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2024 Moldovan European Union membership referendum

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2024 Moldovan European Union membership referendum
20 October 2024
Do you support the amendment of the Constitution with a view to the accession of the Republic of Moldova to the European Union?
Results
Choice
 Votes %
Yes 750,238 50.39%
No 738,636 49.61%
Valid votes 1,488,874 95.28%
Invalid or blank votes 73,831 4.72%
Total votes 1,562,705 100.00%
Registered voters/turnout 3,023,810 51.68%
Results by district, sectors of Chișinău, abroad and the unrecognized Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic
Yes:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
No:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      90–100%

A nationwide referendum was held in Moldova on 20 October 2024[1] on whether the country should amend the Constitution of Moldova to include the Moldovan citizens' wish for European Union membership, in order to prevent future governments from shifting the country away from its pro-European trajectory.[2][3] The election occured on the same day as the 2024 Moldovan presidential election.

Incumbent president Maia Sandu campaigned for the "yes" side in the referendum.[4] Turnout was above the 33.33% required for the referendum to be considered valid. Though a majority of Moldovans voted in favour of Moldova's EU aspirations, the referendum was described as closer than expected, with instances of vote bribery emerging in the meantime.[5]

Background

See also: Accession of Moldova to the European Union, Moldova–European Union relations, and Moldova–Russia relations

In March 2022, following Russia's invasion of neighboring Ukraine, Moldova submitted an application for EU membership.[6] Subsequently, in June of the same year, Moldova was granted the status of a candidate country by the European Council.[7] In December 2023, the European Council announced its decision to open accession negotiations with Moldova.[8] Moldova set a target date of 2030 for EU accession.[9]

President Sandu had announced in 2023 her intention to seek re-election.[2] Additionally, Sandu announced the launch of an online platform aimed at promoting the referendum and advocating for the benefits of EU membership to the country.[2] Observers noted Sandu is gearing up to focus her efforts on EU integration, an area where she and her party PAS have experienced consistent success in order to be re-elected.[10]

In March 2024, Sandu expressed her hope that the referendum will coincide with the presidential elections scheduled for the autumn. Sandu said; "It is important to hold a referendum now because it is a historic occasion, awaited for three decades. The European Union member states are more open than ever, we have the necessary political will for this step, and our citizens want to be part of the EU."[2]

On 21 March 2024, the Parliament of Moldova endorsed a resolution of 54-to-0 to continue the efforts to join the European Union. The declaration asserted, "Only joining Europe can ensure the future of the country as a sovereign, neutral, and fully democratic state". During the vote, all opposition parties in parliament walked out.[11] On 16 May, Parliament approved the holding of the referendum in conjunction with the presidential election on 20 October.[12][13]

Gagauzia

On 2 February 2014, the Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia held two referendums on European integration. In one, 98.4% voted in favour of joining the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia, while in the second 97.2% opposed further integration with the EU. 98.9% also supported the proposition that Gagauzia could declare independence if Moldova unified with Romania.[14] There is concern in Gagauzia that Moldova's integration with the EU could lead to such a unification with EU member Romania, which is unpopular in the autonomous region.[15]

Question

The Romanian-language voting ballot for the referendum. There were also ballots in Russian, Gagauz, Bulgarian, Romani and in Ukrainian.

The text of the question put to the vote was:[16]

Susțineți modificarea Constituției în vederea aderării Republicii Moldova la Uniunea Europeană?

(Do you support the amendment of the Constitution with a view to the accession of the Republic of Moldova to the European Union?)

The options of the vote were "yes" (Romanian: da) and "no" (Romanian: nu).[16]

Campaign

Voting on October 20

At a meeting in Moscow on 21 April 2024, five opposition parties, namely the banned Șor Party, the Revival Party, Chance, Victorie and the Alternative Force for Saving Moldova, announced the formation of an alliance called Victory to oppose EU membership and seek closer relations with Russia. The leader of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, also expressed support for the movement, which revolves around Șor Party leader Ilan Shor. Moldovan Infrastructure Minister Andrei Spînu called the members of the coalition "traitors" and suggested that it had been formed "right next to the Kremlin".[17]

Moldovan authorities have accused Russian-trained groups of plotting to destabilise the exercise. In September 2024, incidents of vandalism on the offices of the Supreme Court of Justice of Moldova and on the public broadcaster Teleradio-Moldova were attributed to the said groups.[18] In October 2024, authorities announced on social media the discovery of a plot by Ilan Shor involving vote bribery and anti-European Union propaganda, following raids on 26 locations nationwide.[19][20] Russia denied the accusations.[21] Security checks were strengthened at Chișinău International Airport following an influx of passengers from Russia carrying large amounts of cash believed to be connected with the plot.[22] On the day of the referendum, the BBC reported that their producer overheard a voter asking an election monitor where she would get paid for her vote, and after being questioned by the network on the issue, she admitted to have been offered 1,000 ₽ to vote for a candidate and option in the referendum which she did not want to disclose, money which she did not end up receiving.[23][24]

In mid-October, Moldova accused Russia of plotting to bus in voters to polling stations at the Moldovan Embassy in Moscow. In response, the EU imposed sanctions on five people and one entity involved in the influence operation, while the United States accused Russia of spending "millions of dollars" to support its preferred parties and spreading disinformation online. The Russian foreign ministry in turn accused Moldova of printing only 10,000 ballots for 500,000 eligible Moldovans living in Russia.[25]

On 17 October, Moldovan authorities announced the discovery of another plot in which 100 youths were trained in Moscow, Serbia and Bosnia by private military groups to foment civil unrest, including using nonlethal weapons to create "mass disorder" during the election and referendum, adding that four people had been arrested and that some of them received several thousand euros in payments.[26]

Referendum

Approximately 2.8 million ballots were issued for the referendum and the presidential election. For the first time in Moldova, ballots were featured not only in Romanian but also in as many as five minority languages. Thus, 2,092,641 ballots were in Romanian, 631,979 in Russian, 3,400 in Gagauz, 991 in Bulgarian, 870 in the Romani language and 115 in Ukrainian. For voters in the pro-Russian separatist region of Transnistria, 90,000 ballots were issued, of which 45,000 were in Romanian and the rest in Russian.[27] Voting was held from 07:00 to 21:00.[28]

For the referendum and the election, 234 polling stations were opened abroad. The first vote in both was cast by Ludmila Vizdoagă, a woman who at the time had lived in South Korea for 19 years. She traveled from Seoul to Tokyo to vote in the polling station for Japan, which was the first to be opened.[27] A polling station was also set up in Varnița to serve voters from Transnistria.[28]

The referendum was boycotted by several Moldovan political figures, including Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) presidential candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo,[29] Our Party (PN) candidate Renato Usatîi[30] and PSRM leader and former president Igor Dodon.[31]

Registered political parties

The Central Electoral Commission of Moldova registered the parties that will take part in the referendum campaign. Of the 15 parties officially registered as of 20 September, 13 were in favor of the YES option and two were in favor of the NO option. Also, some parties such as the PSRM or the Party of Development and Consolidation of Moldova (PDCM) decided to boycott the referendum.[32]

Choice Parties Political orientation Leader Ref
checkY Yes Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) Liberalism Igor Grosu [33]
National Alternative Movement (MAN) Social democracy Ion Ceban [33]
European Social Democratic Party (PSDE) Social democracy Ion Sula [33]
Together Bloc (Împreună)[a] Liberalism Octavian Țîcu [33]
Ecologist Green Party (PV) Green politics Anatolie Prohnițchi [33]
Respect Moldova Movement (MRM) Social conservatism Eugeniu Nichiforciuc [33]
Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) Social liberalism Arina Spătaru [33]
Coalition for Unity and Welfare (CUB) Liberalism Igor Munteanu [33]
Democracy at Home Party (PPDA) Populism Vasile Costiuc [33]
Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) Romanian nationalism Boris Volosatîi [33]
We Political Party (NOI) Social democracy Vladimir Dachi [33]
Party of National Reunification "Acasă" (PRN) Moldovan–Romanian unionism Valentin Dolganiuc [33]
Popular Will Party (PVP) Conservatism Nicolae Gîrbu [33]
Liberal Democratic Party of Moldova (PLDM) (excluded from campaign) Conservatism Vladimir Filat [34]
☒N No Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova (PCRM) Communism Vladimir Voronin [33]
Revival Party (PR) Social conservatism Natalia Parasca [33]
Chance (PȘ) (excluded from campaign) Liberalism Alexei Lungu [32]
Gray X symbolNg Boycott Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) Democratic socialism Igor Dodon [32]
Party of Development and Consolidation (PDCM) Christian democracy Ion Chicu [32]
No position Our Party (PN) Populism Renato Usatîi [32]

Results

ChoiceVotes%
For750,23850.39
Against738,63649.61
Total1,488,874100.00
Valid votes1,488,87495.28
Invalid/blank votes73,8314.72
Total votes1,562,705100.00
Registered voters/turnout3,023,81051.68
Source: CEC

Regional results

Region[35] Valid votes Yes Yes (%) No No (%)
Anenii Noi 29,347 14,336 48.85% 15,011 51.15%
Bălți 49,046 14,430 29.42% 34,616 70.58%
Basarabeasca 8,386 3,075 36.67% 5,311 63.33%
Briceni 22,768 6,518 28.63% 16,250 71.37%
Cahul 38,419 16,830 43.81% 21,589 56.19%
Cantemir 17,101 9,129 53.38% 7,972 46.62%
Călărași 22,925 13,860 60.46% 9,065 39.54%
Căușeni 27,868 13,928 49.98% 13,940 50.02%
Chișinău 348,707 195,215 55.98% 153,492 44.02%
Cimișlia 18,100 9,033 49.91% 9,067 50.09%
Criuleni 27,332 16,453 60.20% 10,879 39.80%
Dondușeni 13,852 3,762 27.16% 10,090 72.84%
Drochia 28,348 9,275 32.72% 19,073 67.28%
Dubăsari 11,735 4,818 41.06% 6,917 58.94%
Edineț 26,083 7,758 29.74% 18,325 70.26%
Fălești 30,570 10,239 33.49% 20,331 66.51%
Florești 29,035 10,917 37.60% 18,118 62.40%
Găgăuzia 57,847 2,985 5.16% 54,862 94.84%
Glodeni 18,659 6,293 33.73% 12,366 66.27%
Hîncești 35,665 20,992 58.86% 14,673 41.14%
Ialoveni 38,480 26,050 67.70% 12,430 32.30%
Left Bank of the Dniester 15,526 5,813 37.44% 9,713 62.56%
Leova 15,782 7,769 49.23% 8,013 50.77%
Nisporeni 19,787 11,889 60.08% 7,898 39.92%
Ocnița 17,224 3,627 21.06% 13,597 78.94%
Orhei 42,508 19,760 46.49% 22,748 53.51%
Rezina 16,151 7,888 48.84% 8,263 51.16%
Rîșcani 22,180 7,123 32.11% 15,057 67.89%
Sîngerei 28,003 11,244 40.15% 16,759 59.85%
Soroca 32,621 12,415 38.06% 20,206 61.94%
Strășeni 32,105 20,023 62.37% 12,082 37.63%
Șoldănești 13,322 5,661 42.49% 7,661 57.51%
Ștefan Vodă 22,104 10,567 47.81% 11,537 52.19%
Taraclia 15,799 2,077 13.15% 13,722 86.85%
Telenești 22,167 12,693 57.26% 9,474 42.74%
Ungheni 37,819 16,355 43.25% 21,464 56.75%
Votes from abroad 235,503 181,254 76.96% 54,249 23.04%
Total 1,488,874 750,238 50.39% 738,636 49.61%

Analysis

Though opinion polling projected a victory for the "yes" campaign, the result was closer than expected. Analysts said ballots from the largely pro-EU diaspora were counted towards the end, giving the "yes" campaign a last-moment push.[5] Only 46% of voters living in Moldova voted yes, with the vote of expatriates living abroad determining the outcome.

Instances of vote buying

President Sandu attributed the close result of the referendum to foreign interference and described it as an "unprecedented assault on democracy", adding that her government had evidence that 300,000 votes had been bought. The European Union also said that the two exercises had taken place "under unprecedented interference and intimidation by Russia and its proxies".[24] European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen praised the referendum result, saying that "In the face of Russia’s hybrid tactics, Moldova shows that it is independent, it is strong and it wants a European future!", while the United States also noted Russian attempts to "undermine Moldova’s election and its European integration".[36] Meanwhile, the Kremlin expressed doubt on how the 'Yes' vote narrowly won and reiterated its denial of allegations of interference.[37]

Earlier in the year, an investigation conducted by the newspaper Ziarul de Gardă revealed the existence of a criminal enterprise headed by Ilan Shor, which received $15 million from the Russian government (the admissions were recorded on camera); those funds were then distributed to around 130,000 people in order to bribe voters and spread disinformation against the European Union.[19][20] Russia denied the accusations.[21][38]

A BBC producer at a polling station in Transnistria found evidence of vote-buying[23] with a first-hand account of a woman asking an election monitor where she could collect the cash promised to her in exchange for her vote.[24]

Notes

  1. ^ Bloc consisting of the Dignity and Truth Platform, the League of Cities and Towns (LOS) and the Party of Changes [ro]

References

  1. ^ "Moldova announces presidential elections, EU accession referendum for October". TVP World. 17 April 2024. Retrieved 17 April 2024.
  2. ^ a b c d "Moldova to hold EU accession referendum in autumn". SeeNews. 19 March 2024. Retrieved 26 March 2024.
  3. ^ "Moldovan president launches campaign to promote EU referendum". Reuters. 18 March 2024. The referendum would vote on enshrining Moldova's EU ambitions in the constitution ensuring that the bid is not derailed by future governments.
  4. ^ "Moldovan president launches campaign to promote EU referendum". Reuters. 18 March 2024. President Maia Sandu launched a campaign to promote an upcoming referendum on Moldova's push to join the European Union on Monday, calling on civil leaders to rally support for the country's accession to the 27-member bloc.
  5. ^ a b "Early results show 50% of Moldovans vote 'yes' at referendum on EU aspiration". Reuters.
  6. ^ "Moldova officially applies for EU membership". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 26 March 2024.
  7. ^ "EU leaders grant Ukraine and Moldova candidate status". POLITICO. 23 June 2022. Retrieved 26 March 2024.
  8. ^ euser (17 December 2023). "European Council decides to open accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova, grants candidate status to Georgia". EU4Digital. Retrieved 26 March 2024.
  9. ^ "Moldova sets 2030 as EU accession target at massive pro-EU rally in Chisinau". 22 May 2023.
  10. ^ Solovyov, Vladimir (26 February 2024). "Moldova's Sandu Stakes Reelection on EU Integration". Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
  11. ^ "Moldovan Parliament backs bid to join EU, but divisions remain". Euractiv. 22 March 2024.
  12. ^ "Moldova to hold referendum on joining EU in October". The Kyiv Independent. 16 May 2024.
  13. ^ "Moldova To Hold Presidential Vote, EU Referendum In October". RFE/RL. 16 May 2024.
  14. ^ "Gagauzia Voters Reject Closer EU Ties For Moldova". Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. 3 February 2014. Retrieved 4 March 2014.
  15. ^ "Concerned About EU Integration, Moldova's Gagauz Region Holds Disputed Referendum". Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. 2 February 2014. Retrieved 4 March 2014.
  16. ^ a b "Pliant informativ pentru alegătorii din localitățile din stânga Nistrului (RO/RU)" (PDF). Comisia Electorală Centrală a Republicii Moldova (in Moldavian). 8 October 2024. Retrieved 11 October 2024.
  17. ^ Tanas, Alexander (21 April 2024). "Moldovan opposition announces new election bloc at Moscow event". Reuters. Retrieved 22 April 2024.
  18. ^ Goncharova, Olena (29 September 2024). "Moldovan broadcaster's headquarters targeted in pre-election vandalism spree". The Kyiv Independent.
  19. ^ a b Bandouil, Sonya (4 October 2024). "Moldova uncovers $15 million Russian-backed plot to influence upcoming elections with bribes and disinformation". The Kyiv Independent.
  20. ^ a b "Moldova Uncovers 'Unprecedented' Pro-Russia Vote Rigging". The Moscow Times. 3 October 2024.
  21. ^ a b "Kremlin Denies Meddling in Moldova's Elections". The Moscow Times. 13 October 2024. Retrieved 21 October 2024.
  22. ^ Rainsford, Sarah (19 October 2024). "Russian cash-for-votes flows into Moldova as nation heads to polls". BBC News. Retrieved 21 October 2024.
  23. ^ a b "BBC finds evidence of vote-buying in Moldova". BBC News. 21 October 2024. Retrieved 21 October 2024.
  24. ^ a b c Rainsford, Sarah; Gozzi, Laura (21 October 2024). "Moldova says 'Yes' to pro-EU constitutional changes by tiny margin". BBC News. Retrieved 21 October 2024.
  25. ^ "Moldova Says Russia Planning to Illegally Bus In Voters to Moscow Polling Stations". The Moscow Times. 16 October 2024. Retrieved 21 October 2024.
  26. ^ McGrath, Stephen (19 October 2024). "EU candidate Moldova to hold two pivotal votes as officials denounce Russian 'hybrid attacks'". Associated Press.
  27. ^ a b Cotoros, Alina (20 October 2024). "Premieră la prezidențiale și referendumul din Republica Moldova: buletine de vot în șase limbi". Adevărul (in Romanian).
  28. ^ a b "Moldovans elect president, vote on EU path as claims of Russian meddling spike". France 24. 20 October 2024.
  29. ^ "Candidatul Partidului Socialist la președinție a refuzat să voteze la refendumul privind aderarea la UE". Adevărul (in Romanian). 20 October 2024.
  30. ^ "După Stoianoglo, și Renato Usatîi a refuzat să voteze la refendumul privind aderarea la UE" (in Romanian). Euronews România. 20 October 2024.
  31. ^ "Igor Dodon: Nu am votat pentru referendum. Consider acest lucru ilegal". Știri.md (in Moldavian). 20 October 2024.
  32. ^ a b c d e Rotari, Iurie (25 September 2024). "Ce partide vor face agitație în campania pentru referendumul despre aderarea R. Moldova la UE". Radio Europa Liberă (in Romanian). Retrieved 26 September 2024.
  33. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o "Înregistrarea participanților la referendum". a.cec.md (in Romanian). Retrieved 26 September 2024.
  34. ^ "Liderul PLDM, Vlad Filat, spune că nu va putea candida la prezidențiale". Radio Europa Liberă (in Romanian). 26 August 2024. Retrieved 18 October 2024.
  35. ^ "Referendum Rezultate". pv.cec.md. Retrieved 21 October 2024.
  36. ^ McGrath, Stephen (21 October 2024). "Moldova narrowly votes to secure path toward EU membership after accusing Russia of interference". Associated Press. Retrieved 21 October 2024.
  37. ^ "Kremlin Says Moldova's Election Results 'Raise Questions,' Denies Meddling Claims". The Moscow Times. 21 October 2024. Retrieved 21 October 2024.
  38. ^ Vagner, Aleksandra (21 October 2024). "Moldova's EU referendum result hangs in balance". Radio Liberty. Retrieved 21 October 2024.
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