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2025 German federal election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Next German federal election
← 2021 by 28 September 2025[a] 2029 →
All 630 seats in the Bundestag
316 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Olaf Scholz and Gustavo Petro in New York 2024 (cropped).jpg
Friedrich_Merz_2024.jpg
Robert Habeck at Washington D.C..jpg
Leader Olaf Scholz[b] Friedrich Merz Robert Habeck[c]
Party SPD CDU/CSU Greens
Last election 25.7%, 206 seats 24.1%, 197 seats 14.8%, 118 seats
 
2020-02-14 Christian Lindner (Bundestagsprojekt 2020) by Sandro Halank–2.jpg
2019-09-01 Wahlabend Sachsen by Sandro Halank–039.jpg
Jan van Aken 2023 (cropped).jpg
Ines_Schwerdtner,_2023.jpg
Leader Christian Lindner Alice Weidel Jan van Aken &
Ines Schwerdtner
Party FDP AfD Left
Last election 11.4%, 91 seats 10.3%, 83 seats 4.9%, 39 seats
A map of Bundestag constituencies to be used at the next election.
Incumbent Government

Scholz cabinet
SPD–Green–FDP[d]



Federal elections in Germany will be held to elect the members of the 21st Bundestag. They are scheduled to be held on 28 September 2025.

However, in November 2024, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that he would submit a motion of confidence to the Bundestag on 15 January 2025. If the Bundestag does not give him a majority vote of confidence, he can propose a snap election to the President of Germany; this would then possibly take place in March in compliance with the constitutional deadlines. The opposition has demanded a motion of confidence be held immediately, which could lead to a snap election as early as January 2025.[1][2]

Background

[edit]

The Federal Cabinet recommended 28 September as the date of the election, which was approved by President Frank-Walter Steinmeier.[3] Following a government crisis, FDP leader Christian Lindner was dismissed from the incumbent government by Olaf Scholz on 6 November 2024, triggering the collapse of the coalition, and making a snap election likely to be held earlier in 2025.[4][5]

Electoral system

[edit]

Date assignment process

[edit]

The Basic Law and the Federal Election Act provide that federal elections must be held on a Sunday or on a national holiday[e] no earlier than 46 and no later than 48 months after the first sitting of a Bundestag, unless the Bundestag is dissolved earlier. The 20th and sitting Bundestag held its first sitting on 26 October 2021.[6] Therefore, the next election must take place on a Sunday between 31 August 2025 and 26 October 2025, with 28 September being scheduled.

Federal elections can be held earlier if the president of Germany dissolves the Bundestag and schedules a snap election. They may only do so under two possible scenarios described by the Basic Law.

  1. If the Bundestag fails to elect a chancellor with an absolute majority of its members on the 15th day after the first ballot of a chancellor's election, the president is free to either appoint the candidate who received a plurality of votes as chancellor or to dissolve the Bundestag (in accordance with Article 63, Section 4 of the Basic Law).
  2. If the chancellor loses a confidence motion, they may ask the president to dissolve the Bundestag. The president is free to grant or to deny the chancellor's request (in accordance with Article 68 of the Basic Law).

In both cases, federal elections would have to take place on a Sunday or national holiday no later than 60 days after the dissolution.[7][8][f] Under both scenarios, a snap election is not possible during a state of defence. Federal elections can also be held later, if a state of defence is declared. If a state of defence prohibits a scheduled federal election and prolongs a legislative period, new elections have to take place no later than six months after the end of the state of defence.

Changes to electoral system

[edit]

After the 2021 German federal election produced a Bundestag with 736 members – which made it the largest freely elected parliament in the world – renewed debate began over the system of awarding overhang and leveling seats in place since the 2013 election. The Scholz cabinet passed a reform law in March 2023 to fix the size of future Bundestags at 630 members. This is achieved by eliminating all overhang and leveling seats, as well as the constituency seat rule (Grundmandatsklausel) which awards full proportional representation to parties winning at least three constituency seats, even if they do not meet the five-percent threshold. Under the new legislation, a party's total number of seats will be determined solely by its share of party-list votes (Zweitstimmendeckung, "second vote coverage"). If a party wins more constituency seats in a state than it is proportionally entitled to in that state, it will only be awarded its entitled number of seats; a number of its constituency winners would be excluded from the Bundestag, in order of those that received the smallest vote shares. Parties representing minority groups are still exempt from the five-percent threshold.

The law was subject to constitutional challenges; the CSU and The Left, both of whom benefited from the previous system at the 2021 election, appealed to President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to refuse to sign it, although he did so after personally determining he believed it was constitutional.[9][10] Immediately after the law was promulgated in the Federal Law Journal on 13 June, both party organizations, as well as the government of Bavaria controlled by the CSU, filed formal complaints to the Federal Constitutional Court.[11][12] Hearings were held on 23 and 24 April 2024. On 30 July 2024, the court upheld the principle of second vote coverage, but ruled that the five-percent threshold without exceptions was unconstitutional.[13] According to the principle that electoral law should be settled at least one year prior to an election, the court reintroduced the constituency seat rule as an interim measure for the 2025 election.[13]

On 14 March 2024, a law entered into force changing the boundaries of the Bundestag constituencies. As a result of the 2023 electoral reform, the number of constituencies would remain at 299, but with Bavaria gaining one constituency (Memmingen – Unterallgäu), while Saxony-Anhalt consequently lost one constituency (Anhalt). Lübbenau was also moved from Dahme-Spreewald – Teltow-Fläming III to Elbe-Elster – Oberspreewald-Lausitz in order to comply with population requirements. Minor adjustments were made to two Thuringian constituencies to align with new municipal boundaries, while 14 further constituencies were redescribed or renamed, but without changing their boundaries.[14]

Political parties and leaders

[edit]
See also: List of political parties in Germany

The table below lists the parties represented in the 20th Bundestag.

Parties Leader(s) Leading candidate(s) Ideology Seats Status
Last election Before election
Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 		Saskia Esken
Lars Klingbeil 		Olaf Scholz Social democracy
206 / 736
207 / 733
 Governing coalition
Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 		Friedrich Merz Friedrich Merz[15] Christian democracy
197 / 736
196 / 733
 Opposition
Christian Social Union in Bavaria
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 		Markus Söder
Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 		Robert Habeck[g][16] Green politics
118 / 736
117 / 733
 Governing coalition
Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei 		Christian Lindner Christian Lindner[17] Liberalism
91 / 736
90 / 733
 Opposition
Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland 		Alice Weidel
Tino Chrupalla 		Alice Weidel[18] Right-wing populism
83 / 736
76 / 733
The Left
Die Linke 		Ines Schwerdtner
Jan van Aken 		— Democratic socialism
39 / 736
28 / 733
Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht 		Sahra Wagenknecht
Amira Mohamed Ali 		Sahra Wagenknecht Socialism
Cultural conservatism
0 / 736
10 / 733
Ungrouped SSW Christian Dirschauer — Danish minority interests
Frisian minority interests
1 / 736
1 / 733
AfD Matthias Helferich — —
0 / 736
1 / 733
Independent — — —
0 / 736
7 / 733

Members of Parliament standing down

[edit]
Name Party State Constituency Member since Ref.
Andreas Rimkus SPD North Rhine-Westphalia Düsseldorf II 2013 [19]
Peter Ramsauer CSU Bavaria Traunstein 1990 [20]
Renate Künast Green Berlin N/A 2002 [21]
Niels Annen SPD Hamburg Hamburg-Eimsbüttel 2005 [22]
Sarah Ryglewski SPD Bremen N/A 2017 [23]
Annette Widmann-Mauz CDU Baden-Württemberg Tübingen 1998 [24]
Yvonne Magwas CDU Saxony N/A 2013 [25]
Nadine Schön CDU Saarland St. Wendel 2009 [26]
Michelle Müntefering SPD North Rhine-Westphalia Herne – Bochum II 2013 [27]
Markus Grübel CDU Baden-Württemberg N/A 2002 [28]
Andreas Scheuer CSU Bavaria Passau 2002 [29]
Kai Gehring Green North Rhine-Westphalia N/A 2005 [30]
Sönke Rix SPD Schleswig-Holstein N/A 2005 [31]
Manuela Rottmann Green Bavaria N/A 2017 [32]
Volkmar Klein CDU North Rhine-Westphalia Siegen-Wittgenstein 2009 [33]
Paul Lehrieder CSU Bavaria Würzburg 2005 [34]
Christoph Hoffmann CDU Baden-Württemberg N/A 2017 [35]
Katrin Budde SPD Saxony-Anhalt N/A 2017 [36]
Dietmar Nietan SPD North Rhine-Westphalia N/A 2005 [37]
Michael Gerdes SPD North Rhine-Westphalia N/A 2009 [38]
Tabea Rößner Green Rhineland-Palatinate N/A 2009 [39]
Kordula Schulz-Asche Green Hesse N/A 2017 [34]
Erwin Rüddel CDU Rhineland-Palatinate N/A 2009 [40]
Heike Baehrens SPD Baden-Württemberg N/A 2013 [41]
Michael Roth SPD Hesse Werra-Meißner – Hersfeld-Rotenburg 1998 [42]
Thomas Hitschler SPD Rhineland-Palatinate Südpfalz 2013 [43]
Astrid Damerow CDU Schleswig-Holstein N/A 2017 [44]
Tobias Lindner Green Rhineland-Palatinate N/A 2011 [45]
Martin Rosemann SPD Baden-Württemberg N/A 2013 [46]
Sven-Christian Kindler Green Lower Saxony N/A 2017 [47]
Oliver Grundmann CDU Lower Saxony N/A 2013 [48]
Christine Aschenberg-Dugnus FDP Schleswig-Holstein N/A 2017 [34]
Maria Klein-Schmeink Green North Rhine-Westphalia N/A 2017 [49]
Dagmar Andres SPD North Rhine-Westphalia Euskirchen – Rhein-Erft-Kreis II 2021 [50]
Michael Grosse-Brömer CDU Lower Saxony Harburg 2002 [51]
Hermann Gröhe CDU North Rhine-Westphalia Neuss I 1994 [52]
Udo Schiefner SPD North Rhine-Westphalia N/A 2013 [53]
Max Straubinger CSU Bavaria N/A 1994 [54]
Bernd Westphal SPD Lower Saxony N/A 2013 [55]
Beate Walter-Rosenheimer Green Bavaria N/A 2012 [56]

Opinion polls

[edit]
Main article: Opinion polling for the 2025 German federal election
Local regression of polls conducted

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ The President of Germany has set the election date at 28 September 2025, but the election may be called earlier by the President if the Chancellor calls for a vote of confidence and loses it. In November 2024 the ruling “traffic light coalition” collapsed due to the withdrawal of the FDP over disagreements regarding the draft federal budget for 2025. Scholz plans to ask the Bundestag for a vote of confidence on 15 January 2025, which in case of failure will give the President the choice to dissolve the Bundestag and call early elections within 60 days.
  2. ^ Scholz is the incumbent Chancellor of Germany. The SPD's co-leaders are Saskia Esken and Lars Klingbeil.
  3. ^ prospected
  4. ^ Only SPD and Grüne remained in goverment following Christian Lindner's dismissal.
  5. ^ In Germany, with the exception of the German Unity Day, all holidays are determined on the state level, and because of that, they do not necessarily apply for all German states. Currently, legal holidays in all states are New Year's Day, Good Friday, Easter Monday, Labour Day, Ascension Day, Whit Monday, German Unity Day, First Christmas Day, and Second Christmas Day (Boxing Day).
  6. ^ Possibility 1 has not happened since 1949; possibility 2 has been used a total of three times (in 1972, 1982, and 2005).
  7. ^ prospected

References

[edit]
  1. ^ von der Burchard, Hans; Nöstlinger, Nette; Buchsteiner, Rasmus (6 November 2024). "Scholz sets stage for German snap election as government collapses". Politico. Retrieved 6 November 2024.
  2. ^ Bräutigam, Frank (7 November 2024). "Wie es nach dem Ampel-Aus rechtlich weitergeht". tagesschau.de (in German).
  3. ^ "Germany's president approves the date for next year's national election". Associated Press. Archived from the original on 2024-08-23. Retrieved 23 August 2024.
  4. ^ tagesschau.de. "Kanzler Scholz will im Januar Vertrauensfrage stellen". tagesschau.de (in German). Retrieved 2024-11-06.
  5. ^ von der Burchard, Hans; Nöstlinger, Nette; Buchsteiner, Rasmus (2024-11-06). "German government coalition collapses as Scholz sacks Finance Minister Lindner". Politico. Retrieved 2024-11-06.
  6. ^ "Nach der Bundestagswahl: Wie geht es jetzt weiter?" [After the general election: what's next]. RND (in German). 26 September 2021. Archived from the original on 27 September 2021. Retrieved 30 September 2021.
  7. ^ "Wahl zum 19. Deutschen Bundestag am 24. September 2017". Der Bundeswahlleiter. Archived from the original on 8 November 2020. Retrieved 26 September 2017.
  8. ^ Martin Fehndrich (26 February 2017). "Bundeskanzlerwahl". Wahlrecht.de. Archived from the original on 8 May 2022. Retrieved 26 September 2017.
  9. ^ "Steinmeier unterzeichnet Gesetz zur Wahlrechtsreform". Süddeutsche Zeitung (in German). 8 June 2023. Archived from the original on 8 June 2023. Retrieved 8 June 2023.
  10. ^ Kornmeier, Claudia (17 March 2023). "Was das neue Wahlrecht vorsieht". tagesschau.de (in German). Archived from the original on 8 June 2023. Retrieved 8 June 2023.
  11. ^ "Wahlrechtsreform: CSU und Freistaat Bayern klagen beim Bundesverfassungsgericht". Der Spiegel (in German). 14 June 2023. Archived from the original on 6 September 2023. Retrieved 6 September 2023.
  12. ^ Lehmann, Anna (16 June 2023). "Verkleinerung des Bundestages: Linke klagt gegen Wahlrechtsreform". Die Tageszeitung (in German). Archived from the original on 6 September 2023. Retrieved 6 September 2023.
  13. ^ a b Frank Bräutigam; Kolja Schwartz. "Bundesverfassungsgericht kippt das neue Wahlrecht in Teilen". tagesschau.de (in German). Archived from the original on 30 July 2024. Retrieved 2024-07-30.
  14. ^ "Wahlkreise". Die Bundeswahlleiterin. Archived from the original on 25 April 2024. Retrieved 25 April 2024.
  15. ^ "Merz wird Kanzlerkandidat der Union – Söder zieht sich zurück". Der Spiegel (in German). 2024-09-17. ISSN 2195-1349. Archived from the original on 2024-09-17. Retrieved 2024-09-17.
  16. ^ Deiß, Matthias. "This is how Habeck justifies his candidacy for chancellor". tagesschau.de (in German). Retrieved 2024-11-08.
  17. ^ "After the breakdown of the traffic light coalition - FDP leader Lindner wants to lead his party again as top candidate in the federal election". deutschlandfunk.de (in German). 2024-11-07. Retrieved 2024-11-08.
  18. ^ "Alice Weidel wird erste Kanzlerkandidatin der AfD". n-tv (in German). 27 September 2024. Retrieved 27 September 2024.
  19. ^ Alexander Esch (16 February 2024). "SPD in Düsseldorf: Andreas Rimkus kandidiert nicht mehr für den Bundestag". Bayerischer Rundfunk. Archived from the original on 2024-03-30.
  20. ^ Alexander Kain (8 February 2024). "Ex-Verkehrsminister Ramsauer (CSU) will 2025 nicht mehr für Bundestag kandidieren". Passauer Neue Presse. Archived from the original on 2024-02-08.
  21. ^ Felix Hackenbruch (8 July 2024). "„Es ist Zeit, um Platz für Jüngere zu machen": Renate Künast kündigt Rückzug aus der aktiven Politik an". Der Tagesspiegel. Archived from the original on 2024-07-08.
  22. ^ Markus Arndt (30 June 2024). "SPD-Staatssekretär tritt nicht mehr an: Niels Annen zieht sich aus der Politik zurück". Bild. Archived from the original on 2024-06-30.
  23. ^ Maren Schubart (9 July 2024). "Bremer SPD-Politikerin kündigt Rückzug aus dem Bundestag an". buten un binnen. Archived from the original on 2024-07-09.
  24. ^ Robert Roßmann (19 July 2024). "CDU: Annette Widmann-Mauz, Chefin der Frauen-Union, macht Schluss". Süddeutsche Zeitung. Archived from the original on 2024-07-20.
  25. ^ Ulrich Wolf (19 July 2024). "Bundestagsvizepräsidentin Magwas aus Sachsen zieht sich aus Politik zurück". Sächsische Zeitung. Archived from the original on 2024-07-19.
  26. ^ Daniel Kirch (8 July 2024). "Überraschende Ankündigung – CDU-Politikerin Nadine Schön verlässt 2025 den Bundestag". Saarbrücker Zeitung. Archived from the original on 2024-07-09.
  27. ^ Daniel Friedrich Sturm (11 June 2024). "Mehr Zeit für „Franz": Michelle Müntefering zieht sich aus dem Bundestag zurück". Der Tagesspiegel. Archived from the original on 2024-06-11.
  28. ^ Sylvia Gierlichs (16 September 2023). "Markus Grübel: Im nächsten Bundestag nicht mehr dabei". Nürtinger Zeitung. Archived from the original on 2023-09-23.
  29. ^ Konstantin König (29 January 2024). "Rückzug aus Bundespolitik: Andreas Scheuer tritt nicht mehr an". Bayerischer Rundfunk. Archived from the original on 2024-01-29.
  30. ^ Felix Hackenbruch (13 June 2024). "„Zeit, zu neuen Ufern aufzubrechen": Grüner Forschungspolitiker Gehring kündigt Rückzug aus Bundestag an". Der Tagesspiegel. Archived from the original on 2024-06-13.
  31. ^ Gernot Kühl (4 March 2024). "Nach 20 Jahren: SPD-Bundestagsabgeordneter Sönke Rix aus Eckernförde hört auf". Schleswig-Holsteinischer Zeitungsverlag. Archived from the original on 2024-03-04.
  32. ^ Mechthild Harting (1 May 2024). "Warum sich Manuela Rottmann aus der Politik zurückziehen will". Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. Archived from the original on 2024-05-01.
  33. ^ Hendrik Schulz (26 July 2023). "l Für Siegen-Wittgenstein im Bundestag: Volkmar Klein kandidiert nicht mehr". Westfalenpost. Archived from the original on 2023-07-26.
  34. ^ a b c Daniel Friedrich Sturm (18 March 2024). "Abschied aus dem Parlament: Diese Abgeordneten gehen vor der Bundestagswahl freiwillig". Der Tagesspiegel. Archived from the original on 2024-03-18.
  35. ^ "FDP-Bundestagsabgeordneter Christoph Hoffmann tritt nicht mehr an". Badische Zeitung. 8 July 2024. Archived from the original on 2024-07-09.
  36. ^ Hagen Eichler (5 July 2024). "Fast 35 Jahre als Abgeordnete: Warum frühere SPD-Landeschefin Katrin Budde ihre politische Karriere beendet". Mitteldeutsche Zeitung. Archived from the original on 2024-07-05.
  37. ^ Volker Uerlings (20 March 2024). "MdB zieht Schlussstrich: Dietmar Nietans Finale im Bundestag". Dürener Zeitung. Archived from the original on 2024-03-20.
  38. ^ Matthias Düngelhoff (13 April 2024). "Bundestagswahl: SPD Gladbeck legt bei Kandidatenkür vor". Westdeutsche Allgemeine Zeitung. Archived from the original on 2024-04-15.
  39. ^ Vivien Timmler (11 July 2024). "Grüne: Tabea Rößner kündigt Abschied aus der Politik an". Süddeutsche Zeitung. Archived from the original on 2024-07-11.
  40. ^ Daniel Rühle (8 May 2022). "Erwin Rüddel fährt langsam runter: Abgeordneter freut sich auf die Zeit nach der politischen Karriere". Rhein-Zeitung. Archived from the original on 2022-05-09.
  41. ^ Helge Thiele (15 April 2024). "l SPD im Kreis Göppingen: Heike Baehrens tritt nicht wieder an". Südwest Presse. Archived from the original on 2024-04-15.
  42. ^ Anna Lehmann (26 March 2024). "Abschied aus der Politik: Roth macht Schluss". Die Tageszeitung. Archived from the original on 2024-03-28.
  43. ^ Sabine Schilling (6 December 2023). "SPD: Thomas Hitschler kandidiert nicht mehr für Bundestag". Die Rheinpfalz. Archived from the original on 2023-12-06.
  44. ^ Jonna Marlin Lausen (26 April 2024). "Abgeordnete für Nordfriesland: Astrid Damerow (CDU) kandidiert nicht bei Bundestagswahl". Schleswig-Holsteinischer Zeitungsverlag. Archived from the original on 2024-04-26.
  45. ^ Winfried Folz (16 July 2024). "Landau Grünen-Politiker Tobias Lindner kandidiert nicht mehr". Die Rheinpfalz. Archived from the original on 2024-07-16.
  46. ^ Klaus Irion (19 July 2024). "Nun auch Paukenschlag in der SPD: Martin Rosemann tritt auch nicht mehr als Bundestagskandidat an". Schwäbische Zeitung. Archived from the original on 2024-07-20.
  47. ^ Martina Herzog (9 April 2024). "„Gleichberechtigte Elternschaft und Spitzenpolitik sind nicht vereinbar": Kindler zieht sich aus Bundestag zurück". Hannoversche Allgemeine Zeitung. Archived from the original on 2024-04-09.
  48. ^ Johannes Heeg (5 April 2024). "Bundestagsnominierung der CDU: Nachfolger für Grundmann gesucht". Weser-Kurier. Archived from the original on 2024-04-05.
  49. ^ Dirk Anger (1 March 2024). "Entscheidung steht: Maria Klein-Schmeink hört im Bundestag auf". Münstersche Zeitung. Archived from the original on 2024-03-03.
  50. ^ Jörn Tüffers (24 April 2024). "Dagmar Andres schafft Klarheit: SPD-Abgeordnete aus Rhein-Erft will 2025 nicht mehr in den Bundestag". Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger. Archived from the original on 2024-04-24.
  51. ^ Oliver Sander (22 April 2024). "CDU-Bundestagsabgeordneter: Michael Grosse-Brömer tritt nicht wieder an". Kreiszeitung Wochenblatt. Archived from the original on 2024-05-05.
  52. ^ Christoph Kleinau (23 July 2024). "Hermann Gröhe (CDU) verzichtet auf weitere Bundestags-Kandidatur: „Drei Jahrzehnte im Parlament sind die größte Ehre meines Lebens"". Rheinische Post. Archived from the original on 2024-07-24.
  53. ^ "SPD-Abgeordneter Udo Schiefner tritt nicht mehr an". Rheinische Post. 31 July 2024. Archived from the original on 2024-08-04.
  54. ^ Markus Schön (27 January 2024). "Nach 31 Jahren ist Schluss: MdB Max Straubinger (CSU) kandidiert nicht mehr für den Bundestag". Passauer Neue Presse. Archived from the original on 2024-01-27.
  55. ^ Björn Stöckemann (11 July 2024). "Hildesheimer SPD-Abgeordneter Bernd Westphal will nicht wieder in den Bundestag". Hildesheimer Allgemeine Zeitung. Archived from the original on 2024-07-15.
  56. ^ "Politik: Walter-Rosenheimer tritt nicht mehr an". Süddeutsche Zeitung. 23 February 2024. Archived from the original on 2024-02-25.
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