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Greenhouse gas emissions by China

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This article is about greenhouse gas emissions by China, and their mitigation. For everything else related to climate change in China, see Climate change in China.
China has the most total annual emissions (area of rectangle) of any nation, and has higher than average per capita emissions.[1]
Cumulatively over time, China is the second-largest contributor nation to global economic damage from emissions, following the U.S.[2]

China's total greenhouse gas emissions are the world's highest of any country, accounting for 35% of the world's total according to the International Energy Agency. The country's per capita greenhouse gas emissions are the 34th highest of any country, as of 2023.

Greenhouse gas emissions stem mainly from coal burning, including coal power, coal mining,[3] and blast furnaces producing iron and steel.[4] 79% of CO2 emissions are from the burning of coal.[5]

When measuring production-based emissions, China emitted over 12.6 gigatonnes (Gt) CO2eq of greenhouse gases in 2023, 35% of the world total.[6][7][8] When measuring in consumption-based terms, which adds emissions associated with imported goods and extracts those associated with exported goods, China accounted for 13 gigatonnes (Gt) or 25% of global emissions in 2019.[9] According to the Carbon Majors Database, Chinese state coal production alone accounts for 14% of historic global emissions.[10][clarification needed]

As of 2019, the country's greenhouse gas emissions exceeded the combined emissions of the developed world.[9][7][11] China's per capita emissions correspond to over 10.1 tonnes CO2eq emitted per person each year, over the world average and the European Union (EU) average but lower than the second largest emitter of greenhouse gases, the United States, with its 17.6 tonnes per person, according to a 2021 analysis by the Rhodium Group.[9][needs update] Analysis by Our World in Data also puts China's per capita emissions at over the world and EU averages but less than averages in Australia, Canada, and the U.S.[12] Accounting for historic emissions, OECD countries produced four times more CO2 in cumulative emissions than China, due to developed countries' early start in industrialization.[7][9] Overall, China is a net exporter of greenhouse emissions.[13]

The targets laid out in China's nationally determined contribution at the Paris Agreement in 2016 will likely be met, but are not enough to combat global warming.[14][needs update] China has committed to peak emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2060.[15] China continues to build coal-fired power stations in 2020 and promised to "phase down" coal use from 2026.[16] According to various analysis, China is estimated to overachieve its renewable energy capacity and emission reduction goals early, but long-term plans are still required to combat the global climate change and meeting the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets.[17][18][19]

Overall data

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China greenhouse emissions by type of greenhouse gas from 1990 - 2016
Since 2000, rising CO2 emissions in China and the rest of world have eclipsed the output of the United States and Europe.[20]

Since 2006, China has been the world's largest emitter of CO2 annually. As of 2023, it had the 34th highest greenhouse gas emissions per capita.[21] In 2023, China produced 35% of global CO2 emissions, according to the International Energy Agency.[6] According to estimates provided by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, China's carbon dioxide emissions in 2006 amounted to 6.2 billion tons, and the United States' co-production in the same year was 5.8 billion tons. In 2006, China's carbon dioxide emissions were 8 percent higher than America's, the agency said.[22]

The per person CO2 emissions in China are rising but still much lower than in the United States.[20]

In 2019, China is estimated to have emitted 27% of the world's greenhouse gases, followed by the US with 11%, then India with 6.6%.[11] By 2020, China produced 64% to 66% of global emissions for the two potent greenhouse gases of tetrafluoromethane and hexafluoroethane, according to a study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.[23]

Impact of 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak

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Further information: COVID-19 pandemic in mainland China

A temporary slowdown in manufacturing, construction, transportation, and overall economic activity during the beginning of the 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak reduced China's greenhouse gas emissions by "about a quarter," as reported in February 2020.[24][25] Nonetheless, for the year April 1, 2020 – March 31, 2021, China's CO2 emissions reached a record high: nearly 12 billion metric tons. Additionally, China's carbon emissions during the first quarter of 2021 were higher than in the first quarters of both 2019 and 2020.[26] Temporary reductions in carbon emissions due to lockdowns and initial economic relief efforts have limited long-term consequences, while the future direction of fiscal stimulus plays a more significant role in influencing long-term carbon emissions.[27]

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China experienced the largest increase in emissions at approximately 565 million tonnes in 2023, exacerbated by a historic decrease in hydropower, pushing its per capita emissions 15% higher than those in advanced economies, according to the International Energy Agency.[28]

In 2024, China recorded a 3% decrease in greenhouse gas emissions compared to the previous year. This development suggests that emissions might have peaked sooner than the 2030 target initially set. The reduction was largely attributed to an expansion in wind and solar power capacities, which largely covered the increased demand for electricity, coupled with a downturn in the property sector that resulted in lower emissions from industries like steel and cement manufacturing. However, several challenges remain, including the technical difficulties of integrating solar energy into the existing power grid and a continued dependence on coal, which experienced a 2% increase in use in 2023.[29]

Emissions by sources

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Most CO2 emissions in China is from coal
Jiangsu Nantong coal-fired power station

Energy production

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See also: Coal power in China

According to the Carbon Majors Database, Chinese state coal production accounts for 14% of historic global emissions, more than double the proportion of the former Soviet Union.[10]

Power is estimated as the largest emitter, with 27% of greenhouse gases produced in 2020 generated by the power sector.[8] Most electricity in China comes from coal, which accounted for 65% of the electricity generation mix in 2019. Electricity generation by renewables has been increasing, with the construction of wind and solar plants doubling from 2019 to 2020.[30]

According to Natural Resources Defense Council, the Chinese power sector is estimated to hit the carbon emission peak around 2029.[31]

Evolution of CO2 emissions by sector in China, 2000 - 2021[32]
Electricity and heat producers Industry Transport Residential Commercial and public services Agriculture Unspecified Final Consumption Other energy industries
2000 1426.85 904.045 248.48 216.849 57.268 47.992 47.512 148.356
2001 1506.574 958.838 254.25 216.959 60.767 51.397 50.102 154.574
2002 1686.007 996.753 276.444 220.345 63.26 56.62 55.03 154.476
2003 1996.101 1136.149 313.144 237.802 70.678 64.753 64.277 182.587
2004 2203.919 1497.944 371.136 265.471 87.1 73.844 67.972 172.197
2005 2373.239 1935.745 397.312 273.592 91.868 83.689 72.48 179.468
2006 2686.187 2083.31 434.811 285.571 98.547 87.65 73.249 212.467
2007 2930.614 2274.395 468.576 291.352 106.923 84.966 75.95 240.48
2008 2961.79 2409.719 507.067 278.806 104.442 81.955 78.504 246.683
2009 3143.741 2601.242 517.074 281.312 110.345 84.198 81.099 311.912
2010 3477.506 2844.073 568.779 297.63 118.769 88.047 81.307 354.473
2011 3954.71 3004.769 621.89 309.302 131.414 92.084 85.456 369.403
2012 4076.159 3042.033 686.126 316.37 140.844 95.651 90.286 374.573
2013 4347.397 3068.123 741.094 329.858 146.711 103.245 95.234 395.549
2014 4389.763 3094.686 770.35 344.191 142.556 104.955 92.268 299.69
2015 4266.271 2995.88 828.462 364.732 150.115 108.81 93.217 327.493
2016 4410.465 2859.402 845.356 374.069 149.073 111.932 89.865 287.538
2017 4705.733 2696.33 877.815 384.552 145.497 114.409 78.904 329.597
2018 5071.184 2790.824 950.956 360.327 133.548 105.085 66.921 309.918
2019 5238.13 2795.073 944.372 332.787 127.773 101.416 57.667 352.331
2020 5376.577 2852.616 901.961 338.289 116.773 102.119 56.31 308.675
2021 5943.08 2832.322 969.447 332.81 112.121 99.358 46.885 312.513

Energy consumption

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According to the 2016 Chinese Statistical Yearbook published by China's National Bureau of Statistics, China's energy consumption was 430,000 (10,000 tons of Standard Coal Equivalent), including 64% coal, 18.1% crude oil, 5.9% natural gas, 12.0% primary electricity, and other energy. Since 2011, the percentage of coal has decreased, and the percentage of crude oil, natural gas, primary electricity, and other energy have increased.[33]

China experienced an increase in electricity demand and usage in 2017 as the economy accelerated.[34] According to the Climate Data Explorer published by World Resources Institute, China, the European Union, and the U.S. contributed to more than 50% of global greenhouse gas emissions.[35] In 2016, China's greenhouse gas emissions accounted for 26% of total global emissions.[36] The energy industry has been the biggest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions since the last decade.[35]

Industry

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In terms of industrial production, China creates 1.26 Gt of greenhouse gases in 2020 and, judging by Climate Watch's chart, there is no downward trend at all. Industrial production accounts for 22.76% of all China's GHG emissions in the latest Climate TRACE data for 2022.[8]

Cement

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Cement is estimated to be 15% of emissions but only a tenth of companies are reporting data as of 2021.[37]

Iron and steel

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Steel is estimated at 15% to 20% of emissions and consolidation of the industry may help.[38]

Transportation

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Transport was estimated in 2021 to be less than 10% of the country's emissions but growing.[39]

Agriculture

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Agriculture accounts for 7.65% of China's greenhouse gas emissions in 2022.[8]

Waste

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China also produces large amounts of greenhouse gases such as methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O) in the process of treating waste. In the 2022 Climate Trace statistics, waste treatment accounts for 7.06% of China's total greenhouse gas emissions. Waste disposal is the fourth largest source of GHG emissions in China, and landfills and incineration still dominate municipal waste disposal in China. As a result of the Chinese government's policy of mandatory waste separation in 11 prefectural-level cities, the GHG emissions from waste disposal are decreasing at an efficiency of 0.1% per year, which is effective, but the implementation of waste separation needs to be strengthened.[8] Most municipal solid waste is sent to landfill.[40]

Coal mine methane

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China is by far the largest emitter of methane from coal mines.[3] China produces over 14% of global methane emissions.[41]

Mitigation

[edit]
See also: Climate change in China § Mitigation, and Climate policy of China
The annual amount of coal plant capacity being retired increased into the mid-2010s.[42] However, the rate of retirement has since stalled,[42] and global coal phase-out is not yet compatible with the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.[43]
In parallel with retirement of some coal plant capacity, other coal plants are still being added, though the annual amount of added capacity has been declining since the 2010s.[44]

China is implementing some policies to mitigate climate change, most of which aim to constrain coal consumption. The Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of China set goals and committed to peak CO2 emissions by 2030 in the latest, and increase the use of non-fossil fuel energy carriers, taking up 20% of the total primary energy supply.[45] If China successfully reached NDC's targets, the GHG emissions level would be 12.8–14.3 GtCO2e in 2030, reducing 64% to 70% of emission intensity below 2005 levels. China has surpassed solar deployment and wind energy deployment targets for 2020.[46][47]

A 2011 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory report predicted that Chinese CO2 emissions will peak around 2030. This is because in many areas such as infrastructure, housing, commercial building, appliances per household, fertilizers, and cement production a maximum intensity will be reached and replacement will take the place of new demand. The 2030 emissions peak also became China's pledge at the Paris COP21 summit. Carbon emission intensity may decrease as policies become strengthened and more effectively implemented, including by more effective financial incentives, and as less carbon intensive energy supplies are deployed. In a "baseline" computer model CO2 emissions were predicted to peak in 2033; in an "Accelerated Improvement Scenario" they were predicted to peak in 2027.[48] China also established 10 binding environmental targets in its Thirteenth Five-Year Plan (2016–2020). These include an aim to reduce carbon intensity by 18% by 2020, as well as a binding target for renewable energy at 15% of total energy, raised from under 12% in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan. According to BloombergNEF the levelized cost of electricity from new large-scale solar power has been below existing coal-fired power stations since 2021.[49]

Policy

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China ratified the Kyoto Protocol as a non-Annex B party without binding targets, and ratified the Paris Agreement to fight climate change.[50] In 2020, China's fourteenth five-year plan contained key climate- and energy-related ideas for energy transition and global efforts to tackle climate change.[51]

Domestic policy and laws

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Forest Law of the People's Republic of China (1998)
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The aim of this law was to conserve and rationally exploit forest resources. It accelerated territorial afforestation and cultivation while also ensuring forest product management, production, and supply in order to meet socialist construction requirements.[52]

Energy Conservation Law (2007)
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The aim of this law was to strengthen energy conservation, especially for key energy-using institutions, as well as to encourage energy efficiency and energy-saving technology. The legislation allowed the government to promote and facilitate the use of renewable energy in a variety of applications.[53]

Renewable Energy Act (2009)
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This Act outlines the responsibilities of the government, businesses, and other users in the production and use of renewable energy. It includes policies and targets relating to mandatory grid connectivity, market control legislation, differentiated pricing, special funds, and tax reliefs, as well as a target of 15 percent renewable energy by 2020.[54]

12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015)
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See also: 12th Five-Year Plan (People's Republic of China)

The 12th Five-Year Plan sought to make domestic consumption and development more economically equitable and environmentally friendly. It also shifted the economy's focus away from heavy industry and resource-intensive manufacturing and into a more consumer-driven, resource-efficient economy.[55]

The National Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation (2013)
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The strategy established clear guidelines and principles for adapting to and mitigating climate change. It includes interventions such as early-warning identification and information-sharing systems at the national and regional levels, an ocean disaster monitoring system, and coastal restoration to protect water supplies, reduce soil erosion, and improve disaster prevention.[56]

National Plan For Tackling Climate Change (2014-2020)
[edit]

The National Plan For Tackling Climate Change is a national law that includes prevention, adaptation, scientific study, and public awareness. By 2020, China plans to reduce carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 40-45 percent compared to 2005 levels, raise the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to 15%, and increase forest area and stock volume by 40 million hectares and 1.3 million m3, respectively, compared to 2005 levels.[57]

Energy Development Strategy Action Plan (2014-2020)
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This plan aimed to reduce China's high energy consumption per unit of GDP through a series of steps and mandatory goals, encouraging more productive, self-sufficient, renewable, and creative energy production and consumption.[58]

Law on the Prevention and Control of Atmospheric Pollution (2016)
[edit]

The aim of this law is to preserve and improve the environment, prevent and regulate air pollution, protect public health, advance ecological civilization, and promote economic and social growth that is sustainable. It demands that robust emission control initiatives be implemented against the pollution caused by the burning of coal, industrial production, motor vehicles and vessels, dust as well as agricultural activities.[59]

13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020)
[edit]
See also: Five-year plans of China

The 13th Five Year Plan published the strategy and pathway for China's development during 2016-2020 and set specific environmental and productivity goals. Peak goals for carbon emissions, energy use, and water use were established in the 13th Five Year Plan. It also stated objectives for increasing industry productivity, removing obsolete or overcapacity production facilities, increasing renewable energy production, and improving green infrastructure.[60]

Emissions trading

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The Chinese Ministry of Finance originally proposed a carbon tax in 2010, to come into effect in 2012 or 2013.[61][62] The tax was never passed; in February 2021 the government instead set up a carbon trading scheme.[63][64][65]

This section is an excerpt from Chinese national carbon trading scheme.[edit]

The Chinese national carbon trading scheme is an intensity-based trading system for carbon dioxide emissions by China, which started operating in 2021.[66][67] This emission trading scheme (ETS) creates a carbon market where emitters can buy and sell emission credits. The scheme will allow carbon emitters to reduce emissions or purchase emission allowances from other emitters. Through this scheme, China will limit emissions while allowing economic freedom for emitters.

China is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG) and many major Chinese cities had severe air pollution through the 2010s,[68] with the situation improving in the 2020s.[69] The scheme is run by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment,[66] which eventually plans to limit emissions from six of China's top carbon dioxide emitting industries.[70] In 2021 it started with its power plants, and covers 40% of China's emissions, which is 15% of world emissions.[71] China was able to gain experience in drafting and implementation of an ETS plan from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), where China was part of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).[68] China's national ETS is the largest of its kind,[71] and will help China achieve its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement.[68] In July 2021, permits were being handed out for free rather than auctioned, and the market price per tonne of CO2e was around RMB 50, roughly half of the EU ETS and the UK ETS but better compared to the US, which has no formal cap-and-trade program.[71]

China also has a policy of forestry carbon credits.[72] Forestry carbon credits are based on the measurement of forest growth, which is converted into carbon emission reduction measurements by government ecological and forestry offices.[72] Owners of forests (who are typically rural families or rural villages) receive carbon tickets (碳票; tan piao) which are tradeable securities.[72]

Vehicles

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Vehicles account for around 8% of the heat-trapping gases released annually in China.[73]

Eco-Cities

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See also: Eco-Cities in China

The Chinese government has strategically promoted Eco-Cities in China as a policy measure for addressing rising greenhouse gas emissions resulting from China's rapid urbanization and industrialization.[74] These projects seek to blend green technologies and sustainable infrastructure to build large, environmentally friendly cities nationwide.[75] The government has launched three programs to incentivize cities to undertake eco-city construction,[76] encouraging hundreds of cities to announce plans for eco-city developments.[77]

Energy efficiency

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Energy efficiency improvements have somewhat offset increases in energy output as China continues to develop. Since 2006, the Chinese government has increased export taxes on energy-inefficient industries, reduced import tariffs on certain non-renewable energy resources, and closed down a number of inefficient power and industrial plants. In 2009, for example, for every two new plants (in terms of energy generation capacity) built, one inefficient plant was closed. China is unique in its closing of so many inefficient plants.[78]

Renewable energy

[edit]
Main article: Renewable energy in China

China is the world's leading investor in wind turbines and other renewable energy technologies[79][80] and produces more wind turbines and solar panels each year than any other country.[81]

China is the world leader in renewable energy deployment, with more than twice the ability of any other nation. China accounted for 43% of global renewable energy capacity additions in 2018.[82] For decades, hydropower has been a major source of energy in China. In the last ten years, wind and solar power have risen significantly. Renewables accounted for approximately a quarter of China's electricity generation in 2018, with 18% coming from hydropower, 5% from wind, and 3% from solar.[82]

Nuclear power is planned to be rapidly expanded. By mid-century fast neutron reactors are seen as the main nuclear power technology which allows much more efficient use of fuel resources.[83]

China has also dictated energy standards for lighting and gas kilometrage for cars.[84]

Targets

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The targets laid out in China's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) in 2016 will likely be met, but are not enough to properly combat global warming.[14] China also established 10 binding environmental targets in its Thirteenth Five-Year Plan (2016–2020). These include an aim to reduce carbon intensity by 18% by 2020, as well as a binding target for renewable energy at 15% of total energy, raised from under 12% in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan. The Thirteenth Five-Year Plan also set, for the first time, a cap on total energy use from all sources: no more than 5 billion tons of coal through 2020.[85]

See also

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References

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