4] | February | 35.4% | 21.6% | 15.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 1.3% |
| Norstat NRK[4] | March | 31.3% | 30.1% | 14.1% | 6.6% | 5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 0.8% |
| Norstat NRK[4] | April | 31.7% | 26.4% | 13.7% | 7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 1% |
| Norstat NRK[4] | May | 34.1% | 27.7% | 11.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 0.2% |
| Norstat NRK[4] | June | 33% | 29.7% | 12% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 0.8% |
| Norstat NRK[4] | July | 33.2% | 28.1% | 11.3% | 7.1% | 6% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 1.2% |
| Norstat NRK[4] | August | 33% | 25.1% | 13.6% | 7.1% | 6% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 0.8% |
| Norstat NRK[5] | September (9) | 35% | 24% | 13.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6% | 2.1% |
| Synovate NRK[6] | September (10) | 33.8% | 21.4% | 14.5% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 2.3% |
| Results[7] | Election day | 35.4% | 22.9% | 17.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 1.3% |
References
[edit]- ^ a b From the homepage of Professor of Political Science at the University of Oslo, Bernt Aardal in Norwegian
- ^ TV2, Partibarometeret in Norwegian
- ^ Sør-Trøndelag og Trondheim Høyre, "Historisk Høyre-valgkamp[permanent dead link]"
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m "Politiske meningsmålinger" (in Norwegian). NRK. December 2008 – August 2009. Retrieved November 28, 2009.
- ^ Haugland, Tor Helge; Bakken, Laila Ø. (September 9, 2009). "Dødt løp fem dager før valget" (in Norwegian). NRK. Retrieved November 28, 2009.
- ^ Knudsen, Sjur Øveråsen (September 12, 2009). "Rødgrønt på siste måling" (in Norwegian). NRK. Retrieved November 28, 2009.
- ^ "Valg 2009 Landsoversikt - Stortingsvalget" (in Norwegian). Regjeringen.no. Archived from the original on September 26, 2009. Retrieved September 15, 2009.