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Summary

Description
English: What does the future of our carbon dioxide and greenhouse gas emissions look like. In the visualization we show a range of potential future scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions (measured in gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents), based on data from Climate Action Tracker. Interactive data of these pathways can be found here. Here, five scenarios are shown:
  • No climate policies: projected future emissions if no climate policies were implemented; this would result in an estimated 4.1-4.8°C warming by 2100 (relative to pre-industrial temperatures)
  • Current climate policies: projected warming of 2.5-2.9°C by 2100 based on current implemented climate policies
  • National pledges: if all countries achieve their current targets/pledges set within the Paris climate agreement, it’s estimated average warming by 2100 will be 2.1°C. This will go well beyond the overall target of the Paris Agreement to keep warming “well below 2°C”.
  • 2°C consistent: there are a range of emissions pathways that would be compatible with limiting average warming to 2°C by 2100. This would require a significant increase in ambition of the current pledges within the Paris Agreement.
  • 1.5°C consistent: there are a range of emissions pathways that would be compatible with limiting average warming to 1.5°C by 2100. However, all would require a very urgent and rapid reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions.
Date Creation: 1 December 2019. Update: 1 April 2022
Source Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser (2017) - "CO₂ and Greenhouse Gas Emissions". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#future-emissions [Online Resource], adapted for svg and smartphone by Eric Fisk
Author Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser, adapted for svg and smartphone by Eric Fisk
Other versions French version

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Future emissions scenarios, including Paris climate pledges

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inception

1 December 2019

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Date/TimeThumbnailDimensionsUserComment
current21:51, 8 August 2022Thumbnail for version as of 21:51, 8 August 2022960 × 816 (229 KB)EfbrazilUpdated to April 2022 data
16:10, 13 July 2021Thumbnail for version as of 16:10, 13 July 2021960 × 816 (501 KB)Amitchell125text style amended
00:05, 24 August 2020Thumbnail for version as of 00:05, 24 August 2020960 × 816 (177 KB)EfbrazilUploaded a work by Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser, adapted for svg and smartphone by Eric Fisk from Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser (2017) - "CO₂ and Greenhouse Gas Emissions". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#future-emissions [Online Resource], adapted for svg and smartphone by Eric Fisk with UploadWizard

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