English: Estimated Funding Gaps in Medicare and Social Security

Economist Bruce Bartlett wrote in Forbes in May 2009: "To summarize, we see that taxpayers are on the hook for Social Security and Medicare by these amounts: Social Security, 1.3% of GDP; Medicare part A, 2.8% of GDP; Medicare part B, 2.8% of GDP; and Medicare part D, 1.2% of GDP. This adds up to 8.1% of GDP." He cited and linked various reports from the Social Security and Medicare Trustees in the article and explained how these gaps represent the present value of program deficits in perpetuity. He also wrote that federal personal income tax revenues are about 10% historically, so if this 8.1% were applied just to income taxes, that would be an 81% tax increase.

The Heritage Foundation estimates that the 30 year historical average federal tax collections were 18.4% of GDP.