English: Comparison of Models from Ch. 6 of IPCC First Assessment Report (FAR) published in 1990 to current observations. Data from figure 6.11 b. Scenarios as described therein.
equilibrium sensitivity used is 2.5 deg C/doubling. IPCC also ran with 4 deg C/doubling and 1.5 deg/doubling. The current best estimate is around 3 deg. C, so the 2.5 deg /doubling is the model used.
Notes:
BaU=Business as Usual, however it should be noted that business did not go as usual due to the implementation of the montreal protocol which substantially reduced CFC emissions.
Added 0.71 to GISTEMP to get "relative to prehistoric." 1975 value for the IPCC predictions was 0.71 and average of GISTEMP from 1970-1980 was less than 0.01 from zero.
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