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Post-election pendulum for the 2001 Australian federal election

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See also: Australian federal election, 2001
See also: Results of the 2001 Australian federal election (House of Representatives)

The Mackerras pendulum as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or instant-runoff voting.

The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the crossbenches according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.[1]

Government seats (82)
[2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]
Marginal
Hinkler Qld Paul Neville NAT 0.04
Solomon NT Dave Tollner CLP 0.09
Farrer NSW Sussan Ley LIB 0.14 v NAT
Adelaide SA Trish Worth LIB 0.22
Dobell NSW Ken Ticehurst LIB 0.38
Canning WA Don Randall LIB 0.38
Parramatta NSW Ross Cameron LIB 1.15
McEwen Vic Fran Bailey LIB 1.20
Paterson NSW Bob Baldwin LIB 1.42
Herbert Qld Peter Lindsay LIB 1.62
Richmond NSW Larry Anthony NAT 1.68
Eden-Monaro NSW Gary Nairn LIB 1.69
Deakin Vic Phil Barresi LIB 1.74
Hindmarsh SA Chris Gallus LIB 1.86
Longman Qld Mal Brough LIB 2.72
Page NSW Ian Causley NAT 2.77
Petrie Qld Teresa Gambaro LIB 3.42
La Trobe Vic Bob Charles LIB 3.67
Makin SA Trish Draper LIB 3.76
Moreton Qld Gary Hardgrave LIB 4.21
Kalgoorlie WA Barry Haase LIB 4.34
Cowper NSW Luke Hartsuyker NAT 4.73
Dunkley Vic Bruce Billson LIB 5.42
Lindsay NSW Jackie Kelly LIB 5.47
Corangamite Vic Stewart McArthur LIB 5.67
Warringah NSW Tony Abbott LIB 5.67 v IND
Dickson Qld Peter Dutton LIB 5.97
Fairly safe
Moore WA Mal Washer LIB 6.04
Aston Vic Chris Pearce LIB 6.17
Leichhardt Qld Warren Entsch LIB 6.39
Pearce WA Judi Moylan LIB 6.87
Robertson NSW Jim Lloyd LIB 6.98
Casey Vic Tony Smith LIB 7.16
Boothby SA Andrew Southcott LIB 7.35
Forde Qld Kay Elson LIB 7.38
Forrest WA Geoff Prosser LIB 7.61
Flinders Vic Greg Hunt LIB 7.62
Bennelong NSW John Howard LIB 7.70
Wentworth NSW Peter King LIB 7.86
Tangney WA Daryl Williams LIB 7.97
Dawson Qld De-Anne Kelly NAT 7.99
Gippsland Vic Peter McGauran NAT 8.02
Sturt SA Christopher Pyne LIB 8.18
Higgins Vic Peter Costello LIB 8.39
Blair Qld Cameron Thompson LIB 8.50
Ryan Qld Michael Johnson LIB 8.62
Macquarie NSW Kerry Bartlett LIB 8.67
Parkes NSW John Cobb NAT 8.74
Menzies Vic Kevin Andrews LIB 8.94
Fairfax Qld Alex Somlyay LIB 9.21
Goldstein Vic David Kemp LIB 9.48
Wannon Vic David Hawker LIB 9.58
Hume NSW Alby Schultz LIB 9.79
Macarthur NSW Pat Farmer LIB 9.96
Safe
Hughes NSW Danna Vale LIB 10.41
Grey SA Barry Wakelin LIB 10.56
Wide Bay Qld Warren Truss NAT 10.73
Kooyong Vic Petro Georgiou LIB 10.94
Indi Vic Sophie Panopoulos LIB 11.19
Lyne NSW Mark Vaile NAT 11.24
Fisher Qld Peter Slipper LIB 12.06
Fadden Qld David Jull LIB 12.29
McPherson Qld Margaret May LIB 12.55
Mayo SA Alexander Downer LIB 12.87
North Sydney NSW Joe Hockey LIB 13.21
Curtin WA Julie Bishop LIB 13.91
Cook NSW Bruce Baird LIB 14.00
Wakefield SA Neil Andrew LIB 14.57
Gilmore NSW Joanna Gash LIB 14.63
Gwydir NSW John Anderson NAT 14.88
Groom Qld Ian Macfarlane LIB 15.09
Moncrieff Qld Steven Ciobo LIB 15.42
Berowra NSW Philip Ruddock LIB 15.65
Barker SA Patrick Secker LIB 15.69
Maranoa Qld Bruce Scott NAT 16.01
Mackellar NSW Bronwyn Bishop LIB 16.87
O'Connor WA Wilson Tuckey LIB 19.09
Mallee Vic John Forrest NAT 19.93
Very safe
Bradfield NSW Brendan Nelson LIB 21.16
Mitchell NSW Alan Cadman LIB 21.32
Murray Vic Sharman Stone LIB 23.93
Riverina NSW Kay Hull NAT 29.88
Opposition seats (65)
[2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]
Marginal
Bowman Qld Con Sciacca ALP 1.42
Stirling WA Jann McFarlane ALP 1.58
Hasluck WA Sharryn Jackson ALP 1.78
Swan WA Kim Wilkie ALP 2.04
Bass Tas Michelle O'Byrne ALP 2.06
Kingston SA David Cox ALP 2.42
McMillan Vic Christian Zahra ALP 2.46
Ballarat Vic Catherine King ALP 2.73
Chisholm Vic Anna Burke ALP 2.77
Isaacs Vic Ann Corcoran ALP 2.81
Bank NSW Daryl Melham ALP 2.88
Greenway NSW Frank Mossfield ALP 3.11
Brisbane Qld Arch Bevis ALP 3.13
Bendigo Vic Steve Gibbons ALP 3.57
Lowe NSW John Murphy ALP 3.81
Lilley Qld Wayne Swan ALP 4.83
Lingiari NT Warren Snowdon ALP 5.29
Cowan WA Graham Edwards ALP 5.51
Burke Vic Brendan O'Connor ALP 5.51
Bruce Vic Alan Griffin ALP 5.55
Jagajaga Vic Jenny Macklin ALP 5.64
Griffith Qld Kevin Rudd ALP 5.66
Melbourne Ports Vic Michael Danby ALP 5.69
Braddon Tas Sid Sidebottom ALP 5.96
Fairly safe
Barton NSW Robert McClelland ALP 6.02
Charlton NSW Kelly Hoare ALP 6.66
Rankin Qld Craig Emerson ALP 6.68
Capricornia Qld Kirsten Livermore ALP 6.86
Newcastle NSW Sharon Grierson ALP 6.91
Franklin Tas Harry Quick ALP 8.04
Oxley Qld Bernie Ripoll ALP 8.14
Lyons Tas Dick Adams ALP 8.17
Werriwa NSW Mark Latham ALP 8.49
Corio Vic Gavan O'Connor ALP 8.70
Shortland NSW Jill Hall ALP 8.78
Kingsford Smith NSW Laurie Brereton ALP 8.90
Canberra ACT Annette Ellis ALP 9.44
Safe
Brand WA Kim Beazley ALP 10.05
Bonython SA Martyn Evans ALP 10.42
Cunningham NSW Stephen Martin ALP 10.65
Fremantle WA Carmen Lawrence ALP 10.72
Hunter NSW Joel Fitzgibbon ALP 10.86
Hotham Vic Simon Crean ALP 11.01
Perth WA Stephen Smith ALP 11.21
Prospect NSW Janice Crosio ALP 12.81
Fraser ACT Bob McMullan ALP 12.96
Holt Vic Anthony Byrne ALP 13.32
Denison Tas Duncan Kerr ALP 14.26
Port Adelaide SA Rod Sawford ALP 14.65
Sydney NSW Tanya Plibersek ALP 15.04
Throsby NSW Jennie George ALP 15.10
Blaxland NSW Michael Hatton ALP 15.21
Chifley NSW Roger Price ALP 15.29
Lalor Vic Julia Gillard ALP 15.63
Reid NSW Laurie Ferguson ALP 16.87
Watson NSW Leo McLeay ALP 17.31
Maribyrnong Vic Bob Sercombe ALP 17.38
Calwell Vic Maria Vamvakinou ALP 17.73
Scullin Vic Harry Jenkins ALP 19.17
Wills Vic Kelvin Thomson ALP 19.42
Very safe
Melbourne Vic Lindsay Tanner ALP 20.09
Grayndler NSW Anthony Albanese ALP 21.29
Fowler NSW Julia Irwin ALP 21.50
Gellibrand Vic Nicola Roxon ALP 21.78
Batman Vic Martin Ferguson ALP 25.08
Crossbench seats (3)
[2][4]
New England NSW Tony Windsor IND 8.30 v NAT
Kennedy Qld Bob Katter IND 19.73 v ALP
Calare NSW Peter Andren IND 25.04 v NAT

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Sakkal, Paul; Rooney, Kieran (14 November 2023). "Veteran Liberal Party MP Russell Broadbent quits party, moves to crossbench". The Sydney Morning Herald.
  2. ^ a b c Car, Adam. "2001 House of Representatives: NSW". Psephos Adam Carr's Election Archive. Retrieved 2024-09-13.
  3. ^ a b Car, Adam. "2001 House of Representatives: Vic". Psephos Adam Carr's Election Archive. Retrieved 2024-09-13.
  4. ^ a b c Car, Adam. "2001 House of Representatives: Qld". Psephos Adam Carr's Election Archive. Retrieved 2024-09-13.
  5. ^ a b Car, Adam. "2001 House of Representatives: WA". Psephos Adam Carr's Election Archive. Retrieved 2024-09-13.
  6. ^ a b Car, Adam. "2001 House of Representatives: SA". Psephos Adam Carr's Election Archive. Retrieved 2024-09-13.
  7. ^ a b Car, Adam. "2001 House of Representatives: Tas". Psephos Adam Carr's Election Archive. Retrieved 2024-09-13.
  8. ^ a b Car, Adam. "2001 House of Representatives: ACT". Psephos Adam Carr's Election Archive. Retrieved 2024-09-13.
  9. ^ a b Car, Adam. "2001 House of Representatives: NT". Psephos Adam Carr's Election Archive. Retrieved 2024-09-13.
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