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File:Nationwide polls for the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries.svg

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Summary

Description
English: A combination of nationwide opinion polls during the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries. The trend lines are Local Regressions with α = 0.8 and 95% confidence interval ribbons. The point sizes and trend lines are weighted according to the margin of error of each poll.
Date
Source Own work
Author Abjiklam

Licensing

I, the copyright holder of this work, hereby publish it under the following license:
w:en:Creative Commons
attribution share alike
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Code

The graph is generated by the following R script, largely inspired by this file.

library(RCurl)
library(reshape)
library(htmltab)
library(ggplot2)
library(stringr)
library(scales)

#get the table from the url
theurl <- getURL("https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_2016_presidential_primaries", ssl.verifyPeer=FALSE)
table <- htmltab(theurl, which=3)
table2 <- htmltab(theurl, which=4)

table = table[,1:6]
table2 = table2[,c(1:5,7)]

names(table) <- c("Source", "Size", "Error", "Date", "Clinton", "Sanders")
names(table2) <- names(table)

df = rbind(table, table2)

for (i in c(3, 5:7)) {
  df[[i]] = as.numeric(sub("%", "", df[[i]]))/100
}

df$Date = sub("[0-9]+\\s*–\\s*([0-9]+)", "\\1", df$Date)
df$Date = sub(".*–", "", df$Date)
df$Date = sub("[0-9]+\\s*-\\s*([0-9]+)", "\\1", df$Date)
df$Date = sub(".*-", "", df$Date)
df$Date = trimws(df$Date)
df$Date = as.Date(df$Date, format="%B %d, %Y")

df$Size = as.numeric(sub(",", "", df$Size))

df$Error = 1/sqrt(df$Size)
mdata <- melt(df, id=c("Date", "Source", "Error", "Size"))

names(mdata)[5:6] = c("Candidate", "Support")

colors = c("#D4AA00", "#228b22")
labels = c("Clinton", "Sanders")

results = mdata

#breaks() returns n evenly spaced numbers between x and y
#whose squares are divisible by p
#the function is used for the legend
breaks <- function(x, y, n, p) {
  x = sqrt(ceiling(as.integer(x^2) / p) * p)
  y = sqrt(floor(as.integer(y^2) / p) * p)
  s = seq(x, y, length.out=n)
  for (i in 2:(n-1)) {
    s[i] = sqrt(round(s[i]^2 / p) * p)
  }
  return(unique(s))
}

d = ggplot(results, aes(x=Date, y=Support, colour=Candidate, size=1/Error, weight=1/Error)) +
  geom_point(alpha=0.7) + 
  geom_smooth(span=0.8, show.legend=F) + 
  scale_colour_manual(values = colors) + 
  labs(title="Nationwide opinion polling for the 2016 Democratic Party primaries") + 
  scale_size_area(max_size=3,
                  breaks=function(x) breaks(x[1], x[2], 5, 100), #5 numbers divisible by 100
                  labels=function(x) comma_format()(x^2),
                  name="Sample Size") + 
  scale_y_continuous(breaks=seq(0,1,0.1), minor_breaks=seq(0,1,0.02),
                     labels=percent, limits=c(0.2,0.7)) + 
  scale_x_date(labels=date_format("%b %d"),
               breaks=sort(c(seq(as.Date("2016/1/1"), as.Date("2016/7/28"), "month"),
                             seq(as.Date("2016/1/15"), as.Date("2016/7/28"), "month"),
                             as.Date("2016/7/28"))),
               limits=c(as.Date("2016/1/1"), as.Date("2016/7/28"))) +
  theme(panel.grid.minor=element_line(size=0.2),
        panel.grid.major=element_line(size=0.6))

#save plot as "dp.svg"
svg(filename="dp.svg", 
    width=9, 
    height=5, 
    pointsize=12,
    bg="transparent")
d
dev.off()

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depicts

7 April 2016

File history

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(newest | oldest) View (newer 10 | ) (10 | 20 | 50 | 100 | 250 | 500)
Date/TimeThumbnailDimensionsUserComment
current16:32, 29 June 2016Thumbnail for version as of 16:32, 29 June 2016810 × 450 (232 KB)Χupdate
14:10, 8 June 2016Thumbnail for version as of 14:10, 8 June 2016810 × 450 (228 KB)Χupdate
11:57, 6 June 2016Thumbnail for version as of 11:57, 6 June 2016810 × 360 (226 KB)Χupdate
03:41, 31 May 2016Thumbnail for version as of 03:41, 31 May 2016810 × 360 (223 KB)Χbetter sample size legend
04:33, 30 May 2016Thumbnail for version as of 04:33, 30 May 2016810 × 360 (220 KB)Χkept only major candidates (as was done for the republican graph)
15:50, 29 May 2016Thumbnail for version as of 15:50, 29 May 2016810 × 360 (238 KB)Χupdate
14:42, 22 May 2016Thumbnail for version as of 14:42, 22 May 2016810 × 360 (233 KB)Χupdate
22:24, 16 May 2016Thumbnail for version as of 22:24, 16 May 2016810 × 360 (231 KB)Χupdate
17:42, 8 May 2016Thumbnail for version as of 17:42, 8 May 2016810 × 360 (229 KB)Χupdate
12:36, 2 May 2016Thumbnail for version as of 12:36, 2 May 2016810 × 360 (225 KB)Χupdate
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