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The Politics of Modelling, Numbers Between Science and Policy

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The Politics of Modelling, Numbers Between Science and Policy
EditorsAndrea Saltelli
Monica Di Fiore
LanguageEnglish
SubjectsMathematical modelling
Social statistics
Politics
PublisherOxford University Press
Publication date
August 2023
Pages272
ISBN978-0198872412

The Politics of Modelling, Numbers Between Science and Policy is a multi-authors book edited by Andrea Saltelli and Monica Di Fiore and published in August 2023 by Oxford University Press.

Synopsis

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The Politics of Modelling elaborates and expands on themes of responsible modelling from a manifesto published in the journal Nature in 2020.[1] The text is structured into three main sections: Meeting Models, The Rules, and The Rules in Practice.[2][3] The combination of theory with policy relevant examples makes the book accessible to modellers, researchers of modelling, and policy makers.[3]

The volume comes with a foreword of Wendy Nelson Espeland and a preface of Daniel Sarewitz, with chapters from Andy Stirling, Wolfgang Drechsler, Philip B. Stark, Ting Xu, Paolo Vineis, Andrea Saltelli, and other scholars.

Reception

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The book argues that models live in a “state of exception” provided by their access to a wealth of methodology of analysis, and by their epistemic authority borrowed from mathematics. This state allows models to better defend an appearance of neutrality that is appreciated by policymakers in search of a justification.[4] A review published in the Science notes that the volume incorporated insights from science and technology studies to explore modeling beyond its technical aspects[2] A second review[3] in the Minerva notes the book’s reference to the works of historians Margaret Morrison and Mary S. Morgan in considering models as mediators whereby models are simultaneously a tool, an interpretation, and a representation of the system.[5]: 205 

The book contrasts the danger of cynicism with suggestions to make models serve society, based on theory, examples, and a call for participatory modelling linked to Post-normal science, sensitivity auditing and the concept of extended peer community.[3] Reviewers also noted[3] that the book ignores other ongoing efforts in enhancing or formalizing modelling practices such as the framework proposed van Voorn,[6] and the Good Modelling Practice handbook developed for water management purposes in the Netherlands.[7] Reviewers pointed to the book's failure to cover the ‘fit-for purpose’[8] movement in modelling.[2] Other points where the book was found to be lacking by critics were the challenge of participatory modelling, related to gaming and power relations such as Arnsteinds’ ladder of participation.[3]

A review in Mathematics Magazine[9] notes the book’s attention to sensitivity analysis: "[The authors] stress the importance of sensitivity analysis, with a highly-illustrative and illuminating example that analyzes the EOQ (economic order quantity) formula."

References

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  1. ^ Saltelli, Andrea; et al. (June 2020). "Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto". Nature. 582 (7813): 482–484. Bibcode:2020Natur.582..482S. doi:10.1038/d41586-020-01812-9. hdl:1885/219031. PMID 32581374.
  2. ^ a b c Nabavi, E., Razavi, S. (17 November 2023). "The responsibility turnThe Politics of Modelling: Numbers Between Science and Policy Andrea Saltelli and Monica Di Fiore, Eds. Oxford University Press, 2023. 272 pp". Science. 382 (6672): 775. doi:10.1126/science.adl3473. ISSN 1095-9203. PMID 37972171. S2CID 265221551.
  3. ^ a b c d e f Melsen, L. A. (17 February 2024). "The Politics Behind Overinterpreted and Underexplored Models: A Review of Andrea Saltelli and Monica Di Fiore (eds.), The Politics of Modelling – Numbers between Science and Policy". Minerva. 62: 141–144. doi:10.1007/s11024-024-09524-4. ISSN 1573-1871. S2CID 267700922. Retrieved 17 February 2024.
  4. ^ Tarran, B. (2023), 'I would like modellers to be less ambitious in developing monster models that are impossible to inspect', retrieved 25 November 2023
  5. ^ Saltelli, A.; Di Fiore, M. (2023), Saltelli, Andrea; Di Fiore, Monica (eds.), The politics of modelling. Numbers between science and policy, Oxford: Oxford University Press, doi:10.1093/oso/9780198872412.001.0001, ISBN 978-0-19-887241-2
  6. ^ Voorn, G. A. K. van, Verburg, R. W., Kunseler, E.-M., Vader, J., Janssen, P. H. M. (1 September 2016). "A checklist for model credibility, salience, and legitimacy to improve information transfer in environmental policy assessments". Environmental Modelling & Software. 83: 224–236. Bibcode:2016EnvMS..83..224V. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.06.003. hdl:1874/334178. ISSN 1364-8152. S2CID 8363664.
  7. ^ Waveren, H., Groot, S., Scholten, H., Geer, F., Wösten, H., Koeze, R., Noort, J. (1 January 1999). Good Modelling Practice Handbook. STOWA. ISBN 978-90-5773-056-6.
  8. ^ Hamilton, S. H., Pollino, C. A., Stratford, D. S., Fu, B., Jakeman, A. J. (1 February 2022). "Fit-for-purpose environmental modeling: Targeting the intersection of usability, reliability and feasibility". Environmental Modelling & Software. 148: 105278. Bibcode:2022EnvMS.14805278H. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105278. ISSN 1364-8152. S2CID 245155761.
  9. ^ Campbell, P. J. (14 March 2024). "Reviews: Saltelli, Andrea, and Monica Di Fiore (eds.), The Politics of Modelling: Numbers Between Science and Policy, Oxford University Press". Mathematics Magazine. 97 (2). Taylor & Francis: 234–235. doi:10.1080/0025570X.2024.2313390. ISSN 0025-570X.
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See also

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  • Desrosières, Alain. (1998). The Politics of Large Numbers: a history of statistical reasoning, Harvard University Press.
  • Scoones, I., & Stirling, A. (2020). The Politics of Uncertainty. (I. Scoones & A. Stirling, Eds.), Abingdon, Oxon; New York, NY: Routledge, 2020. Series: Pathways to sustainability: Routledge. doi:10.4324/9781003023845
  • Mennicken, A., & Salais, R. (Eds.). (2022b). The New Politics of Numbers: Utopia, Evidence and Democracy, Palgrave Macmillan.
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