Speaking to the Western Association of Venture Capitalists today. Over lunch, and a smaller session with the Board:

In less than one month, this decade will be over. As we used to say in the Clinton administration, mistakes were made.

Healthcare. Does anyone understand what is happening? [no hands] Here it is. If you are an insurance company in America, it makes no sense to insure a 57 year old with diabetes. If you are a 24 year old, it makes no sense for you to take medical insurance. All variations of the solution force people who don’t need insurance to buy it, and that covers the 57 year old with diabetes. The only fix is to force people who don’t need it to buy it.

Afghanistan: There was no passion in the votes. The usual suspects were for and against. That’s because nobody has a better idea. It took 5 months to split the baby – we’ll give them 30K more troops but withdraw them in 2011. If you want to know what a quagmire looks like, this is it. Obama started with 50K troops, added 20K, and now 30K more.

Khazai is amazingly cynical and corrupt. The country is run by warlords and drug lords, and they don’t want a government in Kabul. The deal was that they would deliver the votes if you leave us alone. And if you want a job, you have to work for them. Unlike The French Connection, they now process the heroin into cakes, and it is very portable.

Do you know how much the average marine carries in Afghanistan? 117 lbs. on average. (It’s largely body armor, most recently to protect the underarms from snipers who can hit that target when arms are raised.) And it is not flat terrain. Imagine the cost in medical bills when they turn 45 years old with back pain. That’s why the total cost of the wars is $3 trillion.

The Taliban is only 4% of the people, but if chaos reigns, they will kill all the barbers and math teachers.

I am very dark on the climate question. I wish I had better news.

2010: I’m a Democrat, obviously. I don’t have any good news for you. We are going to lose the House. That’s going to happen.

Now the Republicans don’t like their own party. And everyone else can’t stand them.

But if unemployment is over 10%, the incumbent will not win.

2012: If you look at the polls of how favorable people regard the Democratic Party and add their regard of the Republican Party, it’s the lowest it’s ever been. The trend is declining faith in political parties. Partisanship will be worse in 2012. Somebody will rise up as a third party.

So, you are probably imagining a fiscal conservative, who is socially liberal, and supports free trade and invests in education. [cheers] Sure, that’s what most grad school educated people would say. But that’s not the third party that you’re going to see. The new party will campaign that America best ought to start taking care of its own. It will be a combo of the white GGGG Republicans who care about God, Guns, Gays and now Gold and the racially diverse Democrats that have seen their lives crushed and they want a champion to stand up for them. They look to government to soften the harsher edges of capitalism and they see an unfair system, which Obama has not changed.

So you just need a modern antichrist to step in . It wouldn’t be hard to write a stump speech for them.

Here are three observations: 1) We have an expensive system of retirement security. The only area of healthcare where the U.S. leads is in life expectancy over 65 years old. And that’s expensive. 2) We spend more on defense than all other countries combined. 3) Of the 30 Industrialized nations, we have the lowest per capita taxes paid.

Something is going to change by 2013.

If there is an answer, it is in this room. We have to become more productive. The real credit for the Clinton economic boom goes to an an enormous productivity spike. If we are going to have another, it will come from you guys. Deep down inside, we have great young people, and we are the best in the world at innovation.

Q: Can you compare Obama in 2010 to Clinton losing Congress in 1992-3? A; Well, I would guess that the health care bill will pass by a slight margin. Clinton did not have that. But we don’t know if Obama can take a lick. He hasn’t been beat yet. But Clinton did not have the war. And this is a nasty, nasty recession. With Clinton, we got beat so bad it looked like we couldn’t govern. We just weren’t that good in the first two years. The ’93 budget was a great accomplishment, but it was not apparent then.

Q: VCs represent only .1% of investment but create 20% of GDP growth and new jobs. How can we have political representation relative to our impact, when we are so few?

A: What percent of the country is Jewish? [long pause, 2% is offered up as a guess] Right. But just try to go against Israel. It would be end of days, wrath of god type stuff. I say this with admiration. They are very well organized.

Figure out who will be in power Rangel won’t be there long. He’s 76 and might get his ass indicted. Schumer is with you, but forget Kansas.

Q: China?